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Author Topic: final 1st quarter fundraising predictions from The Hotline  (Read 4981 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 30, 2007, 09:18:01 am »
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link:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/03/the_1st_quarter_1.html

As The Hotline notes, five of the "big six" candidates are already raising $ for the general election as well, but of course that general election $ can't be used for the primary, so it's irrelevant from the perspective of the primary.  So the "real numbers" will be the $ raised for the primary, whereas the following predictions include both primary and general:

Quote
Straight to the point: here are our final predictions, based on reporting with key campaign figures and donors. These figures represent totals -- money raised for both the primary AND the general election accounts.

Yes -- this means that most candidates will be well under the expectations set for them by the media (us included).

Sen. Hillary Clinton will raise between $23M and $28M.

Sen. John McCain will raise between $18M and $22M.

Sen. Barack Obama will raise between $18M and $24M.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will raise between $19M and $21M. ** Romney is not raising general election money yet.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards will raise between $13M and $17M.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will raise between $12M and $15M.

These figures do not include transfers from other accounts or from the final quarter of '06.

Yes, we're saying that Sen. Obama could outraise HRC.

Burn rates are more difficult to forecast. If Sen. Hillary Clinton winds up with about $16M in the bank, that would track our expectations. Sen. Obama would impress us if he kept about $10-12M. Sen. McCain would need to keep around $15M. Gov. Mitt Romney should have more than $10M in the bank. Edwards and Giuliani will have less.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2007, 04:34:37 pm »
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im predicting chris dodd raised $100 or so.
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Deano963
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« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2007, 05:22:17 pm »
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These figures do not include transfers from other accounts or from the final quarter of '06.


Wow. So Hillary Clinton's projected fundraising of $23 - $28 million dosen't even include the $11 million she transferred from her Senate account? Damn - that means she will have raised between $34 and $39 million.

im predicting chris dodd raised $100 or so.

Yeh....as Chairman of the uber-powerful Banking Committee, absolutley no one wants to give him any money Roll Eyes. He'll probably raise $8-$9 million.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2007, 10:36:52 pm »
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im predicting chris dodd raised $100 or so.

Did you donate $100?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2007, 07:16:27 am »
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im predicting chris dodd raised $100 or so.

Did you donate $100?

hah!  no.

in that case my prediction may be a bit high.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2007, 04:54:54 pm »
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Word is that Edwards has over $14M. $1M of that is for the general election.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2007, 06:15:45 pm »
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Word is that Edwards has over $14M. $1M of that is for the general election.

Meh.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2007, 06:25:20 pm »
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This sounds like bull to me but I'm hearing rumors that Obama raised like $35 million. I'm thinking about $23 million sounds about right.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2007, 06:54:36 pm »
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This sounds like bull to me but I'm hearing rumors that Obama raised like $35 million. I'm thinking about $23 million sounds about right.

according to the reports in the Atlas News Aggregator Obama has raised somewhere around $22 million.  Clinton raised about $26 million plus another $10 million left over from her Senate campaign.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2007, 07:37:42 am »
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"In the Republican presidential primary, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee told CNN he expected to raise $500,000 in the first quarter and show $300,000 in the bank."

WOW, THATS A LOT OF MONEY ! Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2007, 08:29:56 am »
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"In the Republican presidential primary, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee told CNN he expected to raise $500,000 in the first quarter and show $300,000 in the bank."

That's pretty bad....though not as bad as Gilmore:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0307/3335.html

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Gilmore did not hold his first fundraiser until Monday, a week before the end of the first quarter. His campaign consultant, Christian Josi, said Gilmore raised $200,000 and will pick up the fundraising pace in the second quarter.

OK, so it looks like Gilmore and Huckabee are likely out of the running for 4th place in the GOP $ race this quarter.  I wonder who's going to come in 4th.  I guess it would either be Brownback, Hunter, or T. Thompson.
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« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2007, 08:48:31 am »
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"In the Republican presidential primary, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee told CNN he expected to raise $500,000 in the first quarter and show $300,000 in the bank."

That's pretty bad....though not as bad as Gilmore:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0307/3335.html

Quote
Gilmore did not hold his first fundraiser until Monday, a week before the end of the first quarter. His campaign consultant, Christian Josi, said Gilmore raised $200,000 and will pick up the fundraising pace in the second quarter.

OK, so it looks like Gilmore and Huckabee are likely out of the running for 4th place in the GOP $ race this quarter.  I wonder who's going to come in 4th.  I guess it would either be Brownback, Hunter, or T. Thompson.

I think Mike Huckabees first campaign goal is to mail every registered voter in the US a ball-pen case with "Mike Huckabee 2008" written across (estimated cost: 200.000 US-$ and gamble and eat away the rest ... Wink

Remember: Bill Cliton didnt have much money either when he started ...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2007, 08:55:19 am »
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Remember: Bill Cliton didnt have much money either when he started ...

But neither did anyone else.  No one was raising $6 million a month back then.
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« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2007, 10:31:04 am »
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The Hotline is now saying that Romney has raised $23 million for the first quarter, which should put him in the lead on the GOP side.  And Giuliani has raised "more than $15 million" for the quarter (though that probably includes some general election $, unlike Romney).  They also say "Our educated estimate is that, of the top tier Republicans, McCain will raise the third most amount of money and have the third most on hand."

Ouch.  Not good for McCain if that really is the case.  Most people were expecting that he'd at least finish ahead of Giuliani.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2007, 10:34:37 am »
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Update: Now the Hotline is saying this:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/04/the_order.html

Quote
So far as we can tell...

1. Romney
2. Clinton or Obama
3. Obama or Clinton.
+++++++++++++++
GAP
++++++++++++++++
4,5,6: Giuliani, McCain and Edwards
++++++++++++++++
GAP
++++++++++++++++
Richardson
++++++++++++++++
GAP
++++++++++++++++
Dodd, Biden

Yes, they put Romney ahead of even Clinton.  Presumably because more than $3 million of Clinton's $26 million for the quarter is general election $, whereas all of Romney's $23 million is for the primary.
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« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2007, 01:33:27 pm »
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Another update: The Hotline now says McCain raised just $12.5 million for the first quarter--a bit less than Giuliani and only about half as much as Romney raised:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/04/mccains_stateme.html
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2007, 02:04:41 pm »
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Another update: The Hotline now says McCain raised just $12.5 million for the first quarter--a bit less than Giuliani and only about half as much as Romney raised:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/04/mccains_stateme.html

Hey, he had more donors than Hillary.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2007, 02:17:55 pm »
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i tried to tell you all romney is a serious candidate.

but no you all wouldnt take my word for it.

OMFG HE FLIP FLOPPED ON ABORTION!!111

who cares?
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2007, 02:44:43 pm »
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That's an amazing number for Romney.

McCain's total isn't very impressive, but the number of donors is.
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On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
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« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2007, 05:22:34 pm »
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i tried to tell you all romney is a serious candidate.


You honestly believe that the ability to raise a lot of money by maxing out a lot of big-dollar donors in one quarter makes one a serious candidate?

Wow.

Maybe after I hear Romney actually take a position an ANYTHING WHATSOEVER, and then maybe 6 months later if he has managed to not completely flip-flop his position on said issue, I will regard him as a serious candidate.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

WalterMitty
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« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2007, 05:28:42 pm »
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romney absolutely is a serious candidate.  ive always predicted him to be the nominee and i stand by that prediction.  ( i do not support romney, in fact, im not a big romney fan at all)

this isnt a good day for the dodd campaign.  so much for that 7-9 million estimate.
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Deano963
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« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2007, 05:51:51 pm »
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romney absolutely is a serious candidate.  ive always predicted him to be the nominee and i stand by that prediction.  ( i do not support romney, in fact, im not a big romney fan at all)

Well, you also predicted that Kerry Healey would beat Deval Patrick, and she ended up getting her ass handed to her. So don't take it personally when I say I don't put too much stock in your predictions.


this isnt a good day for the dodd campaign.  so much for that 7-9 million estimate.

Well, he raised $4 million and transferred $5 million from his Senate account for a total of $9 million, so he did raise $9 million if you count the transfer. Either way, it's sure a heck of a lot more than the $100 you predicted he would raise.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

skybridge
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« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2007, 06:00:25 pm »
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Romney certainly is a serious candidate. Nobody raised his kind of money, won as many endorsements or built a comparatively strong organization the way he did. Romney ran a more sophisticated campaign in a month than people like McCain did in four years! I don't think he'd make a strong general election candidate at all, but there's hardly any stopping him from winning the GOP nomination.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2007, 06:07:34 pm »
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this isnt a good day for the dodd campaign.  so much for that 7-9 million estimate.

Well, he raised $4 million and transferred $5 million from his Senate account for a total of $9 million, so he did raise $9 million if you count the transfer. Either way, it's sure a heck of a lot more than the $100 you predicted he would raise.

facetious: 
1.   not meant to be taken seriously or literally:
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jfern
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« Reply #24 on: April 02, 2007, 07:05:52 pm »
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The Obama campaign is being coy. Has everyone else's numbers been released?
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