final 1st quarter fundraising predictions from The Hotline

[Mr. Morden]

link:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/03/the_1st_quarter_1.html

As The Hotline notes, five of the "big six" candidates are already raising $ for the general election as well, but of course that general election $ can't be used for the primary, so it's irrelevant from the perspective of the primary.  So the "real numbers" will be the $ raised for the primary, whereas the following predictions include both primary and general:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

"In the Republican presidential primary, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee told CNN he expected to raise $500,000 in the first quarter and show $300,000 in the bank."

That's pretty bad....though not as bad as Gilmore:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0307/3335.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

OK, so it looks like Gilmore and Huckabee are likely out of the running for 4th place in the GOP $ race this quarter.  I wonder who's going to come in 4th.  I guess it would either be Brownback, Hunter, or T. Thompson.

[Mr. Morden]

Remember: Bill Cliton didn´t have much money either when he started ...

But neither did anyone else.  No one was raising $6 million a month back then.

[Mr. Morden]

The Hotline is now saying that Romney has raised $23 million for the first quarter, which should put him in the lead on the GOP side.  And Giuliani has raised "more than $15 million" for the quarter (though that probably includes some general election $, unlike Romney).  They also say "Our educated estimate is that, of the top tier Republicans, McCain will raise the third most amount of money and have the third most on hand."

Ouch.  Not good for McCain if that really is the case.  Most people were expecting that he'd at least finish ahead of Giuliani.

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Now the Hotline is saying this:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/04/the_order.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, they put Romney ahead of even Clinton.  Presumably because more than $3 million of Clinton's $26 million for the quarter is general election $, whereas all of Romney's $23 million is for the primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Another update: The Hotline now says McCain raised just $12.5 million for the first quarter--a bit less than Giuliani and only about half as much as Romney raised:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/04/mccains_stateme.html

[Mr. Morden]

The Obama campaign is being coy. Has everyone else's numbers been released?

On the Democratic side, I think everyone's numbers have been released except Obama, Kucinich, and Gravel.  On the GOP side, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney have all released their numbers, but most of the second tier candidates (like Brownback, Hunter, Gov. Thompson, etc.) have not.

[Mr. Morden]

More numbers:

http://www2.ljworld.com/blogs/brownback_report/2007/apr/03/brownback_report/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Still no word on the fundraising numbers from Duncan Hunter or Tommy Thompson, so we don't know who came in 4th in GOP fundraising....either Brownback, Hunter, or Thompson.

[Mr. Morden]

Some new numbers from the second tier candidates on the GOP side are coming in:

link

It now looks like:

Romney $23 million
Giuliani $15 million
McCain $12.5 million
Brownback $2 million
Huckabee $500,000
Hunter $500,000
T. Thompson $400,000
Gilmore $200,000

So Brownback ends up coming in fourth.

(And again, an unspecified portion of the Giuliani and McCain totals is general election money, which can't be used in the primary.  I don't think any of the other Republicans are already raising general election $.)