ARG: Sununu one of the most vul senators down 10 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the 2008 election for US Senate were being held today between Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, and John Sununu, the Republican, for whom would you vote - Shaheen or Sununu? (names rotated)

2008 US Senate  Shaheen  Sununu  Undecided 
 
All voters  44%  34%  22% 
 
Republicans  17% 67% 16%
Democrats  92% 1% 7%
Undeclared  32% 32% 36%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/

[TheresNoMoney]

Those are horrible numbers for Sununu. 32% for an incumbent?

I don't think Shaheen will run, but I think there are at least a few other Democrats than can beat Sununu.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Steve Marchard should give Sununu a run for the money, I don't know yet about Katrina Swelt.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Good news.  I think Sununu is now the most vulnerable Republican Senator.

[Tender Branson]

Seems the time´s up for the jammed phony ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think you can equivilate Sununu to Mike DeWine.

[GOP = Terrorists]

I don't know yet about Katrina Swelt.

Swett is the worst option.  She can't win in the general but luckily she won't win the primary unless shes the only candidate left running. =)

[Gabu]

Wow, even against an opponent who probably won't run, an incumbent at 34% is never a good thing.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You mean that a phone jamming, pro Iraq war, anti stem cell research, anti-minimum wage, Bush supporting Republican is out of touch with New Hampshire values? Who would have thought?

[Tender Branson]

Bushs 17% approval rating is just LOL, even for NH !

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even a second tier candidate can beat Sununu at this point.

[Verily]

I suspected Sununu was in worse trouble than many predicted, but not this bad. That's worse trouble than Allard would be in if he were running for reelection. At this point, the election will be decided by the Democratic primary unless something radical happens.

That breakdown makes it look like the moderate-to-liberal branch of the New Hampshire Republicans that kept the party in power for so long is getting ready to finally defect en masse to the Democrats. A combination of Lynch and Bush, I'm sure.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Even a second tier candidate can beat Sununu at this point.

As I said before, he'll be Santorumized.

[TheresNoMoney]

The percentage of Republicans in NH have decreased greatly, Democrats have increased slightly, and independents have gone way up.

The reason the Democrats are doing so well in NH now is that moderates vote overwhelmingly for them. Republicans have completely lost the center.

Shaheen almost definitely won't run. The challenge for the eventual Democratic nominee will be increasing his name recogntion.

[Deano963]

Now if only Shaheen would just agree to actually RUN ALREADY, this poll would mean something.

We have to find a top-tier challenger soon - Sununu is going to rasie a ton of money for this race, mostly from the CFG and their scumbag friends.

Bushs 17% approval rating is just LOL, even for NH !

Yeh, that struck me as well. 17%!? I thought it was a typo at first. That's insanely low, especially for a state like New Hampshire! I know Rhode Island was once polled at approving of Bush by only 20%, but New Hamspire?

[TheresNoMoney]

We have to find a top-tier challenger soon - Sununu is going to rasie a ton of money for this race, mostly from the CFG and their scumbag friends.

In New Hampshire, there is no real bench for either party.  We don't have elected offices like AG or Lt Governor, and we just elected Democrats to Congress this past election (neither of whom will run). Marchand could end up being the candidate against Sununu.

Whoever runs against Sununu will have money. The DSCC will pump a lot of money into this race and the Democrat will receive lots of national money from this being a top pickup opportunity.

And you also need to remember that this is a small state and you don't need $15 million to win a Senate race......$5-8 million will work just fine.

[Rococo4]

Bushs 17% approval rating is just LOL, even for NH !

I doubt it is that low for Bush there....makes me thing this poll might be a tad skewed.  I dont doubt Sununu is vulnerable, but I'm not quite sure I buy this.

[Tender Branson]

Bushs 17% approval rating is just LOL, even for NH !

I doubt it is that low for Bush there....makes me thing this poll might be a tad skewed.  I dont doubt Sununu is vulnerable, but I'm not quite sure I buy this.

That´s actually what I meant. I don´t think the 17% are true. It must be some kind of outlier. Look at the recent NH Bush Job Approval numbers by ARG:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp04.html

He never went below 30% - and now 17%, that´s hard to believe. Rhode Island, yes, but NH no.

[12th Doctor]

Well kids, we just lost another perfectly good Senator... have fun... I guess BRTD/jeferns wish has come true, Sununu is the next Santorum.

[Verily]

Bushs 17% approval rating is just LOL, even for NH !

I doubt it is that low for Bush there....makes me thing this poll might be a tad skewed.  I dont doubt Sununu is vulnerable, but I'm not quite sure I buy this.

That´s actually what I meant. I don´t think the 17% are true. It must be some kind of outlier. Look at the recent NH Bush Job Approval numbers by ARG:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp04.html

He never went below 30% - and now 17%, that´s hard to believe. Rhode Island, yes, but NH no.

All that changed were Undecideds; maybe ARG stopped pressing respondents as hard.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting.

Obviously an incumbent at 32% is no good for the incumbent, even against a known challenger.  As this is an ARG poll in NH, the only state where ARG can really be trusted, if any, the poll does have credibility.

However, since it looks to me like the Sununu poll is the same poll as the Bush JA one, the 17% mark lends a good bit of credence that this could be the classic 1 in 20.

Both ARG and SUSA in their NH polling have consistently shown that Bush JA in NH mirrors national Bush JA closely (+ or - a few points here or there, especially in 2006).  I suspect Bush JA at present is somewhere between 33% and 35%.

So, 17% would be clearly way off-kilter with the historical numbers.  It is true that a inaccurate number in Bush JA would not necessarily lead to a inaccurate number in the Sununu poll, but most likely the two would be related somehow.

Also, I sincerely doubt that ARG has changed its methods in polling in order to not push undecideds as much.  Polling is not even the main thing the company who runs ARG does and I still see their classic adherence to state registration numbers.  Chances are that this is another good reason to believe the poll might be the 1 in 20.

Anyway, I would advise waiting before making any conclusions until another couple of polls comes out.  That should help clear up the above questions about the poll.

[Smash255]

Interesting.

Obviously an incumbent at 32% is no good for the incumbent, even against a known challenger.  As this is an ARG poll in NH, the only state where ARG can really be trusted, if any, the poll does have credibility.

However, since it looks to me like the Sununu poll is the same poll as the Bush JA one, the 17% mark lends a good bit of credence that this could be the classic 1 in 20.

Both ARG and SUSA in their NH polling have consistently shown that Bush JA in NH mirrors national Bush JA closely (+ or - a few points here or there, especially in 2006).  I suspect Bush JA at present is somewhere between 33% and 35%.

So, 17% would be clearly way off-kilter with the historical numbers.  It is true that a inaccurate number in Bush JA would not necessarily lead to a inaccurate number in the Sununu poll, but most likely the two would be related somehow.

Also, I sincerely doubt that ARG has changed its methods in polling in order to not push undecideds as much.  Polling is not even the main thing the company who runs ARG does and I still see their classic adherence to state registration numbers.  Chances are that this is another good reason to believe the poll might be the 1 in 20.

Anyway, I would advise waiting before making any conclusions until another couple of polls comes out.  That should help clear up the above questions about the poll.

national polls right now have Bush in the 32-33% reange, some a little lower.  The last SUSA poll had Bush 6% lower in NH than nationally (November) and with the exception of October, the gap between Bush's ratings in the country and in N.H tended to widen throughout the year.  So while the 17% JA might be a tad low, low 20's isn't that far out of the question, with Bush's overall numbers in the low 30's and a continuation of a  widening gap between his overall numbers and N.H numbers.

[Galactic Overlord]

Bushs 17% approval rating is just LOL, even for NH !

I doubt it is that low for Bush there....makes me thing this poll might be a tad skewed.  I dont doubt Sununu is vulnerable, but I'm not quite sure I buy this.

True. I mean, the Sununu name ought to be...well I doubt it's like the Casey name in PA, but it's not like people don't know Sununu from a hole in the ground.

It's also interesting that Sununu is being beaten by Sheehan, considering that Senatorial rematches almost never work.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Bushs 17% approval rating is just LOL, even for NH !

I doubt it is that low for Bush there....makes me thing this poll might be a tad skewed.  I dont doubt Sununu is vulnerable, but I'm not quite sure I buy this.

That´s actually what I meant. I don´t think the 17% are true. It must be some kind of outlier. Look at the recent NH Bush Job Approval numbers by ARG:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp04.html

He never went below 30% - and now 17%, that´s hard to believe. Rhode Island, yes, but NH no.

I'm not so sure: I go to Caroll County, NH a lot as I have family there. I was there in the fall, and not one person had a single good thing to say about Bush. EVERYONE I met cursed Bush, the war, and the state of the economy. His approval rating may not be 17%, but 20-23% is plausible. If things keep going the way they've been (and I pray that they don't) Bush could end his term with approval ratings in the 20s.

[TheresNoMoney]

I definitely think low 20's is realistic for Bush's approval here in NH.