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Author Topic: Largest city to vote for Bush?  (Read 24644 times)
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BRTD
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« on: April 02, 2007, 02:12:32 pm »
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I'd bet it's Jacksonville. Anyone think it's anything else?

I'm sure Kerry won Houston and Dallas proper, even if fairly narrowly.
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2007, 02:20:17 pm »
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We've had this topic before...

1. New York City - confirmed Kerry
2. Los Angeles - confirmed Kerry
3. Chicago - confirmed Kerry
4. Houston - likely Kerry
5. Philadelphia - confirmed Kerry
6. Phoenix - likely Kerry
7. San Diego - confirmed Kerry
8. San Antonio - likely Kerry
9. Dallas - very likely Kerry
10. San Jose - confirmed Kerry
11. Detroit - confirmed Kerry
12. Indianapolis - obviously Kerry
13. Jacksonville - obviously Bush

I'd say Jacksonville, although I can't confirm Houston, Phoenix, San Antonio or Dallas.
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2007, 06:05:34 pm »
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We've had this topic before...

1. New York City - confirmed Kerry
2. Los Angeles - confirmed Kerry
3. Chicago - confirmed Kerry
4. Houston - likely Kerry
5. Philadelphia - confirmed Kerry
6. Phoenix - likely Kerry
7. San Diego - confirmed Kerry
8. San Antonio - likely Kerry
9. Dallas - very likely Kerry
10. San Jose - confirmed Kerry
11. Detroit - confirmed Kerry
12. Indianapolis - obviously Kerry
13. Jacksonville - obviously Bush

As for the rest of the top 50, these ones either or obvious or are confirmed. Can anyone else confirm the ones I considered 'lean' or 'likely'?

San Francisco, CA - obviously Kerry
Columbus, OH - lean Kerry
Austin, TX - lean Kerry
Memphis, TN - lean Kerry
Baltimore, MD - obviously Kerry
Fort Worth, TX - lean Bush
Charlotte, NC - not sure
El Paso, TX - lean Kerry
Milwaukee, WI - likely Kerry
Seattle, WA - confirmed Kerry
Boston, MA - confirmed Kerry
Denver, CO - obviously Kerry
Louisville/Jefferson County (balance), KY - obviously Kerry
Washington, DC - obviously Kerry
Nashville-Davidson (balance),TN - obviously Kerry
Las Vegas, NV - lean Kerry
Portland, OR - likely Kerry
Oklahoma City, OK - lean Bush
Tucson, AZ - not sure
Albuquerque, NM - lean Kerry
Long Beach, CA - likely Kerry
Atlanta, GA - likely Kerry
New Orleans, LA - likely Kerry
Cleveland, OH - confirmed Kerry
Fresno, CA - not sure
Sacramento, CA - lean Kerry
Kansas City, MO - lean Kerry
Virginia Beach, VA - obviously Bush
Mesa, AZ - not sure
Omaha, NE - not sure
Oakland, CA - confirmed Kerry
Tulsa, OK - lean Bush
Miami, FL - not sure
Honolulu CDP, HI - likely Kerry
Minneapolis, MN - likely Kerry
Colorado Springs, CO - lean Bush
Arlington, TX - not sure
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2007, 06:52:12 pm »
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Jacksonville has some definitely non urban areas in the city limits.
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2007, 08:30:19 pm »
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All I can confirm Kerry, nclib, except:

Fort Worth, TX - Bush, I imagine
Louisville/Jefferson County (balance), KY - obviously Kerry
Oklahoma City, OK - obviously Bush
Fresno, CA - confirmed Bush
Virginia Beah, VA - confirmed Bush
Mesa, AZ - confirmed Bush (and rather strongly so)
Omaha, NE - not sure...I think it was Bush
Tulsa, OK - reasonably sure it's Bush
Colorado Springs, CO - confirmed Bush
Arlington, TX - nearly certain Bush
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« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2007, 09:13:38 pm »
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San Antonio did vote for Bush, I can gaurentee you that!

You are correct on every estimate there. I know Mesa Arizona voted for Bush!! But Phoenix did vote for Kerry. Maricopa County is one interesting county.... it is Republican but a lot of them feel like moderate republicans in a sense..

That was not inluding the top 13, btw.  I think San Antonio probably voted Bush too.

Phoenix's precinct results are really, really hard to unravel, but I think Phoenix proper probably voted Kerry.
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2007, 09:06:11 am »
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I'd bet it's Jacksonville.
Most of Jacksonville is suburbs, not city. Wink
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2007, 01:03:51 pm »
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We've had this topic before...

1. New York City - confirmed Kerry
2. Los Angeles - confirmed Kerry
3. Chicago - confirmed Kerry
4. Houston - likely Kerry
5. Philadelphia - confirmed Kerry
6. Phoenix - likely Kerry
7. San Diego - confirmed Kerry
8. San Antonio - likely Kerry
9. Dallas - very likely Kerry
10. San Jose - confirmed Kerry
11. Detroit - confirmed Kerry
12. Indianapolis - obviously Kerry
13. Jacksonville - obviously Bush

As for the rest of the top 50, these ones either or obvious or are confirmed. Can anyone else confirm the ones I considered 'lean' or 'likely'?

Austin, TX - lean Kerry

I can assure you that Kerry won Austin. Quite solidly.
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2007, 03:22:45 pm »
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« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2007, 01:02:51 pm »
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What about Tampa?
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« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2007, 01:35:05 pm »
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There is no way Tampa proper voted for Bush. The 11th district (Jim Davis' old seat) is mostly based around the city and voted 58% for Kerry.
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« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2007, 02:26:28 pm »
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What about Tampa?

Solidly Kerry.

My records indicate 57%-43%.
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« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2007, 03:03:20 pm »
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Alcon, how solidly was Miami for Kerry? Was it less Democratic than the county? I wasn't sure of the results due to the high Cuban population.
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2007, 03:29:45 pm »
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Alcon, how solidly was Miami for Kerry? Was it less Democratic than the county? I wasn't sure of the results due to the high Cuban population.

Miami-Dade doesn't have precinct-to-municipality information in any form I can find, but I emailed them.  I'll tell you when I get a response.  Smiley
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2007, 03:55:29 pm »
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San Antonio is very close.  I would have to do precinct-by precinct analysis of the unincorporated rural-exurban parts of Bexar County to hazard a guess.

Houston went Kerry by about 60-40.  Dallas went by about as much.

Fort Worth went for Bush.

Austin clearly went for Kerry and so did El Paso.

Of course, the suburbs are the problem.  Tongue
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2007, 04:58:24 pm »
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Alcon, how solidly was Miami for Kerry? Was it less Democratic than the county? I wasn't sure of the results due to the high Cuban population.

Miami-Dade doesn't have precinct-to-municipality information in any form I can find, but I emailed them.  I'll tell you when I get a response.  Smiley

I'm not sure but from what I know Miami-Dade went for Kerry by a much less higher margin then it went for Gore back in 2000.
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« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2007, 05:01:02 pm »
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I'm not sure but from what I know Miami-Dade went for Kerry by a much less higher margin then it went for Gore back in 2000.

Not really.  It was actually a nearly identical margin each time, with Bush only slightly gaining - well below national average.
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« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2007, 05:10:21 pm »
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I'm not sure but from what I know Miami-Dade went for Kerry by a much less higher margin then it went for Gore back in 2000.

Not really.  It was actually a nearly identical margin each time, with Bush only slightly gaining - well below national average.

Miami-Dade County in 2000 was 52.57-46.29 Gore; in 2004, it was 52.89-46.61 Kerry.  That's actually a net gain of exactly zero towards anyone (!).
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« Reply #18 on: April 09, 2007, 05:12:22 pm »
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I'm not sure but from what I know Miami-Dade went for Kerry by a much less higher margin then it went for Gore back in 2000.

Not really.  It was actually a nearly identical margin each time, with Bush only slightly gaining - well below national average.

Maybe it was Miami/Broward..can't remember...I just remember hearing about it election night...so long ago. Tongue
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« Reply #19 on: April 09, 2007, 05:13:53 pm »
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Bush did make pretty significant gains in Broward (which is just Broward, not Miami-Broward)...not huge, but above national average.  Smiley
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« Reply #20 on: April 09, 2007, 05:48:17 pm »
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Bush did make pretty significant gains in Broward (which is just Broward, not Miami-Broward)...not huge, but above national average.  Smiley

I thought Broward and Dade combined? I remember their being an amendment that passed (i voted against) where two counties merged.
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« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2007, 05:53:19 pm »
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Bush did make pretty significant gains in Broward (which is just Broward, not Miami-Broward)...not huge, but above national average.  Smiley

I thought Broward and Dade combined? I remember their being an amendment that passed (i voted against) where two counties merged.

Um...the only thing that come to mind are the 1997 name change from Dade County to Miami-Dade County, or the consolidated city-county of Jacksonville (with exceptions of other already-incorporated areas)...but, no, no Florida counties have changed in ages.
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« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2007, 06:24:55 pm »
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Uh wait, Fresno/County is a Republican stronghold. San Bernandino and Riverside are also very Republican.
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« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2007, 06:34:49 pm »
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Uh wait, Fresno/County is a Republican stronghold. San Bernandino and Riverside are also very Republican.

Welcome to the forums.  Smiley

Fresno itself is not what I'd call a "stronghold," although it does certainly have a GOP lean.  Bush won it 51.8%-47.3%, which means it could theoretically flip with a Democratic win.

San Bernardino County may be a Republican stronghold, but the city itself is Democratic-leaning.  Then again, its turnout is also horrible - the city of San Bernardino has a voting population about 1.5 times as large as Rancho Cucamonga's, but regularly casts only about three-quarters as many votes.

Riverside, too, is more moderate than its county - 52.0%-46.7%.  Not a stronghold, but indeed Republian.

Bakersfield, on the other hand, is hyper-Republian - Kerry barely got one-third of the vote.  Pretty damn impressive for a city of nearly 300,000.

But they are all smaller, so the answer to this still almost certainly remains Jacksonville.
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« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2007, 07:34:20 pm »
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I am convinced San Antonio is the largest city to vote for Bush.

Oops, I forgot about that.  I'll call them tomorrow to see if I can get a precinct list for 2004.
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