Ms. Cleo (aka Zogby Internet) has new polls!
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  Ms. Cleo (aka Zogby Internet) has new polls!
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Author Topic: Ms. Cleo (aka Zogby Internet) has new polls!  (Read 1813 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: July 12, 2004, 05:29:47 PM »
« edited: July 12, 2004, 05:41:03 PM by The Vorlon »

Ms. Cleo standing by! - Pyschic Hotline[/color]
Have your credit card ready - 1-800-ZogbyMadness - channel the dead - talk to your long departed Uncle Zeke from WWI, see actual aliens! - Talk to Bill Clintons Alien Love child from the Galexy Andromeda ! - Buy Now[/color]
Must be 18 years or older to call[/color]


These are Zogby's INTERNET polls..

Kerry takes big leads in Washington, Oregon and Pennsylvania, and a small one in Ohio.

Bush has a big lead in West Virginia, Tennesse has shifted 18% in one month and is now tied, Kerry by 7% in Florida.. etc...

Somehow, I just can't seem to take these things seriously... Maybe it's just me.. ??

The fact that I personally voted in 6 different states while living in Canada seems to suggest there may be "some" validation problems Smiley

Read at your own risk Smiley

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Amusement only - no warranty expressed or implied - caveat emptor - use at your own risk[/color]
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2004, 05:35:14 PM »

Evem Ms. Cleo wouldn't make such absurd claims.
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millwx
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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2004, 05:40:36 PM »

Somehow, I just can't seem to take these thing seriously.
And you shouldn't.

Frankly, I'm surprised that he's even as close as he is.  If you take poll averages and add 3% to Kerry (since that what most national polls "imply" post-Edwards), some of the states are actually in the ballpark.  I guess a stopped clock is right twice a day.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2004, 05:59:31 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2004, 06:03:36 PM by The Vorlon »

Somehow, I just can't seem to take these thing seriously.
And you shouldn't.

Frankly, I'm surprised that he's even as close as he is.  If you take poll averages and add 3% to Kerry (since that what most national polls "imply" post-Edwards), some of the states are actually in the ballpark.  I guess a stopped clock is right twice a day.

If you ignore the 6 or 7 that are just crazy, and add or subtract 3-5 % where required, and then ignore the remaining 3 or 4 freak results, these are actually pretty close.

I'd love Zogby to internet poll say DC or Utah... just for Laughs Smiley
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agcatter
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« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2004, 06:03:54 PM »

wow.  an 18 pt Kerry bump in Tennessee.  

Bhahahahahahah
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2004, 06:04:53 PM »

wow.  an 18 pt Kerry bump in Tennessee.  

Must have been the Edwards factor.  Cheesy
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agcatter
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« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2004, 06:08:29 PM »

that's some VP choice!
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Shira
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« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2004, 06:15:18 PM »

Somehow, I just can't seem to take these things seriously... Maybe it's just me.. ??

Are you trying to downplay information you don't like?
Do you seriously believe that Bush TODAY leads in FL?

BTW: your map is a pretty good one. Only move FL to Kerry and WV to Bush.

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2004, 06:21:39 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2004, 06:25:10 PM by The Vorlon »

Somehow, I just can't seem to take these things seriously... Maybe it's just me.. ??

Are you trying to downplay information you don't like?
Do you seriously believe that Bush TODAY leads in FL?

BTW: your map is a pretty good one. Only move FL to Kerry and WV to Bush.


TODAY... hmmm....

3% Edwards Bump... Knocks Florida to a very mild shade of Red..

I would not argue with that actually... Smiley

(I guess Zogby having Bush up in Michigan wasn't real then?)

We are into the convention season, so all polls are useless...

But sure, If you wanted to shift the entire map 1.5 "shades" towards Kerry, that would not be crazy, just get ready to shift it back when Bush get's his convention mini-bump.

From now till Mid-September the polls are all useless... Smiley



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ian
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2004, 07:48:25 PM »

I find Zogby to be quite a reliable source for polling.  Almost all FL polls have Kerry winning by a little, and this poll is by a lot, probably b/c of the bounce in all states regarding Edwards.  Kerry's favorable ratings are getting higher and higher, and this is just what the states think as of now.  So, in the end, do I believe Zogby?  Absolutely.

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MODU
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« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2004, 08:12:28 PM »


Zogby has a few perks, but his online polling is a joke.  It is almost as reliable as our own mock election.
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millwx
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« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2004, 08:29:43 PM »

If you ignore the 6 or 7 that are just crazy, and add or subtract 3-5 % where required, and then ignore the remaining 3 or 4 freak results, these are actually pretty close.
Now, now, let's be fair... they're not all that bad...

Arkansas = 4% shift to Kerry compared to last "reliable" poll (POS).
Florida = Massively pro-Kerry compared to last POS, but in decent agreement with Rasmussen - for what that's worth.
Iowa = Reasonably close to other polls; maybe a shade too pro-Bush
Michigan = Good agreement with most recent polls (EPIC/MRA and ARG)
Minnesota = Almost dead on with the month-long poll average and very similar to POS.
Missouri = Too pro-Kerry, but not wildy f$#*ed up... SUSA showed Bush +2% and almost all polls have Bush up, so Kerry +3% is almost certainly wrong, but not by some huge margin.
Nevada = Bush +2%?  POS had Bush +1%.  Looks right.
New Hampshire = Kerry +9% is probably wrong as ARG and POS show a tie, but they're a little old, so this being Kerry's backyard plus a small Edwards-bounce, this is probably only marginally too high (i.e., outside of the MOE).
New Mexico = Agrees perfectly with recent ARG poll.
Ohio = Polls have been all over the place, Kerry +1% is certainly in the ballpark.
Oregon = Kerry +10% may seem large, but even the reliable polls a month ago (during the Reaganathon) had Kerry +5%, roughly... so Kerry +10% now is, frankly, very reasonable.
Pennsylvania = Kerry +7% is probably too large, but may well be within the MOE; the poll average has Kerry +3% and all but this poll are pre-Edwards; so 7% is probably high, but not wildly obscene.
Tennessee = Tied?!?!?  O.k., you picked on this one in particular.  Fine; with this many polls one should be "bad"; this one is... no question... this result is asinine.
Washington = Kerry +9% may sound large, but last Mason-Dixon showed Kerry +4% during Reaganmania... Kerry +9% now is absolutely plausible.
West Virginia = Bush +8% looks too pro-Bush, but, again, not wildly off... POS had Bush +3%; Kerry should see an Edwards-boost in WV, so this one looks bad, but Bush up is reasonable.
Wisconsin = Kerry +9% sounds like too much again, however, remember how popular Edwards was in the primary there... The last reliable poll (POS) had Bush at almost the same percentage... so Kerry has only picked up undecideds... a very plausible result.

So, in all of this, only Tennessee is ridiculously out to lunch.  Let me be clear... I am NOT really trying to completely defend Zogby here.  His methodology is questionable, and several of the polls, though technically reasonable, are on the cusp of being "acceptable" within the MOE.  So, I am not saying these are wonderful polls that should be trusted.  I'm merely saying that you're enjoying the Zogby-bashing too much Cheesy ...it isn't quite as bad as you make it out to be.
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tinman64
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« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2004, 08:43:48 PM »

As much as I like his website, Zogby has been wrong in the past.

As I recall, a week or so before the 2000 election, he had Gore +11 in FL.  We know how that turned out.

I'm waiting until mid-September before I put much reliance in any poll.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2004, 08:44:41 PM »


Zogby has a few perks, but his online polling is a joke.  It is almost as reliable as our own mock election.

Hey...Kerry is making a comback in the mock election too...he's cut Badnarik PV lead in half in the last three days! Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2004, 08:44:53 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2004, 08:41:44 AM by The Vorlon »

If you ignore the 6 or 7 that are just crazy, and add or subtract 3-5 % where required, and then ignore the remaining 3 or 4 freak results, these are actually pretty close.
Now, now, let's be fair... they're not all that bad...

Arkansas = 4% shift to Kerry compared to last "reliable" poll (POS).
Florida = Massively pro-Kerry compared to last POS, but in decent agreement with Rasmussen - for what that's worth.
Iowa = Reasonably close to other polls; maybe a shade too pro-Bush
Michigan = Good agreement with most recent polls (EPIC/MRA and ARG)
Minnesota = Almost dead on with the month-long poll average and very similar to POS.
Missouri = Too pro-Kerry, but not wildy f$#*ed up... SUSA showed Bush +2% and almost all polls have Bush up, so Kerry +3% is almost certainly wrong, but not by some huge margin.
Nevada = Bush +2%?  POS had Bush +1%.  Looks right.
New Hampshire = Kerry +9% is probably wrong as ARG and POS show a tie, but they're a little old, so this being Kerry's backyard plus a small Edwards-bounce, this is probably only marginally too high (i.e., outside of the MOE).
New Mexico = Agrees perfectly with recent ARG poll.
Ohio = Polls have been all over the place, Kerry +1% is certainly in the ballpark.
Oregon = Kerry +10% may seem large, but even the reliable polls a month ago (during the Reaganathon) had Kerry +5%, roughly... so Kerry +10% now is, frankly, very reasonable.
Pennsylvania = Kerry +7% is probably too large, but may well be within the MOE; the poll average has Kerry +3% and all but this poll are pre-Edwards; so 7% is probably high, but not wildly obscene.
Tennessee = Tied?!?!?  O.k., you picked on this one in particular.  Fine; with this many polls one should be "bad"; this one is... no question... this result is asinine.
Washington = Kerry +9% may sound large, but last Mason-Dixon showed Kerry +4% during Reaganmania... Kerry +9% now is absolutely plausible.
West Virginia = Bush +8% looks too pro-Bush, but, again, not wildly off... POS had Bush +3%; Kerry should see an Edwards-boost in WV, so this one looks bad, but Bush up is reasonable.
Wisconsin = Kerry +9% sounds like too much again, however, remember how popular Edwards was in the primary there... The last reliable poll (POS) had Bush at almost the same percentage... so Kerry has only picked up undecideds... a very plausible result.

So, in all of this, only Tennessee is ridiculously out to lunch.  Let me be clear... I am NOT really trying to completely defend Zogby here.  His methodology is questionable, and several of the polls, though technically reasonable, are on the cusp of being "acceptable" within the MOE.  So, I am not saying these are wonderful polls that should be trusted.  I'm merely saying that you're enjoying the Zogby-bashing too much Cheesy ...it isn't quite as bad as you make it out to be.

In all seriousness...

When these Internet Zogby things first came out I said that I do think something using the internet is the future of polling.

With telephone response rates dropping like a rock, cell phones become so very common, and people taking their phone # with them when they move, not to mention caller ID, call block, etc and who knows what ever other services are coming on line, traditional telephone polling is in BIG trouble.

Given the cost factor (very cheap) and the potential for huge samples, I hope Zogby, or somebody else sorts these things out so they work.

Point of information.

In 2000, Harris Interactive (the internet part of Harris polling did a final "internet" poll of the 2000 race based on 10,000 pre-selected respondants.  Harris did this thing "right" and not on the cheap so that over the weeks and months prior to the vote Harris phoned back, cross referenced and verified everybody in the survey.

Final Harris Interactive Prediction in 2000: Gore + 0.70 %

Actual: Gore + 0.51%

Error : 0.19%

Done RIGHT, these things have HUGE potential.  Like anything, to do it right takes money.

I don't think Zogby is spending the $$$ to do these things right IMHO, but the Internet IS the furure of polling IMHO.





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tinman64
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2004, 08:49:45 PM »

Sounds like if there is one internet poll to watch this year, it is Harris Interactive!   Thanks Vorlon!
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Andrew
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« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2004, 10:31:39 PM »

I'm reserving judgment on the Zogby internet polls until November 3.

Only then will we know for sure if they were any good.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2004, 08:38:54 AM »

Er... is their any point doing an internet poll of either WV or TN?
At least we now know how Metro Memphis and Metro Charleston will be voting.
Shame that they never decide elections...
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