SUSA KY Gov Primary: Democrats Tied, Fletcher with small Lead

[InsideTheBeltway]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4aaf314-6f94-448e-bb81-2323ba3f67c8

Democrats:

Steve Henry 20%
Bruce Lunsford 20%
Steve Beshear 15%
Jody Richards 12%
Jonathan Miller 8%
Gatewood Galbraith 8%
Otis Hensley, Jr. 1%
Other  6%
Undecided  9%

Republicans:

Ernie Fletcher 40%
Anne Northup 31%
Billy Harper 16%
Other 9%
Undecided 4%

This is an improvement compared to last month for Lunsford and Fletcher, and a dropoff for Henry and Northup.

The primary is May 22nd.

[Gabu]

Go Fletcher!

[Adlai Stevenson]

I fail to see why Jonathan Miller is not in the lead.

[Democratic Hawk]

Go Fletcher!

[TheresNoMoney]

Republicans can give us Kentucky and we'll give them Louisiana, even swap.

[RBH]

I think this poll is slightly ridiculous.

#1) they ask for "other" then they list all the candidates on the ballot

#2) The poll might slightly undersample Eastern KY (bad for Lunsford/Stumbo's numbers) and oversample North Central KY (good for Lunsford/Stumbo)

Ultimately, South Kentucky is where this election is won on the Republican side.

Northup will win Louisville (24% of the vote), Fletcher will win the Lexington area (16% of the vote). South KY (23% of the vote) is up in the air.

Here's a map



Louisville/Frankfort is in orange
Lexington is in green
South KY is in red

[HardRCafé]

I fail to see why Jonathan Miller is not in the lead.

Because they hate him?

[7,052,770]

Republicans can give us Kentucky and we'll give them Louisiana, even swap.

NO!  Don't give them ANYTHING!

It is very important that we hold Louisiana, and take Kentucky and Mississippi this fall.

[HardRCafé]

Hysterical much?

[Tender Branson]

Republicans can give us Kentucky and we'll give them Louisiana, even swap.

NO!  Don't give them ANYTHING!

It is very important that we hold Louisiana, and take Kentucky and Mississippi this fall.

The Kentucky race will be a close one I think, if Northup is the candidate. She may even win. The climate for the Dems in the state is not all too bad, considering that they got 48% of the Congressional vote last year, to the 49% for the Republicans. In 2004 it was 37-62% and in 2002 it was 32% to 63%. Fletcher won with 55-45 in 2003, which means that if he is the candidate again in 2007 and there´s some good Democratic challenger, I´d give the thumbs up for the Democrats and they may take the seat by between 50 and 53%. KY will almost certainly get closer on the Presidential level in 2008 either.

In Louisiana and Mississippi it´s the other way round. I predict a GOP win.