VA and NJ State Legaslative elections.

[Kevin]

What is going to happen with these two local elections in VA and NJ, Personally I think the Democrats are going to take the General Assembly here in Virginia,and New Jersey I just don't know.

[Verily]

A few of the naturally Democratic seats currently held by Republicans will probably switch to the Democrats in the New Jersey State Senate, but otherwise little will change. I predict the following:

Senate
Democratic: 25 (+3)
Republican: 15 (-3)

Assembly
Democratic: 50 (+1)
Republican: 30 (-1)

At the last Assembly elections in 2005, Democrats gained two seats. The Senate was last reelected in 2003.


Edit: What makes you think the Democrats will gain the 9 seats they need to flip the Virginia House of Delegates?

[Kevin]

A few of the naturally Democratic seats currently held by Republicans will probably switch to the Democrats in the New Jersey State Senate, but otherwise little will change. I predict the following:

Senate
Democratic: 25 (+3)
Republican: 15 (-3)

Assembly
Democratic: 50 (+1)
Republican: 30 (-1)

At the last Assembly elections in 2005, Democrats gained two seats. The Senate was last reelected in 2003.

I was kind of hoping maybe the Republicans could make some gains in New Jersey this year.

[Verily]

A few of the naturally Democratic seats currently held by Republicans will probably switch to the Democrats in the New Jersey State Senate, but otherwise little will change. I predict the following:

Senate
Democratic: 25 (+3)
Republican: 15 (-3)

Assembly
Democratic: 50 (+1)
Republican: 30 (-1)

At the last Assembly elections in 2005, Democrats gained two seats. The Senate was last reelected in 2003.

I was kind of hoping maybe the Republicans could make some gains in New Jersey this year.

Unlikely. The best the Republicans could hope for is maintaining the status quo. In 2003, the Republicans did well due to their national popularity, but they lost it all back in 2005 in the Assembly, and the same will probably happen in the Senate now.

[MAS117]

I expect Democrats to make gains in both VA and NJ.

[socaldem]

A few of the naturally Democratic seats currently held by Republicans will probably switch to the Democrats in the New Jersey State Senate, but otherwise little will change. I predict the following:

Senate
Democratic: 25 (+3)
Republican: 15 (-3)

Assembly
Democratic: 50 (+1)
Republican: 30 (-1)

At the last Assembly elections in 2005, Democrats gained two seats. The Senate was last reelected in 2003.


Edit: What makes you think the Democrats will gain the 9 seats they need to flip the Virginia House of Delegates?

Which seats in NJ, out of curiosity do you see flipping?


In South Jersey, I see Democrats definitely picking up the Atlantic City-based District 2 with Jim Whelan and possibly picking up the Cape May-based District 1 if popular Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew runs.

I think Dems will have a harder time in Central Jersey where they will be hard-pressed to win the 14th district, a likely face-off in an open seat between Reps. Linda Greenstein and Bill Baroni.  GOPer Baroni has tended to get higher vote totals than Greenstein in the assembly races.  Democrats, meanwhile, have to watch out for a challenge to Sen. Ellen Karcher from Rep. Jennifer Beck in the 12th Senate district.  I think Karcher will win, though.  I think the open 11th district senate seat also has an outside chance of competition.

I think Democrats are pretty sure to pick up an assembly seat in the 2nd but they may lose one in the 1st if Van Drew makes the aforementioned senate run.  Dems may pick up a seat in the 11th and both parties could pick up one in the 12th and 14th.  So the assembly could be either a wash all-in-all or, perhaps, a few seats to the dems.

All in all, 1-3 seats for Dems to pick-up.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's how I see the NJ State Senate playing out.

Sen 01: Assemblyman Van Drew (D) is running and polling has him strongly ahead of incumbent Sen. Asselta (R).  This looks like a Dem pickup.
Sen 02: Assemblyman Whelan (D) looks like a strong bet against appointed Sen. McCullough, but Republicans are trying to link him to the state casino shutdown.  Democrats favored to pick this seat up as well.
Sen 03: Registrationwise, the district is pretty even, but Sen. Sweeney (D) should be safe.
Sen 04: Upset 2003 winner Fred Madden (D) faces upset 2006 Gloucester Township councilman Dan Hutchison.  Unless the unions decide to heavily back Hutchison like they would have backed former Sen. Geist, this district strongly leans to the Democrats.
Sen 05: Sen. Wayne Bryant (D) is headed to prison (literally).  In this Camden City based district, Democrat Dana Redd will be an easy winner.
Sen 06: Sen. John Adler (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition.
Sen 07: Sen. Diane Allen (R) has proved to be an incredibly strong candidate in this incredibly Democratic district.  Democrats failed to recruit a worthy challenger, so Allen is headed to another landslide win.
Sen 08: Burlington Republicans forced their entire ticket to retire in this heavily Republican district because of ethics concerns.  The elder Sen. Martha Bark (R), whom was facing allegations of holding a no-show pension padding job, went away gracefully.  As did Assemblyman Chatzidakis (R), who missed all of last years budget votes because he decided to go on vacation.  But Assemblyman Fran Bodine, a longtime partisan Republican whom Democrats mercilessly slammed for his own ethics issues in 2005, was incensed at being forced from the ticket and announced yesterday he was switching parties and running for State Senate as a Democrat.  He will face Burlington County Clerk Phillip Haines in November.  The matchup should prove a good one, but Bodine's past ethics questions, combined with the strength of the Burlco GOP machine and the GOP lean of the district, should save this seat for the Republicans.  GOP hold by about five points.
Sen 09: Sen. Leonard Connors (R) is retiring in one of the most reliably Republican districts in the state -- his replacement will be Assemblyman Chris Connors, his son.  Democrats are unlikely to compete.
Sen 10: One time target Andrew Ciesla (R) looks unlikely to face a serious challenge in this reliably Republican district, if only because there are much more lucrative targets for Democrats out there.
Sen 11: Sen. Joe Palaia (R) is retiring; Assemblyman Sean Kean (R) is seeking to replace him.  Democrats made a serious play for this district in 2005 but fell short, but lower turnout in 2007 and a lack of strong Democratic candidates seems to point to a stronger Republican performance in a lean-Republican Monmouth County.
Sen 12: Democrats swept this heavily Republican district in 2003 because of ethics concerns of all three GOP incumbents.  Republicans were able to easily pick up an Assembly seat in 2005 with Red Bank Councilwoman Jen Beck (and missed winning the second by 65 votes).  Now, the popular Beck is trying to oust Sen. Karcher in the marquee race of the 2007 cycle.  My own feeling is that Beck narrowly ousts Karcher in a race that costs between $6 and $10 million dollars.  (Seriously.)
Sen 13: Democrats made an agressive play to pick up Assembly seats in 13 two years ago, but fell short.  They may try again, but Sen. Kyrillos (R) is no slouch.  He's favored to win a sixth term.
Sen 14: District 14 has a Democratic lean by registration, and the retirement of Sen. Pete Inverso (R) should have gotten Democrat's mouths salivating.  The problem for Dems here is that as popular as Inverso was, his likely successor, Assemblyman Bill Baroni (R), has proven even more popular, locking up massive union support within a week of announcing.  Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein (D) took a look at the race, but decided against it -- a smart move, considering she has consistently underperformed Baroni by significant margins since he first ran.  Democrat Seema Singh, state Rate Council, will get slaughtered by 20 points minimum.
Sen 15: Sen. Shirley Turner (D) is a lock in this Princeton and Trenton based district.
Sen 16: Sen. Walt Kavanaugh (R) is retiring, popular Assemblyman Kip Bateman is looking to replace him.  This Somerset County district is a safe GOP district for now, but changing demographics may put Democrats in play here a decade down the line.  Democrats may still nominate former Bridgewater mayor James Dowden, but this district is an uphill climb to say the least.
Sen 17: Sen. Robert Smith (D) is safe in his intensely Democratic New Brunswick based district.
Sen 18: Sen. Barbara Buono (D) is a popular incumbent in a strongly-but-not-safely Democratic district.  Republicans are unlikely to put up a fight.
Sen 19: Woodbridge native Sen. Joe Vitale (D) is unbeatable in Jim McGreevey's old State Senate district.
Sen 20: Controversial Sen. Ray Lesniak (D) is a Democratic heavyweight, and his urban Union County district will easily re-elect him.

[to be continued]

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

[...continued]

Sen 21: Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) is seeking re-election in a district he carried with a 37% margin last cycle.  Though his performance here was weak in his 2006 US Senate race, it's unlikely that openly gay small town mayor Gina Genovese will oust him in a strongly GOP district.
Sen 22: Sen. Nick Scutari (D) had a heck of a time winning what should have been a safe Democratic district in 2003 after a last minute Torricelli style switch.  Fast forward to 2007, where Scutari has been supoenaed by federal prosecutors in an investigation into "Christmas Tree" items.  Look for another ugly win here for Scutari.
Sen 23: Gentlemanly GOP Minority Leader Leonard Lance (R) will win re-election in his safe Hunterdon County district.  The real fight will be after the elections, where Sen. Tom Kean Jr. seeks to replace him as Minority Leader.
Sen 24: Sen. Robert Littell (R) is retiring and the GOP is having an incredibly nasty and bitter interparty fight to replace him.  Freeholder Steve Oroho has the support of Littell, but Assemblyman Guy Gregg has the support of just about everyone else.  Oroho is running a slash and burn campaign, and has likely ruined his future in this one-party district.
Sen 25: Sen. Anthony Bucco (R) is not the most ethically standing citizen in the world, but he's survived strong challenges in the past and put up wins against the best Morris County Democrats have to offer.
Sen 26: Liberal Sen. Robert Martin (R) is retiring, and Assemblyman Joe Pennacchio (R) is the odds on favorite to replace him.  The real action will be in the GOP primary to replace Pennacchio.
Sen 27: Former acting Governor Dick Codey (D) has this Essex County seat as long as he wants it, but rumors continue to swirl that he may not want it for long.  This district is way out of GOP reach regardless.
Sen 28: Sen. Ronald Rice (D), an ally of the old Sharpe James machine, is in a fight for his political life against Essex Co Freeholder Bilal Beasley (D), who has the support of new Newark Mayor Cory Booker.  This will be a race to watch on June 5, with Beasley having a slight edge.
Sen 29: Sen. Sharpe James (D) is making no announcements about his political future, but his son has already endorsed his potential successor, Booker backed Teresa Ruiz (D).  Assemblyman William Payne (D) is also considering the race, but he lacks institutional backing.  Ruiz should take the June 5 primary and face laughable opposition in the general.
Sen 30: A rarity this cycle: safe GOP Senator Robert Singer (R) is seeking re-election.  Democrats can't compete here in this weirdly misnumbered Ocean County district.
Sen 31: Hudson County Sen. Joe Doria (D) is retiring, rather than face a losing battle in the Democratic primary against Sandra Bolden Cunningham, widow of the incredibly popular former Jersey City Mayor (and State Senator) Glenn Cunningham.  Cunningham has the support of the Hudson County Democratic Organization; her opponent, Assemblyman Louis Manzo, is running for the seat because he lost their support.  Cunningham has the edge.
Sen 32: Sen. Nick Sacco (D) should emerge from the 2007 Hudson County wars unscathed.
Sen 33: Sen. Bernard Kenny (D) is retiring, and the race to replace him is ugly.  The Hudson County Democratic Organization is backing Assemblyman Sal Vega (D), while the more popular Assemblyman and Union City mayor Brian Stack (D) is running on his own rival line.  Stack has his own ethics woes, and Vega has the line, but it'd be foolish to count Stack out -- he seems slightly favored to win the June primary.
Sen 34: Sen. Nia Gill (D) survived a strong primary fight in 2003, but is in solid shape to win in 2007.
Sen 35: Sen. John Girgenti (D) is only potentially vulnerable in a Democratic primary, but no opposition to him there has developed.
Sen 36: Sen. Paul Sarlo (D) holds a swing district, but the GOP couldn't put together a ticket here in 2005 to even contest an open GOP seat.  With former Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano (R) out of the picture as a Sarlo challenger, and with Sarlo pulling significant GOP support inside the 36th, this district will say Democratic for a long time to come.
Sen 37: This safely Democratic Bergen County district is be the site of some major fireworks.  Incumbent Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D), a fiery progressive and major thorn in the side of Democratic boss Joe Ferriero, rejected an offer to run on the Bergen County Democratic Organization line because Ferriero refused to offer the line to her running mates incumbents as well.  Ferriero is now running the hyper-ambitious Michael Wildes (D) on the line in her stead; Wildes already has a massive warchest saved up for his future bid to replace Rep. Rothman.  The race is already getting ugly and it will get even uglier, but Ferriero seems outmatched(!).
Sen 38: Sen. Joe Coniglio (D) was a top GOP target in 2003, and he's facing the same federal supoena that weighs on Sen. Scutari.  Still, this district is getting more Democratic by the second, and the Bergen County GOP Organization is by-and-large now fully owned by Democratic boss Joe Ferriero.  It's impossible that Republicans can beat Coniglio here -- he'll have to beat himself.  And considering that candidates can be swapped out as late as October here in New Jersey, this district seems very likely to stay in Democratic hands.
Sen 39: There were questions whether or not Sen. Gerry Cardinale (R) would seek a ninth term, but Cardinale said "one more."  This is a moderate GOP district, but Bergen County Dems seem to have (surprisingly) declined to play here.
Sen 40: Sen. McNamara (R) is retiring, and the race to replace him is fierce on the GOP side.  Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico sold his soul to the Bergen County Democratic Organization for this -- the chance to play kingmaker in the remaining safe Bergen County GOP district.  His preferred candidate is former Freeholder Todd Caliguire (R), who is running the same nasty "Reagan Republican vs. Whitman Republican" campaign he used to win the 2006 Primary for County Executive.  [The real blame here lies with BCRO operative, Kevin Collins -- a nasty, brutal campaigner.]  Caliguire's opponent is Assemblyman Kevin O'Toole (R), a former State Senator who is the logical successor to McNamara.  If this election was being played entirely inside of Bergen, O'Toole would be in huge trouble (and he still might be!), but Passaic County and Essex County Republicans are firmly behind him.  To make matters even more confusing, former 36th District Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano (R) moved to the 40th and is rumored to be interested in running.  Give O'Toole a slight edge for now; whomever wins this GOP primary will win in November as well.

All totaled, that's a predicted net gain of one for Democrats: picking up LD 1 and LD 2 ( with a shot at LD 8 ) while losing LD 12 to the GOP.  Other races could develop in the meantime before the filing deadline, but nothing that would significantly change this forecast.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

[Keystone Phil]

Here's how I see the NJ State Senate playing out.

Sen 01: Assemblyman Van Drew (D) is running and polling has him strongly ahead of incumbent Sen. Asselta (R).  This looks like a Dem pickup.

Wow, they're already doing polling? I figured that Van Drew would win but to have him ahead by a lot already is odd.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And now, the State Assembly, where each district elects two candidates:

Assy 01: This should be a terrific opportunity for Republicans -- a strongly GOP district with an open Dem held seat (and a potentially vulnerable second Dem incumbent who won 2005 in a fluke).  Surprisingly, though, the GOP has fielded weak candidates, and that might put their "sure" pick-up in jeopardy.  I'll give one of these two seats to the GOP, and predict that Assemblyman Nelson Albano (D) wins a second term.
Assy 02: A pair of open seats - one GOP, one Dem - in a competitive but historically Republican district.  This looks like a great opportunity for Democrats, but Republicans seem just as likely to hold on.  Since both seats are open, one party is likely to win both -- I'll give the big spending Altantic County Democrats the edge here for now, but I'll note that I think the lower turnout will benefit Republicans.
Assy 03: Even split district, but 2 entrenched Dem incumbents.
Assy 04: The GOP used to be able to win here, but 2003 was a disaster and 2005 was even worse.  Democrats hold both seats, and while one is open, the GOP really won't be able to seriously play for it.
Assy 05: Safe Democratic.
Assy 06: Safe Democratic, and a potential site for a pilot clean elections program.
Assy 07: A great chance for the GOP to pick up seats on Democratic turf.  State Senator Diane Allen (R) had strong coattails in 2003 (compare the 2003 results to the 2005 results).  In 2007, the GOP is blessed with a star candidate: former Philly Flyer and Hall of Famer Brian Propp.  PoliticsNJ called this the GOP's best chance for picking up a seat -- I don't necessarily agree (and that analysis is old), but Republicans are in great shape.  Seems like a toss-up for the one seat, and African-American lawyer Nancy Whatley Griffin (R) could go along for the ride.
Assy 08: A split district, but only because Assemblyman Bodine switched from R to D.  This is safe GOP territory, and both open seats will go Republican, for a net pick-up of 1.
Assy 09: The GOP open seat will stay in Republican hands.
Assy 10: Safe Republican.
Assy 11: With a pair of GOP open seats here, Democrats are guaranteed to make a real play.  Smart money is still on the Republicans here to hold both - in all honesty, the Dem bench here isn't that great.
Assy 12: GOP Assemblywoman Jen Beck (R) is looking for a promotion to State Senate; Dem Assemblyman Mike Panter (D) is looking for a third term.  Beck's seat should go to 2005 near-winner Declan O'Scanlon (R), while Panter should hold on.  No net change.
Assy 13: Democrats couldn't pick up this seat when it was open in 2005; lower turnout is going to benefit Republicans.  Handlin (R) and Thompson (R) will be re-elected.
Assy 14: While the outcome of the 14th's Senate race is guaranteed, the competition for Assembly is not.  Democrats don't have a candidate yet to run for Assemblyman Baroni (R)'s open seat; Republicans have settled on Hamilton Councilman Thomas Goodwin (R) as their leading candidate.  Assemblywoman Greenstein (D), while not popular enough to beat Bill Baroni, should be the top vote getter in the race, leaving former Jamestown committeman Adam Bushman (R) in the dust.  I think the 14th will be sending Goodwin and Greenstein to Trenton, with no net change in the delegation.
Assy 15: Safe Democrat.
Assy 16: Kip Bateman (R) will be replaced by Somerset Freeholder Denise Coyle (R).  Safe GOP.
Assy 17: Safe Democrat.
Assy 18: Safe Democrat.
Assy 19: Assemblyman Joe Vas (D), once a likely goner for his challenge of Albio Sires last year, dodged a bullet when he failed to draw a serious primary challenger.  Safe Dem.
Assy 20: Safe Democrat.
Assy 21: Assemblyman Bramnick (R) is in great shape, Assemblyman Munoz (R) has ethics woes.  I think the GOP will try to replace Munoz, but even if they don't, he should still be able to claw out a victory in this basically Republican district.
Assy 22: Safe Democrat.
Assy 23: Safe GOP.
Assy 24: Safe GOP, but there will be some real action to replace Assemblyman Guy Gregg's open seat in the primary.  Assemblywoman McHose (R) has ruffled a few feather with her support of Oroho, but should get re-elected.  Gregg's seat will go to either the more moderate Freeholder Susan Zellman (R) or the more conservative Tewksbury Mayor Shaun VanDoren (R).
Assy 25: Assembly Merkt (R) and Carroll (R) have a pretty Republican seat, but they had a narrower than expected race in 2005 after Carroll's fervent opposition to stem cell research became an issue.  The incumbents are two of the most conservative the NJ GOP has to offer, and while impressive Democrat Dana Wefer could make this a race, Merkt and Carroll won't be caught sleeping again -- they hardly spent a cent to win in 2005.
Assy 26: Safe GOP, but an interesting primary -- moderate Larry Casha is battling conservative Jay Weber for an open GOP seat.  Both have great organizations, and while Weber has the more ground support, Casha is overflowing with campaign cash.  I'd bet on Weber.
Assy 27: Safe Democratic.
Assy 28: Safe Democratic, but an interesting primary.  Incumbents Craig Stanley (D) and Oadline Truitt (D) are out.  Booker allies Cleo Tucker (D) and Ralph Caputo (D) are in.
Assy 29: Safe Democratic.  The Essex County power shakeup caused by the absence of Sharpe James will hit 29 as well, with Grace Spencer (D) and former Assemblyman Albert Coutinho (D) headed to Trenton.  Incumbents Payne (D) and Caraballo (D) are out.
Assy 30: Safe GOP.
Assy 31: Safe Dem with a heated primary.  Sheila Newton-Moses (D) and Nick Chiaravalloti (D) are running off the line against former incumbent Democrat Anthony Chiappone (once out of favor with the Hudson machine, and now back in favor) and former State Senator L. Harvey Smith (D).  Smith and Chiappone have everything going for them and should be easy winners June 5th.
Assy 32: Safe Dem.
Assy 33: More ugly primary action with two safe Dem seats on the line.  The Vega slate, allied with the HDCO, is running Nicole Garcia (D) and Carol Martin (D).  The Stack slate is running Chris Campos (D) and Caridad Rodriguez (D).  This race is at the mercy of the State Senate race -- with Stack favored on top, Campos and Rodriguez are favored on bottom.
Assy 34: Safe Dem.
Assy 35: Safe Dem.
Assy 36: A battleground in 2003, a GOP slaughter in 2005.  Republicans don't have the resources to play in this blue collar district anymore.
Assy 37: Democratic Primary action.  Incumbents Gordon Johnson (D) and Val Huttle (D) are running on a progressive ticket with Sen. Weinberg off the line against the hand picked candidates of powerful Bergen boss Joe Ferriero: Cid Wilson (D) and former Assemblyman Ken Zisa (D).  Johnson and Huttle should be able to take out their challengers, and solidify their position for 2009.
Assy 38: Again, like District 36, this was once a battleground, but it's long since moved into the safe Dem column.
Assy 39: Moderate Republicans Vandervalk and Rooney were mentioned by conservatives as targets for defeat last year, but nothing has materialized yet.  Democrats don't seem interested in beating them either.
Assy 40: Ugly primary race.  Assemblyman Russo (R), a moderate, was dumped from the GOP line in Bergen by County Chair Guy Talarico as part of a power play.  His running mate, Wayne mayor Scott Rumana (R) is oft mentioned as a rising star; challengers John Ginty (who challenged Kean for the GOP US Senate nod in 2006) and Joe Schweighardt are running intensely conservative campaigns.  A smart GOP would do well to keep Russo and add Rumana; the Bergen GOP may just do the opposite.  If Ginty's team wins, 40 could get put on the Democrats' radar, but expect a GOP win here in November anyway.


The Assembly looks like its in equilibrium for now, numberwise.  The current 50 D - 30 R lineup looks like it'll go back to the post-2005 election totals of 49 D - 31 R, with party switcher Bodine's seat being the most likely to change.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's how I see the NJ State Senate playing out.

Sen 01: Assemblyman Van Drew (D) is running and polling has him strongly ahead of incumbent Sen. Asselta (R).  This looks like a Dem pickup.

Wow, they're already doing polling? I figured that Van Drew would win but to have him ahead by a lot already is odd.

The polling showed Van Drew up by 16 and was used to coax him into the race.

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

Yes, there are -- Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola would make a terrific candidate, as would County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.  Neither would meet the approval of Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico, who, like I previously mentioned, is bought and paid for by Bergen County Democrats.

So long as Talarico rules, Sarlo will never face a serious challenge.

[MAS117]

Very good job Mr. Moderate. I agree with your predictions in that the D's will pick up LD1 and 2 in the Senate, but thats it. As for Senator Karchers race, I think shell win but it will be very highly contested.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

Yes, there are -- Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola would make a terrific candidate, as would County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.  Neither would meet the approval of Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico, who, like I previously mentioned, is bought and paid for by Bergen County Democrats.

So long as Talarico rules, Sarlo will never face a serious challenge.

Donovan would have beaten McNerney last year, Talarico is a complete idiot.  But lets' not forget it is also the primary voters who did not elect Donovan.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

Yes, there are -- Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola would make a terrific candidate, as would County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.  Neither would meet the approval of Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico, who, like I previously mentioned, is bought and paid for by Bergen County Democrats.

So long as Talarico rules, Sarlo will never face a serious challenge.

Donovan would have beaten McNerney last year, Talarico is a complete idiot.  But lets' not forget it is also the primary voters who did not elect Donovan.

In a primary election, there really is something to be said for having your name first on the ballot.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

Yes, there are -- Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola would make a terrific candidate, as would County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.  Neither would meet the approval of Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico, who, like I previously mentioned, is bought and paid for by Bergen County Democrats.

So long as Talarico rules, Sarlo will never face a serious challenge.

Donovan would have beaten McNerney last year, Talarico is a complete idiot.  But lets' not forget it is also the primary voters who did not elect Donovan.

In a primary election, there really is something to be said for having your name first on the ballot.

Mr. Moderate, are you originally from NJ or something?  B/c you seem to be the only person on this forum not from NJ who knows all the people I mention

[Verily]

Here's how I see the NJ State Senate playing out.

Sen 01: Assemblyman Van Drew (D) is running and polling has him strongly ahead of incumbent Sen. Asselta (R).  This looks like a Dem pickup.

Wow, they're already doing polling? I figured that Van Drew would win but to have him ahead by a lot already is odd.

The polling showed Van Drew up by 16 and was used to coax him into the race.

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

Yes, there are -- Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola would make a terrific candidate, as would County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.  Neither would meet the approval of Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico, who, like I previously mentioned, is bought and paid for by Bergen County Democrats.

So long as Talarico rules, Sarlo will never face a serious challenge.

As someone who likes Donovan as our County Clerk, I wouldn't support her for Senate. OTOH, Sarlo's not my district; my State Senator is Weinberg.

Talarico isn't bought by the Bergen County Democrats, either, he's bought by Ferreiro, whose power over the Bergen County Democrats is fading despite being chairman.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Donovan actually lives right in my town so there is really no way they could redistrict me out of her district at any time, so if she were a senator I could keep voting for her

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

Yes, there are -- Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola would make a terrific candidate, as would County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.  Neither would meet the approval of Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico, who, like I previously mentioned, is bought and paid for by Bergen County Democrats.

So long as Talarico rules, Sarlo will never face a serious challenge.

Donovan would have beaten McNerney last year, Talarico is a complete idiot.  But lets' not forget it is also the primary voters who did not elect Donovan.

In a primary election, there really is something to be said for having your name first on the ballot.

Mr. Moderate, are you originally from NJ or something?  B/c you seem to be the only person on this forum not from NJ who knows all the people I mention

Indeed.  I used to work as a political reporter in the great Garden State.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are they any candidates that could challenge Sarlo in the 36th?  I'm really tired of that guy

Yes, there are -- Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola would make a terrific candidate, as would County Clerk Kathleen Donovan.  Neither would meet the approval of Bergen County GOP Chair Guy Talarico, who, like I previously mentioned, is bought and paid for by Bergen County Democrats.

So long as Talarico rules, Sarlo will never face a serious challenge.

Donovan would have beaten McNerney last year, Talarico is a complete idiot.  But lets' not forget it is also the primary voters who did not elect Donovan.

In a primary election, there really is something to be said for having your name first on the ballot.

Mr. Moderate, are you originally from NJ or something?  B/c you seem to be the only person on this forum not from NJ who knows all the people I mention

Indeed.  I used to work as a political reporter in the great Garden State.

That would do it, so then can I get your opinion on Steve Lonegan?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

That would do it, so then can I get your opinion on Steve Lonegan?

Nobody works harder to elect Democrats in New Jersey than Steve Lonegan.

He's a hard right activist that does nothing but throw bombs and grab headlines through outrageous stunts.  If the GOP candidate in the General Election fails to meet up with his standards, he'll loudly and publically try to sink the campaign.

He truly takes joy in starting shootouts in a lifeboat.

[DownWithTheLeft]

That would do it, so then can I get your opinion on Steve Lonegan?

Few people work harder to elect Democrats in New Jersey than Steve Lonegan.

He's a hard right activist that does nothing but throw bombs and grab headlines through outrageous stunts.  If the GOP candidate in the General Election fails to meet up with his standards, he'll loudly and publically try to sink the campaign.

Few people take more joy in starting a shootout in a lifeboat.

Lol, I personally know him quite well and admire him.  I know what your saying though.  Lonegan's points are often mistaken though.  The idea of wanting to save money by eliminating bilingual government was turned into racism and he was unable to spin it back.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lol, I personally know him quite well and admire him.  I know what your saying though.  Lonegan's points are often mistaken though.  The idea of wanting to save money by eliminating bilingual government was turned into racism and he was unable to spin it back.

I don't think him a racist, but I know he has better things to do than complain about a McDonalds billboard being printed in spanish.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Lol, I personally know him quite well and admire him.  I know what your saying though.  Lonegan's points are often mistaken though.  The idea of wanting to save money by eliminating bilingual government was turned into racism and he was unable to spin it back.

I don't think him a racist, but I know he has better things to do than complain about a McDonalds billboard being printed in spanish.

I talked to Steve about this issue and he told me it was more the issue of bilingual printing costing the taxpayer's money and he wanted to draw attention to it and this was the oppurtunity that came knocking

[Keystone Phil]

And now, the State Assembly, where each district elects two candidates:

Assy 01: This should be a terrific opportunity for Republicans -- a strongly GOP district with an open Dem held seat (and a potentially vulnerable second Dem incumbent who won 2005 in a fluke).  Surprisingly, though, the GOP has fielded weak candidates, and that might put their "sure" pick-up in jeopardy.  I'll give one of these two seats to the GOP, and predict that Assemblyman Nelson Albano (D) wins a second term.

These local parties are really screwing up. The fact that Albano won in 2005 was insane enough and now he'll get an easy ride. I am close to one of the NJ posters here so I know a bit about the weak candidates that they fielded. I also follow some Cape May county politics because I vacation in Sea Isle City, home of freeholder and Mayor Len Desiderio. I thought it was a given that he'd be running for a seat. Do you have any idea why he passed on it?