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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2007 Gubernatorial Predictions
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Latest 2007 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Gabu (D-BC)MapProfile 05-08 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
boris78 (D-IL)MapProfile 05-08 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
ottermax (D-WA)MapProfile 05-16 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Gustaf (D-SWE)MapProfile 05-18 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
nini2000 (I-PA)MapProfile 05-18 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
liberalPA (O-PA)MapProfile 05-18 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
tddvandy (D-TN)Map 05-19 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Hooverin28 (C-IA)Map 05-19 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Aguagon (D-AZ)MapProfile 05-21 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Shilly (I-CA)MapProfile 05-22 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2007 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ktapley (R-MD)Map 11-06 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Cylon Candidate (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 4 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
BushCountry (I-IN)Map 11-04 8 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
klrbzzz (I-KY)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
JohnnyLongtorso (I-VA)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
gkevgas (D-NY)Map 11-03 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
bgwah (D-WA)MapProfile 11-02 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
mercutio3000 (D-WA)Map 11-02 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
jackass342 (I-OH)Map 10-31 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
CultureKing (D-WA)MapProfile 10-31 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2007 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
downwithdaleft (R-NJ)
by texaslefty on 2007-11-29 @ 09:58:41
MapProfile 05-19 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 1
HarryHayfield (I-GBR)
by HarryHayfield on 2007-11-07 @ 03:51:59
MapProfile 09-02 1 D +2 0 (-2) 3 (+2) 0 (0) 1
etrush (R-NE)
by cnbpjb on 2007-10-21 @ 11:06:09
Map 10-20 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 1
jamespol (I-MO)
by texaslefty on 2007-09-20 @ 05:28:49
MapProfile 07-03 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 1
BrandonH (C-LA)
by D Adams on 2007-08-25 @ 15:11:00
MapProfile 05-18 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 4
allenw2001 (R-CA)
by Fabian Fastman on 2007-08-13 @ 14:54:37
Map 08-12 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 1
AuH2O (R-NC)
by jamespol on 2007-07-11 @ 23:59:56
Map 06-05 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 3
Kyle (D-TX)
by cnbpjb on 2007-07-03 @ 12:41:29
Map 06-21 1 D +2 0 (-2) 3 (+2) 0 (0) 2
Chris Brown (R-WA)
by Chris Brown on 2007-06-21 @ 11:28:10
Map 06-17 2 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 2
gumball machine (L-CA)
by Eytan on 2007-06-20 @ 07:41:17
MapProfile 06-11 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 2
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2007 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 41130 times)
PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #25 on: May 09, 2007, 03:36:07 am »
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Made my prediction...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #26 on: May 09, 2007, 04:46:11 am »
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If it's Beshear versus Fletcher, I think Beshear will win by at least 20 points. I think it could be 2-to-1. That is, unless Beshear says something incredibly idiotic.

For the life of me, I cannot understand how Fletcher got in there in the first place (even with all the GOP voter fraud that Kentucky has become known for).

For who are you voting in the Primary and then in the General Election if I may ask ?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #27 on: May 09, 2007, 05:04:14 pm »
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Thanks Dave!

MS = Safe Republican
LA = Likely Republican
KY = Lean Dem - the reason why it lies in this category is b/c I want to see who the Dem nominee is; whether Fletcher is the Rep nominee (and I now suspect he will be); and I want to see a few horse race polls so I can see how weak (or maybe not as weak) Fletcher is against the Dem.  SUSA approval polls are nice for us to make comments, but they are not dispositive in horse races.

Why bother reposting exactly what you said!

Although I personally don't call anything safe this far out, it would take a miracle in Mississippi for the Democrats.

I don't see why not, even though I would like to have some polls.  I do take into account the recent dysfunction in the MS Democratic party of late and the fact that the candidates running are really only classic 2nd and 3rd-tier candidates.  Also, the election is not that far away (5 months).

In LA, if I wasn't taking the racism into account, I would seriously think about putting this race in safe R.  While money is not everything, the fact that Jindal has almost $5 million in the bank and was clearly beating Breaux in the horse races makes me wonder whether any serious Democrat is going to step in.  LA is the countervailing trend to national trends right now in many ways and that must also be taken into account.
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« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2007, 05:16:24 pm »
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For what it's worth, this is what I said in my predictions:

KY (lean Dem): I have a feeling that Fletcher just might be the nominee here, making it a lean Dem race. It'll go down to tossup Dem if Northup manages to win.

LA (strong Rep): The Democratic side is more a circus than a legitimate primary. The Republicans are all but crowning their best bet, Jindal. We might as well swear Jindal in right now.

MS (lean Rep): I don't know enough about the Democrats to be able to confidently place this at srong Dem, but Barbour probably will win.
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« Reply #29 on: May 09, 2007, 05:53:04 pm »
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haha, it looks like everyone has the same prediction right now.

...though that'll probably change when Harry makes his Tongue
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« Reply #30 on: May 09, 2007, 08:51:37 pm »
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For who are you voting in the Primary and then in the General Election if I may ask ?

I'm voting for Galbraith in the primary.

In the general, I'm probably voting for whoever wins the Democratic nomination, unless there's a strong independent running.
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« Reply #31 on: May 10, 2007, 09:32:33 pm »
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haha, it looks like everyone has the same prediction right now.

...though that'll probably change when Harry makes his Tongue
Sigh, I can't honestly predict that Barbour will lose yet, but I definitely don't think MS can be classified as "strong Rep" at this stage in the game.
Eaves has the $$$ to keep Barbour close.
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« Reply #32 on: May 14, 2007, 08:39:01 pm »
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"Blind" Predictions for the Kentucky primary

STATE AGRICULTURE COMMISSONER-R: Farmer 75, Stosberg 25
STATE AGRICULTURE COMMISSONER-D: Neville 60, Williams 40

STATE TREASURER-D: Weaver 41,  Hollenbach 24, Dunmire 23, Wood 12
STATE TREASURER-R: Upchurch 33, Napier 27, Wheeler 27, Smith 13

SECRETARY OF STATE-D: Robinson 58, Hendrickson 29, White 13

ATTORNEY GENERAL-D: Conway 61, Bullock 39
ATTORNEY GENERAL-R: Coleman 41, Lee 30, Kimball 21, Larson 8

GOVERNOR & LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR-R: Northup 47, Fletcher 38, Harper 15
GOVERNOR & LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR-D: Beshear 33, Lunsford 27, Richards 15, Henry 14, Galbraith 7, Hensley 4

Any thoughts?
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RBH
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« Reply #33 on: May 14, 2007, 08:42:11 pm »
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If Lunsford or Henry beat Galbraith in a Democratic primary, of all things, then the Democratic Party might as well just disband.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2007, 10:35:51 am »

Congratulations to Gabu for the earliest 100% prediction for 2007 Governors (5/8/07) beating out boris78 by just under three minutes!
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