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True Democrat
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« on: April 08, 2007, 02:47:21 pm »
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I'm doing a research paper for school on the 1968 election, so I thought I'd do an alternate history on it.  I don't know how realistic it will be, but we'll see how it goes.  All things I don't put in here stay the same as in OTL.

The Republican Nomination Fight

March 21, 1968

Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York holds a press conference in Albany.  To the surprise of few, he announces that he will be a candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States.  He is immediately entered in a number of primaries (including Nebraska, where all candidates are immediately entered).

Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland, head of the Draft Rockefeller Committee, is given a high level position in the official Rockefeller campaign.

March 31, 1968

President Johnson withdraws from the race.

April 20, 1968

Governor Ronald Reagan, seeing how he has a better chance of winning a three way Republican fight, announces he will not just be a favorite son from California, but he will contest all primaries.

April 30, 1968

In the Massachusetts primary, Rockefeller easily wins with 68% (Nixon did not even campaign here).

May 14, 1968

The results of the first competitive Republican primary is in.

Nebraska:
Nixon: 48%
Reagan: 41%
Rockefeller: 11%

Reagan makes it much closer than expected, which gives him momentum for Oregon.

May 28, 1968

Reagan and Nixon battle it out for the Florida primary, as expected, but Reagan pulls off a victory:
Reagan: 51%
Nixon: 43%
Rockefeller: 6%

However, in Oregon, it is essentially a three way tie, but Rockefeller claims victory:
Rockefeller: 36%
Nixon: 32%
Reagan: 31%

More to come later. . .
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Lol Winfield.  This quote is from a thread entitled "what do the following proceed to do if they are not nominated?"
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2007, 04:02:36 pm »
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I'm doing a research paper for school on the 1968 election, so I thought I'd do an alternate history on it.  I don't know how realistic it will be, but we'll see how it goes.  All things I don't put in here stay the same as in OTL.

The Republican Nomination Fight

March 21, 1968

Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York holds a press conference in Albany.  To the surprise of few, he announces that he will be a candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States.  He is immediately entered in a number of primaries (including Nebraska, where all candidates are immediately entered).

Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland, head of the Draft Rockefeller Committee, is given a high level position in the official Rockefeller campaign.

March 31, 1968

President Johnson withdraws from the race.

April 20, 1968

Governor Ronald Reagan, seeing how he has a better chance of winning a three way Republican fight, announces he will not just be a favorite son from California, but he will contest all primaries.

April 30, 1968

In the Massachusetts primary, Rockefeller easily wins with 68% (Nixon did not even campaign here).

May 14, 1968

The results of the first competitive Republican primary is in.

Nebraska:
Nixon: 48%
Reagan: 41%
Rockefeller: 11%

Reagan makes it much closer than expected, which gives him momentum for Oregon.

May 28, 1968

Reagan and Nixon battle it out for the Florida primary, as expected, but Reagan pulls off a victory:
Reagan: 51%
Nixon: 43%
Rockefeller: 6%

However, in Oregon, it is essentially a three way tie, but Rockefeller claims victory:
Rockefeller: 36%
Nixon: 32%
Reagan: 31%

More to come later. . .

Goos. Please continue. by the way, my idea with the democrats is to have RFK not be assainated and he be the nominee for the democrats. Sounds like you have it going with the GOP candidates.
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the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2007, 04:03:16 pm »
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By the time of Republican convention in Miami, Nixon is still leading, but Rockefeller and Reagan are right on his heals.  Reagan's meeting with Thurmond helped him greatly in the South.  Nixon's two opponents now have enough votes to probably deny him a first ballot victory.

The first ballot looks like this:
Needed to win: 667
Nixon: 546
Rockefeller: 350
Reagan: 255
Rhodes: 55
Romney: 50
Case: 22
Carlson: 20
W. Rockefeller: 18
Fong: 14
Stassen: 2
Lindsay: 1

On the second ballot, most favorite sons disappear, which actually gives Rockefeller and Nixon boosts due to these favorite sons supporting one of these two candidates:
Nixon: 603
Rockefeller: 423
Reagan: 277
Rhodes: 21
Fong: 9

The third ballot gets rid of all nonmajor candidates.  Also, there is some movement in the Southern delegations from Nixon to Reagan:
Nixon: 580
Rockefeller: 450
Reagan: 303

Delegates now see Nixon as slipping.  Moderates and liberals move towards Rockefeller while conservatives go for Reagan.  There is even talk of a Rockefeller-Reagan ticket.  Rockefeller has taken the lead on the fourth ballot:
Rockefeller: 538
Nixon: 406
Reagan: 389

Rockefeller ascent now stops, as almost every liberal and moderate has already moved towards him.  Reagan gets into second on the fifth ballot:
Rockefeller: 548
Reagan: 433
Nixon: 352

Rockefeller knows that in order to stop Reagan's momentum, he must be able to name a conservative to the bottom of the ticket.  Rockefeller first looks to Agnew as a possible compromise candidate, but a background check shows he has taken kickbacks as governor.  Rockefeller promises the convention that he will name Governor James Rhodes of Ohio as his Vice Presidential nominee if he is nominated.  This brings the support of the Ohio delegation, with its 58 votes (most of which had been supporting Nixon still).  Rockefeller also gets more support from Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin.  As it appears Rockefeller will win the nomination, every remaining moderate rushes to him hoping to get a piece of the action.  This rush, which prompted by Rockefeller's men spreading rumours of his eventual nomination, gives Rockefeller the win on the sixth ballot:
Rockefeller: 679
Reagan: 502
Nixon: 152

Rockefeller realizes his dream and is nominated as the Republican candidate for President.  For VP, Rockefeller grudgingly names Rhodes.  However, his Rockefeller's associates tell delegates to vote for Rhodes, who Rockefeller doesn't actually like too much.  Instead, Rockefeller would rather have Daniel J. Evans, the keynote speaker, who is nominated by Washington.  The first ballot of the VP nomination looks like this:
Rhodes: 555
Reagan: 388
Evans: 311
Romney: 57
Lindsay: 10
Brooke: 1
Not Voting: 11

Lesser candidates and Reagan drop out.  Rhodes nearly clinches the nomination.  Many southern delegates do not vote.  The second ballot:
Rhodes: 651
Evans: 560
Not Voting: 122

However, on the third ballot, with most Southerners already disavowing Rockefeller, he switches his support to Evans, which gives Evans victory:
Evans: 760
Rhodes: 386
Not Voting: 187

The Rockefeller/Evans ticket is nominated by the Republicans for the upcoming election.  However, in the process, Rockefeller has pissed off the Southern and Midwestern wings of the party, which will hurt him greatly in the fall.  Wallace is the main recipient of this anger.  A post convention poll shows the following:
Rockefeller/Evans: 39%
Humphrey/?: 31%
Wallace/?: 22%
Other/Undecided: 8%

Rockefeller's seven point lead is smaller than expected.
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2007, 05:00:42 pm »
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Interesting. Keep it up.
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« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2007, 05:46:53 pm »
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The Democratic Nomination Fight

June 5, 1968

Shortly after winning the California primary, Senator Robert F. Kennedy is shot by Sirhan Sirhan.  He dies the next day.

1968 Democratic National Convention:

In a surprisingly close vote, the majority plank (pro-Johnson) on Vietnam is adopted with the follwoing margin:
Majority Plank: 1334.75
Peace Plank: 1274.25

With such a close vote, the Draft Ted Kennedy movement led by California delegation head Jesse Unruh heats up.  On the morning of August 28, 1968, Ted Kennedy is quoted as saying, "If the delegates wish to vote for me, I can do nothing but accept.  I will not withdraw my name if nominated."  In response to this, South Dakota Senator George McGovern, who was basically a stand-in for RFK delegates drops out.

The major candidates for the Democratic nomination are as follows:
Vice President Hubert Humphrey
Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy
Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy
Georgia Governor Lester Maddox

Maddox, who announced a couple of weeks earlier, starts to steal the Southern delegations away from Humphrey.

The first ballot looks like this:
Needed to win: 1312
Humphrey: 1002.25
Kennedy: 546.5
McCarthy: 498
Maddox: 427.25
Others: 148

On the second ballot, Maddox gains in the South (getting nearly all of the 527 delegates).  McCarthy's delegates go to Kennedy, and even Humphrey begins to slip as Mayor Daley switches his support to Kennedy:
Humphrey: 935.25
Kennedy: 792
Maddox: 502
McCarthy: 351.5
Others: 41.25

By the third ballot, Maddox has lost all momentum, actually losing votes.  McCarthy is dead in the water, and almost every other candidate has disappeared:
Humphrey: 984.25
Kennedy: 973.5
Maddox: 421
McCarthy: 233.75
Others: 9.5

However, anti-war delegates now rally behind Kennedy.  McCarthy even drops out and endorses Kennedy, though grudgingly.  Southern delegations begin to move towards Humphrey, but many liberal Humphrey delegates begin to move towards Kennedy as Humphrey moderates his positions to get some Southern support.  On the fourth ballot, Kennedy moves ahead of Humphrey and surprisingly wins the nomination with a few votes over the majority needed:
Kennedy: 1330.75
Humphrey: 1064.75
Maddox: 222.5
Others: 4

Kennedy, who announced his candidacy only that morning, has won the Democratic nomination for President at the age of 36.  For Vice-President, he puts forward the name of South Dakota Senator George McGovern.  McGovern is a surprising choice because he doesn't really add much to the ticket.  However, McGovern has been a long supporter of the Kennedys and even stood in for RFK delegates.  McGovern is easily nominated on the first ballot.  Kennedy also reconvenes the platform committee to change the Vietnam plank for a Dove Plank.

LBJ refuses to come out for Kennedy, instead choosing to remain neutral (in private he supported Nixon).

Soon after this, George Wallace announces that General Curtis LeMay will join his ticket.  This is latest Gallup poll after the announcement of LeMay:
Rockefeller/Evans: 32%
Kennedy/McGovern: 30%
Wallace/LeMay: 25%
Other/Undecided: 13%

With no major pro-escalation candidate, many who support the Vietnam war are now either undecided or supporting Wallace.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2007, 06:22:07 pm by True Democrat »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2007, 06:21:19 pm »
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The main issues of the general election campaign are law and order and Vietnam.  Rockefeller, who hoped to win over liberals when Humphrey was nominated is now left without a base.  Conservatives in the Republican party are now supporting Wallace or are not going to show up.  Antiwar voters have rallied behind Kennedy, while Rockefeller can claim those in the center.

Kennedy, who invokes the memories of his brothers, begins to gain the polls.  Rockefeller attempts to use his record as Governor of New York, with his desire to help the poor, as a rallying call to Great Society advocates, but even these voters are now behind Kennedy.

A poll in mid-October shows the following:
Kennedy/McGovern: 38%
Rockefeller/Evans: 30%
Wallace/LeMay: 25%
Undecided/Other: 7%

For the part of the campaign, Wallace goes on a blitz advocating not only his hardline position on law and order, but also his support of the escalation of the Vietnam War.  This draws away what little conservative support Rockefeller has left.  Finally, President Johnson announces shortly before the election that the bombing of North Vietnam will halt.  This is seen as him agreeing with Kennedy.  Finally, a few days before the election, Johnson endorses Kennedy.  However, for weeks behind the scenes Johnson has been utilizing the Texas machine, by getting Yarborough and Connolly to sign a temporary truce, to get out the vote for Kennedy.  The final poll before the election shows a boost for Kennedy:
Kennedy/McGovern: 42%
Rockefeller/Evans: 29%
Wallace/LeMay: 26%
Undecided/Other: 3%

On election day, Kennedy's numbers are about what was expected, although maybe a little higher.  Rockefeller does horribly, barely beating Wallace.  In the Northeast, Kennedy wins every state.  The midwest is a sweep for Kennedy, with the right vote split between Rockefeller and Wallace.  In the West, Wallace does extremely well, splitting the vote.  The South is completely for Wallace, even most of the Outer South.  Finally, the Pacific west goes for Kennedy, with even Evans' home state of Washington going for Kennedy.  Overall, the electoral college is blowout for Kennedy:


Kennedy/McGovern: 31,589,677 (43.15%), 403 electoral votes
Rockefeller/Evans: 20,977,297 (28.66%), 24 electoral votes
Wallace/LeMay: 20,389,766 (27.86%), 111 electoral votes
Others: 243,258 (0.33%), 0 electoral votes
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2007, 05:11:27 pm »
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President Kennedy, who is 36 at inauguration, is seen as inexperienced for the first couple months of his term.  He has trouble adjusting from the Senate to the Presidency, as he still tries to work with legislators as a peer.  However, by about September of 1969 he begins to look like a leader.

Kennedy's first order of business to pull out the troops out of Vietnam.  Although many Democrats, such as Vice President McGovern (privately), want an immediate pullout (meaning in the next six months), President Kennedy knows that he must get Republicans and conservative Democrats on board for any pullout plan to work.

This is the Congress that Kennedy must work with (after the appointments of Goodell (R) in NY to fill RFK's seat and Stevens in Alaska (R) to fill Bartlet's seat):

Senate:
Democrats: 58
Republicans: 42
(As compared to real life, the Democrats were able to hold Oregon)

House:
Democrats: 251
Republicans: 184

Kennedy, by negotiating with hawks in Congress, is able to agree on a two and a half year pullout, but with no restrictions on how long advisors and economic aid will remain for the South Vietnamese government.

In June of 1970, a huge scandal breaks in the Kennedy administration.  It appears as though many senior members of the Defense Department have been taking kickbacks from companies who are helping with the pullout from Vietnam (many of these companies supplying food to the troops and are helping with reintegration into society).  The Undersecretary and a few Assistant Secretaries are implicated in the scandal.  Although no evidence is found against the Secretary of Defense, he nonetheless resigns.

This scandal hurts Democrats across the board in the 1970 elections, with the following results:

Senate:
Republicans: 51 (+9)
Democrats: 47 (-11)
Conservatives: 1 (+1) (caucuses with Republicans)
Independents: 1 (+1) (caucuses with Republicans)

Republicans and their conservative ally in New York are able to pick up 10 seats.  Additionally, Harry Byrd, now an Independent from Virginia, begins to caucus with the Republicans.  This is the first time Republicans have taken the chamber since the early 1950s.

Democrats are able to hold onto the House, but Republicans make great gains:
Democrats: 220 (-31)
Republicans: 212 (+28)
Independents: 3 (+3) (caucus with Democrats)

Three "peace Democrats" no longer affiliate themselves with the Democrats over disagreement with Kennedy over the Defense Department scandal and over the gradual pullout.

The second half of Kennedy's term shows Kennedy's stark move to the right.  In order to work with the Republicans in the Senate (and Majority Leader Hugh Scott).  Kennedy scales back his expansion of the Great Society programs and agrees to a slightly more agressive Defense budget.
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2007, 07:32:36 pm »
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1972 Presidential Election

December 14, 1971

Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota (Humphrey decided not to run for Senate in 1970) declares he is a candidate for the Democratic nomination to oppose President Kennedy.  He says that "Ted Kennedy has shown himself to simply be a puppet of the Republicans in the Senate."

December 20, 1971

Governor William Scranton announces he will be the candidate for the Repubican nomination.  Scranton, the Governor of Pennsylvania, is largely seen as Rockefeller's candidate to represent the moderate and liberal factions of the party.  In 1966, Scranton announced he would never run for office again.  However, he broke this pledge in 1970 when he ran for Governor of Pennsylvania against and won in a landslide victory in the Republican year of pickups.

January 3, 1972

Governor George Wallace of Alabama announces he too will challenge President Kennedy in the primaries.  Kennedy is assumed to be running, though he has made no formal announcement yet.

January 5, 1972

Ronald Reagan announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

January 15, 1972

Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee announces he will run for President.

January 19, 1972

In his State of the Union Address, President Kennedy praises his (small) extension of the Greaty Society and the pullout from Vietnam.  Citing this evidence, President Kennedy the next day announces he will seek reelection.

January 24, 1972

The Iowa caucses produce the following results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 64%
Wallace: 17%
McCarthy: 10%
Others: 9%

Kennedy does worse than expected, mainly due to Wallace's good showing.  McCarthy announces that if he does not do well in the New Hampshire primary, then he will drop out of the race.  Many liberals are urging Mo Udall to jump into the race as a viable liberal, anti-war Democrat to the now more moderate Kennedy.

Republicans:
Reagan: 35%
Baker: 30%
Scranton: 23%
Others: 12%

Although Reagn was expected to win, Baker's surprise second place showing gives him the "big Mo.'"  Scranton was supposed to be competing for first, but with this dismal showing, many believe that Rockefeller has now lost all influence in the party.

In the month inbetween Iowa and New Hampshire, no new candidate jump into the race.  All six major candidates still believe that they can clinch victory.  Both Hubert Humphrey and Scoop Jackson considered joining the race, but decided against, believing that Kennedy could not be stopped.

March 7, 1972

The New Hampshire primary has the following results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 55%
McCarthy: 19%
Udall (Write-in): 17%
Wallace: 7%
Others: 2%

Kennedy once again does worse than expected but is still able to hold onto a majority.  McCarthy believes he has done well enough to continue his campaign (although most pundits count him out).  Udall's surprise write-in showing has no propelled him as the main liberal opponent of Kennedy.  Wallace actually does better than expected in such a Northern state.

Republicans:
Scranton: 42%
Baker: 34%
Reagan: 16%
Others: 8%

Although Scranton's showing is a surprise, Reagan's 16% is the shocker of the night.  Reagan was expected to at least get second in this primary, but with only 16%, he is now contemplating dropping out of the race.  The next primary, Florida, is a must win for Reagan to show that the conservative base is still behind him.

March 14, 1972

Florida Results:

Democrats:
Wallace: 67%
Udall (Write-in): 17%
Kennedy: 13%
McCarthy: 2%
Others: 1%

Wallace's result is not unexpected, as many Dixiecrats showed up to vote, but Kennedy's loss to Udall puts Udall as the head challenger to Kennedy.  McCarthy announces he will drop out of the race.  Udall still refuses to formally enter.

Republicans:
Baker: 40%
Reagan: 39%
Scranton: 16%
Others: 5%

Although it is only a one point victory, Baker's upset over Reagan shows that Baker now has much conservative support.  Reagan announces that he will drop out and never run for President again.

March 21, 1972

Illinois Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 51%
Udall (Write-in): 31%
Wallace: 11%
McCarthy (Write-in): 4%
Others: 3%

McCarthy considers jumping back in with a fairly strong write-in campaign, but decides against it.  Wallace does worse than expected, especially in Southern Illinois.  Udall makes a promise that if his write-in campaign does well in the next primary, he will formally jump into the race.

Republicans:
Scranton: 48%
Baker: 36%
Reagan (Write-in): 12%
Others: 4%

Most expected Baker to take this primary, but Scranton's win puts him back in the race for the nomination.

April 4, 1972

Wisconsin Primary Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 47%
Udall (Write-in): 44%
Wallace: 8%
Others: 1%

Udall is able to hold Kennedy to less than 50%.  He announces that he will enter the race for the Democratic nomination.  He immediately receives the endorsement of both McCarthy and Humphrey.

Republicans:
Scranton: 51%
Baker: 38%
Reagan (Write-in): 5%
Others: 6%

Another surprise win for Scranton puts him now ahead of Baker nationally.  Most voters see Baker as too inexperienced compared to Scranton.

April 25, 1972

The day of huge two primaries are essential for all five major candidates.

First, the Massachusetts primary:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 78%
Udall: 19%
Wallace: 2%
Others: 1%

Kennedy easily wins his home state's primary.

Republicans:
Scranton: 61%
Baker: 35%
Others: 4%

Scranton's big win in such a liberal primary state is expected.

Pennsylvania:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 39%
Udall: 36%
Wallace: 21%
Others: 4%

Kennedy is able to hold onto victory, but just barely.  Wallace's showing is unexpected, but he does well in Southwestern Pennsylvania among blue collar workers.

Republicans:
Scranton: 63%
Baker: 35%
Others: 2%

Scranton does very well in his home state, although not as well as expected.  Baker is able to capture over one third of Republicans who voted for Scranton only two years earlier.

May 2, 1972

Two primaries for Republicans and three for Democrats are held today.

DC (Democrats only):
Kennedy: 78%
Udall: 16%
Wallace: 3%
Others: 2%

Kennedy is able to cruise to an easy victory through continued support from the black community.

Indiana Results:

Democrats:
Udall: 42%
Kennedy: 35%
Wallace: 18%
Others: 5%

Udall is able to do what Kennedy's brother did only four years earlier.  Kennedy's loss in this primary shows that Udall is a viable candidate.  Udall also promises that if he is elected, he will pull the remaining 15,000 military advisors out of Vietnam.

Republicans:
Baker: 58%
Scranton: 40%
Others: 2%

Baker's large victory in this primary puts him back into the race.

Ohio Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 45%
Udall: 41%
Wallace: 12%
Others: 2%

Kennedy's win in Ohio is overshadowed by Udall's win in Indiana.

Republicans:
Scranton: 51%
Baker: 48%
Others: 1%

Scranton's small victory is little consolation for his large loss in Indiana.

May 4, 1972

The Tennesse primary is held today:

Democrats:
Wallace: 41%
Kennedy: 36%
Udall: 22%
Others: 1%

Nearly defeating Wallace is a huge feat for Kennedy and gives him needed momentum.

Republicans:
Baker: 81%
Scranton: 14%
Others: 5%

Baker's huge win in his home state gives the momentum for upcoming primaries.

May 6:

North Carolina Results:

Democrats:
Wallace: 46%
Kennedy: 42%
Udall: 10%
Others: 2%

Udall's campaign is failing to win over minorities or conservatives in the party.  Kennedy's again near defeat of Wallace surprises many.

Republicans:
Baker: 62%
Scranton: 37%
Others: 1%

Baker makes another strong shwoing in another Southern primary.

May 9, 1972

Nebraska Primary Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 53%
Udall: 33%
Wallace: 11%
Others: 3%

Udall's poor showing does not bode well for the future of his campaign.  He must be able to win West Virginia to show he is viable.

Republicans:
Baker: 55%
Scranton: 41%
Others: 4%

Baker's big win here puts him further ahead of Scranton nationally.

West Virginia:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 40%
Udall: 35%
Wallace: 24%
Others: 1%

Republicans:
Baker: 62%
Scranton: 35%
Others: 3%

Ted follows his eldest brother in winning the West Virginia primary, but Udall's fairly strong showing allows him to stay in the race.

May 16, 1972

The Maryland and Michigan primaries are held today.  Although Wallace hoped to be successful in both primaries early in his campaign, he nows sees that his campaign will not be able to break out of the South.

Maryland:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 45%
Wallace: 27%
Udall: 25%
Others: 3%

Udall's poor showing is expected here.

Republicans:
Baker: 49%
Scranton: 47%
Others: 4%

Scranton needed a win here to revive his campaign.  Scranton essentially drops out of the race after this primary.

Michigan:

Democrats:
Udall: 43%
Kennedy: 35%
Wallace: 18%
Others: 4%

Udall's eight point victory here is a shock to all and holds him in the race.

Republicans:
Baker: 61%
Scranton: 36%
Others: 3%

Baker's win here seals the nomination for him.

From now on, I will only be reporting Democrat primary results.
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2007, 07:33:22 pm »
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May 23, 1972

The Oregon and and Rhode Island primaries are held today:

Rhode Island:
Kennedy: 71%
Udall: 27%
Others: 2%

Kennedy's big win is not unexpected.

Oregon:
Udall: 51%
Kennedy: 48%
Others: 1%

Just as happened to his brother, Kennedy loses the Oregon primary.  Wallace did not enter either of these primaries.

June 6, 1972

South Dakota:
Kennedy: 58%
Udall: 36%
Wallace: 6%

New Mexico:
Udall: 46%
Kennedy: 43%
Wallace: 11%

New Jersey:
Kennedy: 53%
Udall: 43%
Wallace: 4%

The final primary of the day was California.  Udall needed a win here to continue his campaign.

California:
Kennedy: 54%
Udall: 39%
Wallace: 7%

With his poor showing here, Udall drops out of the race and endorses Kennedy.

Here is a final map of the primaries/caucuses/state conventions for the Democrats:


Kennedy: 35 states
Wallace: 9 states
Udall: 7 states

Here is a final map of the primaries/caucuses/state conventions for the Republicans:


Baker: 39 states
Scranton: 11 states
Reagan: 1 state
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2007, 08:40:04 pm »
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The Democratic convention in Miami produces few surprises.

Although Udall withdrew from the primaries and stopped campaigning, he did not release his delegates.  However, on the first ballot, Kennedy is renominated with the following vote (after the 1968 convention fiasco, which included too many delegates overcrowding the convention hall, Democrats decided to cut the total down to 1000 delegates, like the Republicans):

Kennedy: 779
Wallace: 124
Udall: 81
Others: 16

Many call on Kennedy to replace McGovern with Udall.  There are rumours that McGovern is connected to the Defense Department scandal.  Although McGovern has a slightly larger problem with renomination, he still wins overwhelmingly on the first ballot:

McGovern: 617
Udall: 225
Bayh: 77
Wallace: 64
Others: 17

The Republican Convention (also in Miami) is much more chaotic.  Going into the convention, most expect Baker to clinch the nomination on the first ballot with about 750 votes.  However, two days before the convention begins, drafts start for other candidates.  The biggest draft is for Reagan (who said he might accept a draft).  Another large draft is for Richard Nixon.  With so little emphasis placed on the primaries in the Republican nomination, Baker could be stopped on the first ballot.

The first ballot is as follows:
Baker: 411
Scranton: 289
Reagan: 222
Nixon: 45
Rockefeller: 21
Others: 12

On the second ballot, Baker gains little ground, though Scranton loses a lot:
Baker: 423
Reagan: 274
Sranton: 184
Nixon: 99
Others: 20

Nixon renounces any draft after this ballot.  The third ballot:
Baker: 478
Reagan: 401
Scranton: 114
Others: 7

In the interest of party unity and showing his personal preference, Scranton drops out after this ballot and encourages all his delegates to vote for Baker.  On the fourth ballot, Baker wins:
Baker: 602
Reagan: 389
Others: 9

Although it took him four ballot, Baker was finally able to capture the nomination.  Now came the choice of picking a Vice President.  Some names mentioned are Rockefeller, Scranton, and even Reagan.  But Baker sees all these men as representing the past of the Republican party.  In order to combat Kennedy's youth and popularity, he decides to pick someone who is from the more moderate, anti-Vietnam wing of the party.  For this he turns to Senator Charles H. Percy of Illinois (who ran as a favorite son in 1968).  Percy, who is 53 years old, accepts.  Conservatives attempt to put up Strom Thurmond to oppose him, but it fails.  Here is the first ballot, on which Percy is nominated:

Percy: 890
Thurmond: 78
Others: 32

Before the Republican convention, most expected Baker to come out of the convention leading Kennedy by at least 5% because Baker actually had an easier time in the primaries.  However, the Reagan draft disrupted this.  Here is the first Gallup poll out of the convention:
Kennedy/McGovern: 44%
Baker/Percy: 41%
Others/Undecided: 15%

And Kennedy's approval rating:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 47%

With Kennedy's low approval rating, Baker knows that he can go on the offenseive and pick some of those undecided voters.

Baker launches his criticism of Kennedy on Defense affairs, citing the sloppy pullout out of South Vietnam (which is about to fall to the North) and the scandal in the Defense Department.  These attacks work, and by early October, the polls show this:
Baker/Percy: 47%
Kennedy/McGovern: 42%
Other/Undecided: 11%

Many analysts think that if Saigon can be spared until after the election, Kennedy may just be able to hold onto victory.  Kennedy tells his advisors in S. Vietnam to tell the South Vietnamese government to hold Saigon at all costs.  The S. Vietnamese government cooperates and transfers most of its resources to defending Saigon.

Meanwhile, Kennedy and Baker agree to a single debate.  In the debate, Kennedy scores huge victories on domestic policy.  He highlights his ability to work with Republicans in the Senate and compromise on Great Society extension legislation.  He also criticizes Baker for not really choosing a side on Vietnam.  He highlights the split in the Republican ticket on Vietnam policy.  On foreign policy, the debate is seen as a tie.

Here is a poll following the debate:

Who won the debate?
Kennedy: 68%
Baker: 32%

Kennedy/McGovern: 48%
Baker/Percy: 47%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Kennedy now ties Baker in the polls.

Up until one week before election, it seems as though the election could any way.  However, four days before election day, a reporter asks Percy his position on Vietnam.  Percy replies, "We never should've been there in the first place.  It's all John Kennedy's fault for beginning the escalation.  Vietnam was the wrong war, in the wrong place, at the wrong time."

This remark is not only seen as offensive to the memory of JFK in the public's eyes, but also inconsistent with Baker's position on Vietnam.  By election day, Kennedy is leading 52-48 in the polls.

When the results come in, Kennedy's margin of victory shocks the nation.  He wins by 10 points, winning even such conservative states as Arizona and Texas.  Because McGovern is on the ticket, Kennedy is even able to get over 60% in South Dakota.  The results:


Kennedy/McGovern: 42,380,461 (54.51%), 403 electoral votes
Baker/Percy: 35,062,339 (45.10%), 135 electoral votes
Others: 297,553 (0.38%), 0 electoral votes
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« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2007, 08:46:47 pm »
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As a side note, 11 days after the election, Saigon falls and all Americans are evacuated out of Vietnam, however many analysts say Kennedy probably would have won anyway.

Here are the House and Senate elections:

Senate:
Republicans: 54 (+3)
Democrats: 44 (-3)
Conservatives: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)
Independents: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)

With caucusing:
Republicans: 56
Democrats: 44

Democrats now seem like a permanent minority in the chamber.  Republicans are able to pick a number of seats in the South.  Also, liberal dissatisfaction with Kennedy causes some Democrats to abandon his Senate candidates at the polls.

House
Democrats: 217 (-3)
Republicans: 217 (+5)
Independents: 1 (-2) (Caucuses with the Democrats)

Only one "peace Democrat" remains in the House as an Indepedent.  However, neither party has a majority in the House.  However, with caucusing, the Democrats have the smallest majority in history:
Democrats: 218
Republicans: 217
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« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2007, 01:05:21 pm »
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In October of 1974, Vice President George McGovern resigns.  Kennedy, who has moved considerably to the right to work with Republicans in the Senate, is now hated by McGovern.  McGovern is in such disagreement with Kennedy over foreign policy issues, that McGovern resigns.

This is a huge blow for the Democrats, who were already struggling to get their agenda through Congress.

In the 1974 midterm elections, Democrats lose even more seats.  After 14 years of Democratic rule in the White House, Americans are simply tired of the Democrats.

The Senate:

Senate:
Republicans: 56 (+2)
Democrats: 42 (-2)
Conservatives: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)
Independents: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)

With caucusing:
Republicans: 58
Democrats: 42

House:
Republicans: 225 (+8)
Democrats: 210 (-7)
Independents: 0 (-1)

The Republicans have taken control of the House for the first time in decades.

Kennedy now has the task of appointing a Vice President that will meet the approval of the Republican Congress.  Republican leadership has specifically shown that they will not except a liberal like Mo Udall, who was one of Kennedy's top choices to ensure party unity.  Furthermore, Republians are likely to reject any well-known Democrat who could lead the Democrats to victory in 1976.

With this in mind, Kennedy decides to choose a relatively unknown candidate: Governor David H. Pryor of Arkansas.  Pryor, who is somewhat liberal for the Southern wing of the party, was elected Governor in 1974.  He served in the AR House from 1960-1966 and the US House from 1966-1973.  Pryor is relatively unknown outside Arkansas, but is respected by his colleagues in the House.

One month after Kennedy nominates him December, the new Congress approves him with the following vote:

Senate:
Approve: 88
Reject: 12

House:
Approve: 331
Reject: 104
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« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2007, 11:09:55 am »
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Please continue. Interesting to date. Especially the 1968 election- Wallace getting more EVs than the Republicans! Tongue
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« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2007, 01:26:08 pm »
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1976 Election

As the 1976 election approaches, it will prove to be one of the most wide open elections in US history.

For the Democrats, many doubt whether Vice President Pryor will even run.  Many believe he is too inexperienced and would rather run for Senate from Arkansas.  Kennedy, by compromising and working with Republicans, was able to hold the two ends of the party together, though just barely.  However, liberals and conservatives have already rallied behind their respective candidates.  Liberals are united behind Representative Mo Udall, the man who challenged Kennedy in 1972.  Meanwhile, conservatives have chosen former Texas Governor and current Secretary of the Treasury John Connally as their standard bearer.  Connally, who nearly switched parties in 1973, decided to stay with the Democrats to lead their cause.  Other Democrats who have entered the nomination are Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson of Washington, Frank Church, Adlai Stevenson, and Jerry Brown.

(I will do a different post about the entire Republican nomination)

In the Iowa caucus on February 24th, many of the minor candidates make good showing, which hurts both Connally and Udall, though Udall pulls through a tiny victory:

Udall: 19%
Connally: 18%
Jackson: 14%
Church: 14%
Brown: 9%
Stevenson: 3%
Uncommitted: 18%
Others: 5%

Not one candidate drops out after this caucus, although Stevenson may decide to run as a favorite son.

In New Hampshire, a similar situation occurs, with Udall again winning, though with a very small percentage of the vote:
Udall: 24%
Connally: 20%
Brown: 12%
Jackson: 11%
Church: 11%
Stevenson: 2%
Uncommitted: 11%
Others: 9%

Stevenson drops out after this primary, though he announces he will run in the Illinois primary.

On March 2, Massachusetts and Vermont have their primaries.  These early primaries in Northern states help Udall, though Connally knows that once the Southern primaries come he will do much better:

Massachusetts:
Udall: 38%
Jackson: 24%
Connally: 23%
Brown: 8%
Church: 3%
Others: 4%

Vermont:
Udall: 31%
Connally: 19%
Brown: 18%
Church: 15%
Jackson: 10%
Others: 7%

In Florida (March 9th), Connally wins easily, with the other candidates not even campaigning there:
Connally: 63%
Udall: 12%
Jackson: 8%
Wallace (Write-in): 7%
Brown: 5%
Church: 2%
Others: 3%

In Illinois, held on March 16th, the liberal vote is split between Stevenson is in the primary as a favorite son.  This actually enables Connally to pull an upset and win the nomination:
Connally: 32%
Stevenson: 28%
Udall: 25%
Jackson: 6%
Brown: 4%
Church: 1%
Others: 4%

Many expect Church to withdraw, but he simply decides to restrict his campaigning to primaries in the Mountain West, where his strength is.

North Carolina (March 23rd) is another easy win for Connally:
Connally: 65%
Udall: 24%
Jackson: 5%
Brown: 4%
Others: 2%

With less than half of a percent, Church decides to drop out altogether.  He makes a surprise endorsement of Jackson mostly to oppose the two extremes of the party.

In Wisconsin, Udall finally wins, though Jackson does much better than expected:
Udall: 35%
Connally: 31%
Jackson: 21%
Brown: 8%
Others: 5%

Jerry Brown drops out after Wisconsin and also endorses Jackson.  Jackson is beginning to poll much higher nationally, but most analysts say it is too late to win enough delegates for the nomination.  He is seen as a conservative, non-Southern alternative to Udall.

In Pennsylvania, Connally wins, but it is essentially a three way race:
Connally: 34%
Udall: 32%
Jackson: 32%
Others: 2%

On May 4, DC, Georgia, and Indiana all hold their primaries, with each of the candidates winning one:

DC:
Udall: 66%
Jackson: 19%
Connally: 11%
Others: 4%

Georgia:
Connally: 70%
Jackson: 21%
Udall: 8%
Others: 1%

Indiana:
Jackson: 55%
Udall: 24%
Connally: 18%
Others: 3%

The rest of the  campaign is split pretty much evently between the three candidates.  Although Jackson is discounted as a major candidate for a while, close victories in New York and California ensure him first tier status.  Here is a final map of the primaries:


Jackson: 14 states
Connally: 16 states
Udall: 21 states

Iowa and New Hampshire should be lighter colors.

Going into the convention, this is the tally of delegates, with 1000 total delegates and 501 needed to win (remember, there was no McGovern commission, so superdelegates are still very important):
Udall: 317
Connally: 284
Jackson: 241
Others: 38
Uncommitted: 120
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« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2007, 10:20:37 am »
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The Democratic Convention

Held in New York, the 1976 Democratic convention is seen as the most contested since 1932.  No person is expected to win on the first ballot.

The first ballot is no surprise:
Needed to win: 501
Udall: 355
Connally: 311
Jackson: 254
Others: 80

On the Second ballot, the other candidates disappear, for the most part, which helps Jackson the most:
Udall: 347
Connally: 325
Jackson: 303
Others: 25

However, on the third ballot, votes for other candidates begin to appear as a compromise candidate is now on the minds of the delegates:
Udall: 332
Jackson: 304
Connally: 303
Others: 61

On the fourth ballot, both the left and the right begin to put forward other candidates.  For the left, Frank Church is nominated.  On the right, Lester Maddox is chosen.  The fourth ballot:
Udall: 241
Connally: 234
Jackson: 224
Church: 125
Maddox: 111
Others: 65

By the fifth ballot, liberals and conservatives are split between their two candidates, which enables Jackson to emerge as first:
Jackson: 221
Udall: 179
Connally: 178
Church: 176
Maddox: 170
Others: 76

The sixth ballot is a huge drop for Jackson.  Moderates, who make up most of Jackson's support, are being forced to choose sides:
Udall: 191
Connally: 189
Maddox: 188
Jackson: 180
Church: 167
Others: 85

After this ballot, Jackson drops out.  President Kennedy press him to endorse a candidate to give momentum, but he refuses.  His support is about evenly split.  The seventh ballot:
Udall: 241
Connally: 231
Maddox: 215
Church: 211
Others: 102

On the eigth ballot, there is movement towards Church and Maddox:
Maddox: 255
Udall: 237
Church: 235
Connally: 175
Others: 98

However, on the ninth, Udall responds:
Maddox: 251
Udall: 250
Connally: 213
Church: 187
Others: 99

President Kennedy attempts to intervene on behalf of Udall on the tenth ballot, if only to save the party from destroying itself.  However, it is no use.  Udall gets over 300 votes, but is nowhere close to the nomination:
Udall: 314
Connally: 230
Maddox: 217
Church: 124
Others: 115

By the eleventh ballot, the delegates are tired of the same four candidates.  A compromise candidate emerges in the form of Vice President Pryor, who makes some progress:
Udall: 227
Connally: 219
Maddox: 210
Church: 206
Pryor: 104
Others: 34

Pryor, who gets a surprise endorsement from President Kennedy, moves into second by the twelfth ballot:
Udall: 226
Pryor: 220
Maddox: 219
Connally: 219
Church: 98
Others: 18

Church finally drops out.  Most expect him to endorse Udall, which would only heighten the intra-party divide.  Instead, Church makes a surprise endorsement of Pryor, who moves in first on the thirteenth ballot:
Pryor: 352
Connally: 265
Udall: 263
Maddox: 104
Others: 16

Maddox drops out.  He is expected to endorse Connally, but surprisingly also endorses Pryor.  Pryor comes painstakingly close to winning on the 14th ballot:
Pryor: 487
Connally: 261
Udall: 243
Others: 9

Knowing their cause is useless, both Connally and Udall drop out to endorse Pryor.  Pryor wins in a near unanimous vote on the 15th ballot:
Pryor: 912
Others: 88

Finally, after fifteen ballots, the Democrats have nominated a Dark Horse for President.  Vice President Pryor is the Democratic nominee for the 1976 presidential election, to the shock of even himself.

For VP, Pryor has to choose very wisely.  He knows that any liberal or conservative will be opposed by one wing of the party.  He decides to choose an unknown, by asking former Goergia Governor Jimmy Carter to run on the ticket with him.  Carter, who is from the South, is not very well known in the party.  He has a moderate record.  On the first ballot, liberals put up Church and conservatives Maddox to prevent a first ballot victory.

The first ballot:
Carter: 402
Church: 299
Maddox: 264
Others: 35

In the interest of party unity, both Connally and Udall endorse Carter, although they were expected to endorse Maddox and Church, respectively.  Carter claims victory on the second ballot:
Carter: 611
Church: 186
Maddox: 184
Others: 19
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« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2007, 11:00:17 am »
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Wah? All those primaries and none of the primary candidates get the nomination?
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« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2007, 01:12:31 pm »
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Wah? All those primaries and none of the primary candidates get the nomination?

When it's a three way split with all the candidates being rejected by the other two thirds of the party, I think it's possible for a compromise candidate to emerge.
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« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2007, 01:46:26 pm »
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The Republican Nomination

After losing four elections in a row, the Republicans are ready to nominate a candidate who can win.  Republicans know they need someone fairly moderate, but also someone who won't anger the conservative wing of the party.  For this they turn to Texas Senator George H.W. Bush.  Bush is known as a moderate in the party, but he has built good relations with the conservative wing of the party, including leading conservative Ronald Reagan.

Bush enters the Iowa caucus with only token opposition from Illinois Representative John Anderson Illinois Representative Phil Crane.  In Iowa, Bush gets 58% of the vote.  In New Hampshire Bush receives 64%.  He unstoppable with such establishment support.  He ends up winning every primary.

At the Republican convention, this is the first ballot:
George Bush: 934
Phil Crane: 36
John Anderson: 19
Others: 11

For Vice President, Bush nominates another safe choice.  He picks Kansas Senator Bob Dole, who is nominated by acclamation.

In the first post convention poll, Bush is leading:
Bush/Dole: 53%
Pryor/Carter: 41%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Pryor, insteading of focusing on domestic, economic issues which were the strength of the Kennedy administration, attempts to move to the right on social issues to pick up social conservatives.  What Pryor doesn't understand is that most of these conservatives are already voting Republican because Kennedy's liberalism.  Furthermore, this causes Pryor to lose liberals up North, though it is partially upset by the pickup of some conservatives in the South.  Pryor attempts to put back together the New Deal Coalition by focusing his campaigning on the South.  By mid-October, Bush's lead has only increased:

Bush/Dole: 55%
Pryor/Carter: 38%
Other/Undecided: 7%

Pryor attempts to force a debate on Bush, but Bush refuses, as he is leading and a debate could only harm him.

Bush's campaign focuses on uniting America, liberal and conservative.  He is effective in portraying a moderate message that everyone can rally behind.  By election day, Bush is leading 57-43.  America is simply tired of the Democrats.

On election day, Bush is able to sweep every state except DC, Arkansas, and Georgia (though he is able to get 35% in DC).

Here is the map of the election:


Bush/Dole: 48,055,470 votes (58.95%), 517 electoral votes
Pryor/Carter: 32,665,505 votes (40.06%), 21 electoral votes
« Last Edit: April 16, 2007, 03:46:45 pm by True Democrat »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: April 16, 2007, 02:01:51 pm »
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True Democrat let me first say thanks for doing this.  I have thoroughly  enjoyed reading this piece.  This the way Alternative History should be written. As a matter of fact, its honestly the best work I've seen.  If you wrote a book of alternative political history I'd buy it!!!
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« Reply #19 on: April 16, 2007, 03:46:18 pm »
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On Bush's coattails, the Republicans pick up even more seats in the House and Senate:

Senate:
Republicans: 61 (+5)
Democrats: 38 (-4)
Independents: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)

With caucusing:
Republicans: 62
Democrats: 38

Republicans now have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

House:
Republicans: 248 (+23)
Democrats: 187 (-23)
« Last Edit: April 16, 2007, 04:28:27 pm by True Democrat »Logged

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« Reply #20 on: April 16, 2007, 03:47:14 pm »
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Did the numbers needed to over-ride a veto get changed in your timeline?
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« Reply #21 on: April 16, 2007, 04:28:00 pm »
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Did the numbers needed to over-ride a veto get changed in your timeline?

Sorry, I mean to say filibuster proof.  I'll change that now.
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« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2007, 11:39:47 am »
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The first half of Bush's first term is fairly successful.  With Republicans in control of both houses of Congress, Bush has been able to push through a sligthly more consrevative agenda than expected.  While Bush ran as a solid moderate candidate, Republicans attained such large majorities that he was able to be more conservative.  For this, his approval rating was hovering around 50% as of July of 1978:
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 45%

The Democrats are expected to take back the House in the midterm elections.

However, during an event on October 4th, an assassin kills Bush.  The killer, a disgruntled, mentally disturbed voter for Bush in 76, shot Bush from afar with a sniper rifle, killing him instantly.

Vice President Dole is immediately rushed to a secure location and sworn in  as President.  His first approval rating poll shows the following:
Approve: 69%
Disapprove: 12%

However, the Secret Service still has not secured the area.  Only 10 days later in October 14th, President Dole is running in the Washington area, when another assassin, this time a pro-independence Puerto Rican shoots the President.  Dole is rushed to the emergency room and dies three hours later due to multiple gunshot wounds.

The nation is in turmoil.  Dole didn't have nearly enough time to nominate a Vice President, so the nation turns its eyes to the next person in line for the presidency: Speaker of the House Gerald Ford.  Ford, who was became Speaker in 1975, served as Minority Leader for years.  Ford is reluctant to take on the presidency but knows he must serve his nation.  After inspriring speech from the Oval Office, President Ford makes an announcement that he shall not leave the grounds of the White House until the situation is truly secure.  This gives confidence to the people who have three presidents in the last eleven days.  Ford's first approval rating is as follows:
Approve: 81%
Disapprove: 4%

Although Ford doesn't directly say it or campaign for any candidates, the voters now have a sense that if the Democrats take over either part of Congress, then it will only cause further turmoil for the nation.  President Ford and therefore the Republicans are incredibly popular, thus giving the Republicans huge pickups in both Houses:


House:
Republicans: 301 (+53)
Democrats: 134 (-53)

Senate:
Senate:
Republicans: 71 (+10)
Democrats: 29 (-9)
Independents: 0 (-1) (Byrd becomes a Republican)

Republicans get the biggest majority in the Senate since the Democrats in the 30s.
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2007, 12:53:31 pm »
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Very interesting.
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« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2007, 04:39:31 pm »
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Even with a new Republican super-majority, Gerald Ford decides not to turn to the right.  He chooses to stay true to his centrist domestic policy and hawkish foreign policy.  For this, he wins the support of moderates, but loses many conservatives in the party.

The Democrats see conservative support as the only way to win the next presidential election, as Ford has a lock on the centrists.  Wanting to avoid the debacle of the 1976 nomination race, the Democratic establishment decide to turn to a moderate who can keep liberals in the party and pick up conservatives.  Former President Ted Kennedy, still seen as the leader of the party, makes an early endorsement of Georgia Senator Sam Nunn.  Nunn has a lot of experience on national defense and foreign policy.

In the Iowa primary on January 21st, Nunn cleans up against McCarthy (who can't stop running), former Vice President McGovern, and 76 VP candidate Carter (running to the right of Nunn):
Nunn: 44%
McGovern: 17%
Carter: 15%
McCarthy: 10%
Others: 14%

Puerto Rico on February 17th is another huge win for Nunn, though most other candidates avoid the primary altogether:
Nunn: 74%
McCarthy: 11%
Others: 15%

New Hampshire is another huge win for Nunn, though McGovern makes some progress:
Nunn: 38%
McGovern: 27%
McCarthy: 19%
Carter: 7%
Others: 9%

Conservatives have united behind Nunn, so Carter drops out and endorses his fellow Georgian.

Massachusetts and Vermont are held on March 4th, with Nunn having a surprising victory in Massachusetts (due to Kennedy's endorsement):

Vermont:
Nunn: 52%
McGovern: 25%
McCarthy: 17%
Others: 6%

Massachusetts:
Nunn: 35%
McGovern: 33%
McCarthy: 24%
Others: 8%

McGovern, feeling he lost Massachusetts because of divided liberal support, calls for McCarthy to drop out, though he refuses.

On March 11th, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia have primaries, all big wins for Nunn (Nunn is also getting substantial black support):

Alabama:
Nunn: 49%
McGovern: 35%
McCarthy: 9%
Others: 7%

Florida:
Nunn: 53%
McGovern: 28%
McCarthy: 15%
Others: 4%

Georgia:
Nunn: 84%
McCarthy: 9%
McGovern: 6%
Others: 1%

Illinois, on March 18th, is a must win for McGovern for him to stay in the race.  Unfortunately, Nunn cleans up:
Nunn: 45%
McGovern: 31%
McCarthy: 18%
Others: 6%

McGovern agrees that if he can't win New York or Connecticut on March 25th, he'll leave the race:

First, Connecticut is an easy win for Nunn:
Nunn: 55%
McGovern: 23%
McCarthy: 17%
Others: 5%

New York is painstakingly close for McGovern, but McCarthy splits the liberal vote, giving Nunn the win:
Nunn: 39%
McGovern: 39%
McCarthy: 19%
Others: 3%

McGovern drops out, but refuses to endorse Nunn.

After he believes he is assured nomination, Nunn begins to move to the right in order to counter Ford (who Democrats believe to be the likely nominee).  However, McCarthy gains much liberal support and makes a last minute drive for the nomination, winning a few primaries.  However, Nunn simply has too much momentum to lost the nomination.

Here is a final map of the primaries:


Nunn: 45 states
McCarthy: 5 states
McGovern: 1 state

The first ballot at the Democratic convention is an easy win for Nunn, though he has pissed off much of the liberal wing:
Nunn: 889
McCarthy: 54
McGovern: 43
Others: 14

For VP, Nunn is supposed to choose a liberal to unite the party.  McCarthy is one possibility, as McGovern is term limited as VP.  However, Nunn chooses another conservative, 46 year old Alabama Governor Forrst Hood "Fob" James, who was only elected Governor in 1978.
Liberals attempt to put up McCarthy, but this fails on the first ballot, as Kennedy endorses Nunn's choice:
James: 685
McCarthy: 231
Others: 84
Logged

Michael Bloomberg for President.



Lol Winfield.  This quote is from a thread entitled "what do the following proceed to do if they are not nominated?"
Romney - President of Harvard
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