Special Congressional Elections

[SPC]

I'd say no/no

[Adlai Stevenson]

Given the current climate and the fact that the Republican field in GA-10 is very crowded, I would give Nathan Holley a very small chance of making a run-off with a Republican - a chance in itself.  His winning is another question. 

[Mr.Phips]

No/No

Both are equally Republican and Democratic.  I would say that Democrats winning GA-10 is maybe a tad more likely than Republicans winning MA-05, but that is not saying much.

[Adlai Stevenson]

MA-5 voted 57%-41% for John Kerry in 2004 and 57%-36% for Al Gore in 2000.  In 2006, Martin Meehan was re-elected unopposed after winning 67%-33% in 2004. 

GA-10 was renumbered in the most recent Georgia Congressional redistricting, before that it had been the 9th District and voted 72%-27% for Bush in 2004 and 66%-32% for him in 2000.  In 2006, the late Congressman Charlie Norwood was re-elected 67%-33% over Nathan Holley, who is now running in the special election. 

[Mr.Phips]

MA-5 voted 57%-41% for John Kerry in 2004 and 57%-36% for Al Gore in 2000.  In 2006, Martin Meehan was re-elected unopposed after winning 67%-33% in 2004. 

GA-10 was renumbered in the most recent Georgia Congressional redistricting, before that it had been the 9th District and voted 72%-27% for Bush in 2004 and 66%-32% for him in 2000.  In 2006, the late Congressman Charlie Norwood was re-elected 67%-33% over Nathan Holley, who is now running in the special election. 

GA-10 was redrawn in 2005.  The new GA-10 went 65%-35% for Bush in 2004 and 61%-37% for him in 2000.  Both have a similar PVI.

[nclib]

Mr. Phips, do you have the 2004 Pres. results for the other GA districts?

As for the poll question, either district switching parties is very unlikely. Who is running and when are the elections?

[Mr.Phips]

Mr. Phips, do you have the 2004 Pres. results for the other GA districts?

As for the poll question, either district switching parties is very unlikely. Who is running and when are the elections?

I do have the 2004 results for the GA districts if you want them:

Distirct               2004    Bush%/Kerry%

GA-01(Kingston(R))        65%/34%
GA-02(Bishop(D))           51%/48%
GA-03(Westmoreland(R))69%/31%
GA-04(Johnson(D))         30%/69%
GA-05(Lewis(D))             25%/75%
GA-06(Price(R))              68%/31%
GA-07(Linder(R))            70%/30%
GA-08(Marshall(D))        60%/39%
GA-09(Deal(R))              76%/24%
GA-10 Open                   65%/34%
GA-11(Gingrey(R))          73%/27%
GA-12(Barrow(D))          50%/50%
GA-13(Scott(D))              39%/60%

It looks as if GA-07 and GA-06 would be highly competitive if GA-04 and GA-05 respectively gave up about 10%-15% of their Democratic bases.

The GA-10 election will be in June and the MA-05 one will be in September.

[nclib]

GA-11(Gingrey(R))          73%/27%

Wasn't this district 55-45 before redistricting? What happened?

[Mr.Phips]

GA-11(Gingrey(R))          73%/27%

Wasn't this district 55-45 before redistricting? What happened?

They took out the 60% black portion of Cobb county.

[minionofmidas]

The last Democrat to lose in MA-5 was John Kerry.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The last Democrat to lose in MA-5 was John Kerry.

Was that when George McGovern was carrying at the same time?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The last Democrat to lose in MA-5 was John Kerry.

If you want to split hairs, the last Democrat to lose district-wide in MA-5 was probably Shannon O'Brien back in 2002.

[minionofmidas]

The last Democrat to lose in MA-5 was John Kerry.

Was that when George McGovern was carrying at the same time?

Yes. Of course, back then the district had been represented by Republicans since... well going by numbers since the 1890s, but back then it wasn't yet roughly where it is now, so basically it had simply always been Republican. Right through the New Deal.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The last Democrat to lose in MA-5 was John Kerry.

If you want to split hairs, the last Democrat to lose district-wide in MA-5 was probably Shannon O'Brien back in 2002.

I finally got around to calculating this:

Romney 55.23%
O'Brien 39.10%
Other 5.67%

Not that this means anything really.

[Mr.Phips]

The last Democrat to lose in MA-5 was John Kerry.

If you want to split hairs, the last Democrat to lose district-wide in MA-5 was probably Shannon O'Brien back in 2002.

It means very little.  For instance, Brad Henry got nearly 70% of the vote in OK-04, but does it mean that Dems have a shot there?  No.

I finally got around to calculating this:

Romney 55.23%
O'Brien 39.10%
Other 5.67%

Not that this means anything really.