VA-GOV 2025: Spanberger running

[brucejoel99]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....

Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

https://twitter.com/LevarStoney/status/1782726455056568581

Called it. He's not going to be uncontested though:

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1782732894198227451

Also an endorsement-switch from Stoney to Rouse:

https://twitter.com/AaronRouseVA/status/1782744639298027923https://twitter.com/AaronRouseVA/status/1782744643437781150

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’m surprised Rouse isn’t running for VA-02

[LabourJersey]

I’m surprised Rouse isn’t running for VA-02

Being in the House sounds miserable these days. Being a Lieutenant Governor seems like a good gig - light on responsibilities, sometimes in the limelight, and you're set up in a great position for Governor in 4 years.

[henster]

I’m surprised Rouse isn’t running for VA-02

Being in the House sounds miserable these days. Being a Lieutenant Governor seems like a good gig - light on responsibilities, sometimes in the limelight, and you're set up in a great position for Governor in 4 years.

Plus VA-02 has a lot of turnover in the past decade they've had four different incumbents. Not fun dealing with the misery of the House and then having to work your butt off every cycle to hold the seat. Rouse is rising super fast though but he's taking the smart path unlike some others.

[JMT]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....


Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

Honestly LT Gov is probably a big downgrade for him at least salary wise he makes $125K a year as Mayor and would make $36K as LT Gov. I don't think Stoney is independently wealthy so for him he mind as well go for the top spot or take his chances in the private sector.

I'd have to imagine that the advantage of his presence on the ticket, even if not on the top, is so large that Democratic donors would, erm. resolve any salary-related issues quite easily.

Also, Stoney is term limited and can’t run for reelection as Mayor. So switching to Lieutenant Governor is smart, given that he can’t run for Mayor again and was the clear underdog against Spanberger for Governor. Lt. Gov seems like his best chance to stay in office.

[Steve from Lambeth]

What did our resident pro-life moderator do to deserve being accused of wanting to cut corporation tax?

[Skill and Chance]

What would be the most likely split decision?  I'm guessing Spanberger and Dem LG, but Miyares gets reelected as AG given incumbency and the salience of the crime issue in lean D suburbs?  Alternative would be R's end up nominating someone nutty for LG and lose it in an otherwise R leaning year while Sears and Miyares win?

[SnowLabrador]

Spanberger is just like McAuliffe. She alienates a lot of progressive young voters, possibly just enough to cost her this general election. We would be foolish to nominate her.

[JMT]

What would be the most likely split decision?  I'm guessing Spanberger and Dem LG, but Miyares gets reelected as AG given incumbency and the salience of the crime issue in lean D suburbs?  Alternative would be R's end up nominating someone nutty for LG and lose it in an otherwise R leaning year while Sears and Miyares win?

Yeah I feel like Spanberger for Gov, Dem for Lt Gov, and Miyares reelected as AG is probably the most likely split decision at this point. That result wouldn’t really surprise me.

If Sears loses to Spanberger this cycle and Miyares is reelected, that potentially sets Miyares up nicely for a 2029 run for Governor.

[Duke of York]

Spanberger is just like McAuliffe. She alienates a lot of progressive young voters, possibly just enough to cost her this general election. We would be foolish to nominate her.

who would you like to see run?

[SnowLabrador]

Spanberger is just like McAuliffe. She alienates a lot of progressive young voters, possibly just enough to cost her this general election. We would be foolish to nominate her.

who would you like to see run?

Jennifer Carroll Foy? Danica Roem? Anyone more progressive on Gaza.

[Left Wing]

Spanberger is just like McAuliffe. She alienates a lot of progressive young voters, possibly just enough to cost her this general election. We would be foolish to nominate her.

who would you like to see run?

Jennifer Carroll Foy? Danica Roem? Anyone more progressive on Gaza.

Well, the governor of Virginia can’t bloody well do anything about that, now can they?

[President Johnson]

Spanberger is just like McAuliffe. She alienates a lot of progressive young voters, possibly just enough to cost her this general election. We would be foolish to nominate her.

who would you like to see run?

Jennifer Carroll Foy? Danica Roem? Anyone more progressive on Gaza.

Well, the governor of Virginia can’t bloody well do anything about that, now can they?

Imagine believing foreign policy affects a gubernatorial election. Even the last presidential election in which it played a major role is 20 years back.

[Duke of York]

Spanberger is just like McAuliffe. She alienates a lot of progressive young voters, possibly just enough to cost her this general election. We would be foolish to nominate her.

who would you like to see run?

Jennifer Carroll Foy? Danica Roem? Anyone more progressive on Gaza.

What can the Governor of Virginia do about Gaza? The answer nothing.

[Skill and Chance]

Since there has been some more detailed VA discussion on the presidential board since that Fox poll came out, that reminded me of this thread.

One thing that will be very interesting in 2025 is the VA HoD.  It was expected to be the harder chamber for Dems to win in 2023, but it ended up being the easier one.  It turned out Dems could have tied the HoD and denied an R trifecta even while losing the statewide PV by 3ish.  And while the result was 51D/49R, the map came very close to crashing Dem.  R's just barely held another 5 seats by 1 or 2% margins, some with very bad Dem candidates and with 4 out of the 5 being in clearly Dem-trending suburbs or college towns.  And there's really only one close-ish Dem seat that's seriously trending away (in a plurality black area west of Hampton Roads).  So there's potential for quite a large Dem HoD majority after 2025.

On the other hand, the supposedly nearly safe D state senate map ended up barely holding thanks to the swing in a very Hispanic PWC district near Manassas.  R's also surprisingly broke into the 40's in a bunch of black opportunity seats between Richmond and Hampton Roads and another majority-minority seat in PWC that were supposed to be ultra safe Dem.  If there is ultimately a serious R swing with black and Hispanic voters, Republicans could actually do quite well in the state senate come 2027 with several more years for that to play out.   

[Spectator]

I am shocked that Rouse is running for Lieutenant Governor so fast after just winning his state senate seat. I would have expected him to be the Democrats' frontrunner for VA-02 in 2026 in a Trump midterm, and he'd probably be heavily favored to beat Kiggans, too. Odd.

[Skill and Chance]

I am shocked that Rouse is running for Lieutenant Governor so fast after just winning his state senate seat. I would have expected him to be the Democrats' frontrunner for VA-02 in 2026 in a Trump midterm, and he'd probably be heavily favored to beat Kiggans, too. Odd.

It is odd TBH.  That is also precisely the State Senate seat Dems should not want to have a random off-cycle special election in!

*Though this would mean he already won LG, so they would maintain control through tiebreaking regardless. 

[Duke of York]

Since there has been some more detailed VA discussion on the presidential board since that Fox poll came out, that reminded me of this thread.

One thing that will be very interesting in 2025 is the VA HoD.  It was expected to be the harder chamber for Dems to win in 2023, but it ended up being the easier one.  It turned out Dems could have tied the HoD and denied an R trifecta even while losing the statewide PV by 3ish.  And while the result was 51D/49R, the map came very close to crashing Dem.  R's just barely held another 5 seats by 1 or 2% margins, some with very bad Dem candidates and with 4 out of the 5 being in clearly Dem-trending suburbs or college towns.  And there's really only one close-ish Dem seat that's seriously trending away (in a plurality black area west of Hampton Roads).  So there's potential for quite a large Dem HoD majority after 2025.

On the other hand, the supposedly nearly safe D state senate map ended up barely holding thanks to the swing in a very Hispanic PWC district near Manassas.  R's also surprisingly broke into the 40's in a bunch of black opportunity seats between Richmond and Hampton Roads and another majority-minority seat in PWC that were supposed to be ultra safe Dem.  If there is ultimately a serious R swing with black and Hispanic voters, Republicans could actually do quite well in the state senate come 2027 with several more years for that to play out.   

I think part of that had to with people simply not bothering to vote.

[Spectator]

I am shocked that Rouse is running for Lieutenant Governor so fast after just winning his state senate seat. I would have expected him to be the Democrats' frontrunner for VA-02 in 2026 in a Trump midterm, and he'd probably be heavily favored to beat Kiggans, too. Odd.

It is odd TBH.  That is also precisely the State Senate seat Dems should not want to have a random off-cycle special election in!

*Though this would mean he already won LG, so they would maintain control through tiebreaking regardless. 

His new district got like 10 points bluer than the one he won in the special election, so still should be fine for a Dem hold. I guess LG is a more prominent spot to run statewide from. Maybe he doesn't like the idea of running in a volatile swing district every two years.

[Oryxslayer]

Since there has been some more detailed VA discussion on the presidential board since that Fox poll came out, that reminded me of this thread.

One thing that will be very interesting in 2025 is the VA HoD.  It was expected to be the harder chamber for Dems to win in 2023, but it ended up being the easier one.  It turned out Dems could have tied the HoD and denied an R trifecta even while losing the statewide PV by 3ish.  And while the result was 51D/49R, the map came very close to crashing Dem.  R's just barely held another 5 seats by 1 or 2% margins, some with very bad Dem candidates and with 4 out of the 5 being in clearly Dem-trending suburbs or college towns.  And there's really only one close-ish Dem seat that's seriously trending away (in a plurality black area west of Hampton Roads).  So there's potential for quite a large Dem HoD majority after 2025.

On the other hand, the supposedly nearly safe D state senate map ended up barely holding thanks to the swing in a very Hispanic PWC district near Manassas.  R's also surprisingly broke into the 40's in a bunch of black opportunity seats between Richmond and Hampton Roads and another majority-minority seat in PWC that were supposed to be ultra safe Dem.  If there is ultimately a serious R swing with black and Hispanic voters, Republicans could actually do quite well in the state senate come 2027 with several more years for that to play out.   

Obligatory reminder that the 2020 numbers in PWC on sites like VPAP or DRA are very incorrect. VA counties in 2020 did not allocate mail by precinct, leading it to be evenly distributed. This mattered most in PVC where the contrast between the east and west Dem partisanship is ginormous.


Frankly, I'm surprised people forgot this so soon, given how much this was said by all VA analysts in 2023, in relation to more seats than just PWC.

[Skill and Chance]

Since there has been some more detailed VA discussion on the presidential board since that Fox poll came out, that reminded me of this thread.

One thing that will be very interesting in 2025 is the VA HoD.  It was expected to be the harder chamber for Dems to win in 2023, but it ended up being the easier one.  It turned out Dems could have tied the HoD and denied an R trifecta even while losing the statewide PV by 3ish.  And while the result was 51D/49R, the map came very close to crashing Dem.  R's just barely held another 5 seats by 1 or 2% margins, some with very bad Dem candidates and with 4 out of the 5 being in clearly Dem-trending suburbs or college towns.  And there's really only one close-ish Dem seat that's seriously trending away (in a plurality black area west of Hampton Roads).  So there's potential for quite a large Dem HoD majority after 2025.

On the other hand, the supposedly nearly safe D state senate map ended up barely holding thanks to the swing in a very Hispanic PWC district near Manassas.  R's also surprisingly broke into the 40's in a bunch of black opportunity seats between Richmond and Hampton Roads and another majority-minority seat in PWC that were supposed to be ultra safe Dem.  If there is ultimately a serious R swing with black and Hispanic voters, Republicans could actually do quite well in the state senate come 2027 with several more years for that to play out.   

Obligatory reminder that the 2020 numbers in PWC on sites like VPAP or DRA are very incorrect. VA counties in 2020 did not allocate mail by precinct, leading it to be evenly distributed. This mattered most in PVC where the contrast between the east and west Dem partisanship is ginormous.


Frankly, I'm surprised people forgot this so soon, given how much this was said by all VA analysts in 2023, in relation to more seats than just PWC.

This is true. I understand it wasn't actually Biden +27, but there's no way that seat was anywhere close to the 52D/48R 2023 result in 2020.  Furthermore, the eastern PWC state senate district was also underwhelming for Dems, only 57D/43R in an area that could have been like 75% Biden in 2020 after accounting for the vote allocation issues.

[Oryxslayer]

Since there has been some more detailed VA discussion on the presidential board since that Fox poll came out, that reminded me of this thread.

One thing that will be very interesting in 2025 is the VA HoD.  It was expected to be the harder chamber for Dems to win in 2023, but it ended up being the easier one.  It turned out Dems could have tied the HoD and denied an R trifecta even while losing the statewide PV by 3ish.  And while the result was 51D/49R, the map came very close to crashing Dem.  R's just barely held another 5 seats by 1 or 2% margins, some with very bad Dem candidates and with 4 out of the 5 being in clearly Dem-trending suburbs or college towns.  And there's really only one close-ish Dem seat that's seriously trending away (in a plurality black area west of Hampton Roads).  So there's potential for quite a large Dem HoD majority after 2025.

On the other hand, the supposedly nearly safe D state senate map ended up barely holding thanks to the swing in a very Hispanic PWC district near Manassas.  R's also surprisingly broke into the 40's in a bunch of black opportunity seats between Richmond and Hampton Roads and another majority-minority seat in PWC that were supposed to be ultra safe Dem.  If there is ultimately a serious R swing with black and Hispanic voters, Republicans could actually do quite well in the state senate come 2027 with several more years for that to play out.  

Obligatory reminder that the 2020 numbers in PWC on sites like VPAP or DRA are very incorrect. VA counties in 2020 did not allocate mail by precinct, leading it to be evenly distributed. This mattered most in PVC where the contrast between the east and west Dem partisanship is ginormous.


Frankly, I'm surprised people forgot this so soon, given how much this was said by all VA analysts in 2023, in relation to more seats than just PWC.

This is true. I understand it wasn't actually Biden +27, but there's no way that seat was anywhere close to the 52D/48R 2023 result in 2020.  Furthermore, the eastern PWC state senate district was also underwhelming for Dems, only 57D/43R in an area that could have been like 75% Biden in 2020 after accounting for the vote allocation issues.

Good, you were accounting for that when you made the comment. You can never know when people talk about PWV.

Anyway, the answer to your question is likely just differential turnout. It's not as bad as in CA or TX, cause money is spent to actually get people to know to vote, but having elections in odd years depresses minority turnout. It's one of the reasons why the GOP are still relevant when looking at comparable swing states. And it's been like this for a while, which is why people on these chat rooms constantly wish for Dems to move elections to an even year, even though the politicians are likely too entrenched in the uber-off-cycle system.

The example I always use of this is HD-14. Obama won it in 2008 and lost it by 100 votes or 0.1% in 2012, making it the tightest district in the state that year. But it was de facto conceded to the GOP every time last decade, sometime without even the Dems putting up a candidate. Cause they knew they couldn't topple a entrenched Republican, especially when the African American southside base would not turn out in the necessary numbers.