New Senate Rankings
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Author Topic: New Senate Rankings  (Read 14808 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #50 on: June 08, 2007, 04:42:36 PM »

Franken is not so polarizing nor so disgusting and plagued by scandal as Limbaugh. Moreover, he is not alone in the race and probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. Coleman is nothing safer than Toss-up.

Saying Franken is not as polarizing as Limbaugh is like saying that getting raped is preferrable to getting murdered.  He's still incredibly polarizing, and a terrible candidate for the seat that Coleman automatically has a built in advantage over.

He's 'Hollywood Liberal.'  Bob Corker won a race he shouldn't have by using that label successfully.  It energizes Republicans, and it turns off a lot of conservative Democrats, too.

I concur. I nhink that the Democrats on this board are really overestimating their chances in MN and CO. They'll be in for a surprise when Coleman wins in a near landslide and Schaffer just barely squeaks by.

Coleman won't win with any more than 54% of the vote.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #51 on: June 08, 2007, 05:13:26 PM »

Franken is not so polarizing nor so disgusting and plagued by scandal as Limbaugh. Moreover, he is not alone in the race and probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. Coleman is nothing safer than Toss-up.

Saying Franken is not as polarizing as Limbaugh is like saying that getting raped is preferrable to getting murdered.  He's still incredibly polarizing, and a terrible candidate for the seat that Coleman automatically has a built in advantage over.

He's 'Hollywood Liberal.'  Bob Corker won a race he shouldn't have by using that label successfully.  It energizes Republicans, and it turns off a lot of conservative Democrats, too.

I concur. I nhink that the Democrats on this board are really overestimating their chances in MN and CO. They'll be in for a surprise when Coleman wins in a near landslide and Schaffer just barely squeaks by.

Coleman won't win with any more than 54% of the vote.

Remember the last time that a moderate Republican who was speculated to be in for a run for his money in a blue state was being challenged by two mediocre Democrats? (If not, then it was Arnold Schwarzenegger)
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #52 on: June 08, 2007, 05:24:46 PM »

Franken is not so polarizing nor so disgusting and plagued by scandal as Limbaugh. Moreover, he is not alone in the race and probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. Coleman is nothing safer than Toss-up.

Saying Franken is not as polarizing as Limbaugh is like saying that getting raped is preferrable to getting murdered.  He's still incredibly polarizing, and a terrible candidate for the seat that Coleman automatically has a built in advantage over.

He's 'Hollywood Liberal.'  Bob Corker won a race he shouldn't have by using that label successfully.  It energizes Republicans, and it turns off a lot of conservative Democrats, too.

I concur. I nhink that the Democrats on this board are really overestimating their chances in MN and CO. They'll be in for a surprise when Coleman wins in a near landslide and Schaffer just barely squeaks by.

Coleman won't win with any more than 54% of the vote.

Remember the last time that a moderate Republican who was speculated to be in for a run for his money in a blue state was being challenged by two mediocre Democrats? (If not, then it was Arnold Schwarzenegger)

Minnesota is much more partisan than California.  There is a pretty solid trading range between 55% and 45% that both parties usually don't go above or fall below in Minnesota.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #53 on: June 13, 2007, 05:07:26 AM »

My updated 2008 US Senate Prediction:



Net Gain: D+3
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #54 on: June 23, 2007, 01:25:49 PM »

update:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
none

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine


Graphic Representation:



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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #55 on: July 11, 2007, 04:20:57 PM »

Recent events have forced me to update this:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
Arkansas
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma

Likely GOP
South Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
Nebraska
Texas
North Carolina
Oregon

Lean GOP
Virginia
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine


Graphic Representation:

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7,052,770
Harry
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« Reply #56 on: July 11, 2007, 06:33:11 PM »

I guess it's customary to assume Cochran is running again until he says definitely otherwise, and therefore Mississippi must remain Strong R, but I still get grumpy when I see it on lists in that category.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #57 on: July 11, 2007, 06:35:32 PM »

I frankly doubt it would be a tossup or even Lean R even if he wasn't running.
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Harry
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« Reply #58 on: July 11, 2007, 10:17:56 PM »

I frankly doubt it would be a tossup or even Lean R even if he wasn't running.
It would be Lean R right now in a Pickering vs. Moore race, and would probably move into Tossup as Election Day neared.
You may remember the Robert Novak article in early 2006 that said Trent Lott better not retire because Mike Moore would win the seat if he did, which is most likely why Lott even ran again in '06.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #59 on: July 12, 2007, 07:04:42 PM »

I doubt S. Collins' seat is going to be a tossup, Tom Allen is a good fundraiser but her approvals are skyrocketing. According to approvals CO<NH<MN<OR<VA are the ones more competetive. Susan Collins will win 55% of the vote.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #60 on: July 12, 2007, 07:11:37 PM »

I doubt S. Collins' seat is going to be a tossup, Tom Allen is a good fundraiser but her approvals are skyrocketing. According to approvals CO<NH<MN<OR<VA are the ones more competetive. Susan Collins will win 55% of the vote.

Tom Allen is also really popular. That neutralizes the effect.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #61 on: July 12, 2007, 07:25:54 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2007, 07:29:11 PM by Quincy »

He trailing by 20 pts. He isn't the frontrunner, but he can make it close at the end.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #62 on: July 12, 2007, 07:49:21 PM »

He trailing by 20 pts. He isn't the frontrunner, but he can make it close at the end.

If I recall, Tester was trailing Burns by double digits as well during the early campaign.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #63 on: July 12, 2007, 07:57:26 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2007, 08:03:52 PM by Quincy »

Two issues that sets candidates apart are Iraq and Stem cell research. Although S. Collins isn't there yet on Iraq, she gave a speech in May clearly setting herself apart from the President on Iraq in his handling on Iraq. As for stem cell research, S. Collins championed that right, that issue will not and cannot be used against her. Making her the slight favorite in this race in my view.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #64 on: July 13, 2007, 04:44:25 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2007, 05:01:41 AM by Quincy »

If the Dems put the VA/Webb senate race inton play last time, they can certainly make a race out of this one at the end. But they would have to get a large turnout to flip this race equal to 2006 because of Collins moderate positions. But they will have to do it as the underdog in this race.
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opebo
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« Reply #65 on: July 13, 2007, 06:06:06 AM »


I think more like this verily:

Safe
New Jersey

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Colorado
New Hampshire

Toss-up
Minnesota
Virginia (without John Warner)

Lean GOP
North Carolina
Maine
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #66 on: July 13, 2007, 06:07:43 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2007, 06:30:50 AM by Quincy »

Likely Dem
SD

Lean Dem
CO
NH
LA

Tossup
MN

Lean GOP
VA (Tom Davis is slight favorite in this race regardless of who runs)
OR

Likely GOP
ME
NC
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #67 on: August 28, 2007, 09:25:16 PM »
« Edited: August 29, 2007, 11:16:29 AM by Lt. Gov. South Park Conservative »

The GOP is really in a crappy position coming into 2008:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
Arkansas
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas

Likely GOP
Idaho
South Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
Nebraska
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Virginia
Minnesota
Maine

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado

Graphic Representation:


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Harry
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« Reply #68 on: August 28, 2007, 10:02:07 PM »

Now that Cochran is running for reelection, we can keep MS in Safe R from now on Sad
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #69 on: August 28, 2007, 10:33:53 PM »

Also, with Kerrey seeming likely to run and Hagel basically guaranteed to retire, I'd move Nebraska to Lean GOP.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #70 on: August 29, 2007, 12:21:21 AM »

I doubt S. Collins' seat is going to be a tossup, Tom Allen is a good fundraiser but her approvals are skyrocketing. According to approvals CO<NH<MN<OR<VA are the ones more competetive. Susan Collins will win 55% of the vote.

Tom Allen is also really popular. That neutralizes the effect.

Tom Allen is no where near as popular as Susan Collins, and Collins beats him soundly within Allen's own Congressional district.  I think the guy is going to have a lot of trouble moving the needle.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #71 on: August 29, 2007, 11:14:57 AM »

Also, with Kerrey seeming likely to run and Hagel basically guaranteed to retire, I'd move Nebraska to Lean GOP.

I will be moving Nebraska to Tossup when Hagel and Kerrey make it official.
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AndrewTX
AndrewCT
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« Reply #72 on: August 29, 2007, 12:14:17 PM »

I doubt S. Collins' seat is going to be a tossup, Tom Allen is a good fundraiser but her approvals are skyrocketing. According to approvals CO<NH<MN<OR<VA are the ones more competetive. Susan Collins will win 55% of the vote.

Tom Allen is also really popular. That neutralizes the effect.

Tom Allen is no where near as popular as Susan Collins, and Collins beats him soundly within Allen's own Congressional district.  I think the guy is going to have a lot of trouble moving the needle.

Yeah, I agree. I think Allen has made a mistake running after Collins, when he could stay in his safe house seat.

 Can things change in the next year? Sure they can, but at this point, Collins wins with atleast 55%
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #73 on: August 29, 2007, 07:25:33 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2007, 01:20:32 PM by benconstine »

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Virginia
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska
New Mexico

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
Tennessee (if Ford runs, otherwise likely GOP)

Here's a map for it:
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #74 on: August 31, 2007, 05:24:35 AM »

How is West Virginia with those other four?
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