New Senate Rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's my rankings

Safe Democrat:
IL, MA, DE, RI, WV, MI, AR

Likely Democrat:
NJ, IA, MT

Lean Democrat:
SD, NH, CO, VA

Tossup:
LA

Lean GOP:
NE, NC, OR, ME, MN

Likely GOP:
GA, OK, TX, NM, KY, ID

Safe GOP:
WY, WY, KS, AK, TN, MS, AL, SC

[SPC]

Updated:

The GOP is really in a crappy position coming into 2008:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
Arkansas
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas

Likely GOP
Idaho
South Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[Verily]

I only disagree with you on some of the "Likelies". Idaho and South Carolina are Safe Republican, and Arkansas is Safe Democrat.

[Tender Branson]

My current assessment on the 2008 Senate elections:



CO and MN will obviously become close races.

Some states coloured in green may actually not be competetive in the coming year, such as OR, LA, NJ and ME but they have the potential to become so.

VA will be competetive if Mark Warner is running and NE if Hagel resigns and Kerrey gets in, NH if Shaheen runs.

All other seats are fairly safe right now.

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Idaho
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado

Lean Dem
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[MarkWarner08]

Democrats:

Strong Dem

Illinois -- Dick Durbin is the 2nd most powerful Democrat in the Senate and is beloved back home.
Massachusetts -- Moving on...
Delaware -- Will Joe Biden leave early for Beau Biden? Probably not?
Rhode Island -- Most Democratic state in the union.
West Virginia -- WV GOP's bench is pathetic.
Michigan -- Probably Levin's last term.
Arkansas -- Mark Pryor is pious Chrisitian and the son of a popular politician.
Montana -- Who will be the GOP's sacraficial lamb?

Likely Dem

New Jersey --  Steve Rothman, Robert Andrews, and Frank Pallone have a combined over $6 million COH. Isn't it time for NJ Dems to give one of them a shot at this seat.
Iowa -- Steve King/Tom Latham, would you like to be the 5th GOP House memberto lose to Tom Harkin?

Lean Dem

South Dakota --  Unless Johnson makes a major gaffe or fails to tend to the interests of farmers, expect Democrats to hold this seat.

Tossup

Louisiana-- Is Mary Landreiu doomed? Probably, but if Kennedy doesn't run, she will retain her title as the luckiest U.S Senate incumbent.


Republicans:

Strong GOP

Idaho -- A Democrat will win an Idaho Senate seat when pigs fly and....
Wyoming -- John Barasso/ Mike Enzi will stay as America's only all Italian Senate delegation.
Kansas -- Pat Roberts is a less voluble version of John Warner -- this elder statesman is a lock for reelection.
Mississippi -- A Democrat winning a Southern Senate race in a Presidential election year?
Alabama -- A Democrat winning a Southern Senate race in a Presidential election year?
Georgia -- A Democrat winning a Southern Senate race in a Presidential election year?
South Carolina-- A Democrat winning a Southern Senate race in a Presidential election year?

Likely GOP

New Mexico -- Could Domenici stumble on the stump?
Oklahoma --  Jim Inhofe, perhaps the most odious man in the Senate, will likely win reelection.
Tennessee -- Expect Fmr Gov. Ned McWherther's  rich son to make a run
Texas -- Mikal Watts + $15 million + strong Democratic ticket + surge in Hispanic turnout would probably still come short.
Alaska -- Mark Begich could make this race worth watching
Kentucky -- South Dakota '04? Stumbo's no Thune.
North Carolina -- wealthy Democrat could put this race in play

Lean GOP

Oregon -- Smith starts with edge, but climate will likely turn this race into a toss-up.
Maine -- Susan Collins is stronger than Lincoln Chafee and Maine is more Republican than Rhode Island, but the anti-Republican tide could also be higher.
Minnesota -- As others have already said, a generic Democrat will win this race. Sadly, Al Franken's probably the next Ollie North, a fatally flawed candidate who loses in a good year for his party.

Tossup

Virginia -- Warner is the most popular Virginia Democrat since Thomas Jefferson.
Nebraska -- Kerrey vs. Johanns = 50/50 race till election day.
New Hampshire -- If Shaheen doesn't run, Sununu could hang on.
Colorado -- Mark Udall's still a Boulder liberal, but this race is his to win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Updated.

Safe Democrat:
IL, MA, DE, RI, WV, MI, AR

Likely Democrat:
NJ, IA, MT, SD, VA

Lean Democrat:
 NH, CO

Tossup:
LA, NE

Lean GOP:
NC, OR, ME, MN

Likely GOP:
GA, OK, TX, NM, KY, ID

Safe GOP:
WY, WY, KS, AK, TN, MS, AL, SC

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Democrats:
Virginia -- Warner is the most popular Virginia Democrat since Thomas Jefferson.
Nebraska -- Kerrey vs. Johanns = 50/50 race till election day.
New Hampshire -- If Shaheen doesn't run, Sununu could hang on.
Colorado -- Mark Udall's still a Boulder liberal, but this race is his to win.

You forget about Harry F. Byrd Sr.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Just updated:
Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon
Nebraska

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
New Mexico
South Carolina

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
Tennessee
Here's a map:

[MarkWarner08]

Democrats:
Virginia -- Warner is the most popular Virginia Democrat since Thomas Jefferson.
Nebraska -- Kerrey vs. Johanns = 50/50 race till election day.
New Hampshire -- If Shaheen doesn't run, Sununu could hang on.
Colorado -- Mark Udall's still a Boulder liberal, but this race is his to win.

You forget about Harry F. Byrd Sr.

That's a good thought, but his racist past has soured his reputation.  Anyways, when I think VA politics, I think of the man who started it all, Thomas Jefferson.

BTW, nice to see you're on the Warner 08 moniker bandwagon --  originally, there was just me, now, there are three!

[socaldem]

In order from strongest Democratic chances to weakest....

Solid Democratic

RI
IL
MI
DE
MA

(potentially competitive with challengers)

MT
WV
AR
IA
SD (Now that Johnson seems to be back, I don't see any serious GOP challengers emerging).

Likely Dem
VA
NJ

Lean Dem
NH
CO

TOSS UP
NE
LA
OR (SURE OR AND MN HAVEN'T FULLY DEVELOPED YET BUT I EXPECT THAT BY NEXT YEAR BOTH WILL BE OBVIOUS TOSS-UPS)
MN

Lean GOP
ME
NC
KY (I THINK DEMS MAY HAVE A BETTER RECRUIT THAN STUMBO IN THE WINGS).
AK (I'M CONVINCED DEMS WILL GET A DECENT RECRUIT AND STEVENS IS FACING SERIOUS FBI CHALLENGES).

Likely GOP
TX
OK
NM (Is Domenici really running for reelection?)

Solid GOP
KS (ex-Rep. Jim Slattery could make this interesting).
ID
TN
GA
AL
SC
WY2 (BARASSO)
MS
WY1

[HardRCafé]

Illinois -- Dick Durbin is the 2nd most powerful Democrat in the Senate and is beloved back home.

Bit of a stretch.  I've been here since before he won the seat, and I've yet to witness love for him.  He's still safe as milk, though.

[Verily]

Likely D
South Dakota
New Jersey
Virginia

Lean D
Louisiana

Toss-up
New Hampshire
Colorado

Lean R
Maine
Oregon
Minnesota
Nebraska

Likely R
Alaska
New Mexico
North Carolina
Kentucky

Some of these states will become more competitive if possible challengers announce (NH, NE, LA).

[Verily]

Updated and ordered by likelihood of going to said party. (So Virginia is Likely Democrat but slightly less likely than New Jersey, for example.) Nebraska is, at this point, probably the only state that may change rankings before campaigns begin in earnest next spring (to Likely R if Kerrey doesn't run, to Toss-up if Kerrey does run), although if polls continue to tighten in Minnesota I may consider moving it to Toss-up, and if a non-internal shows Udall >10% ahead of Schaffer, I would make Colorado Lean D.

Likely D
South Dakota
New Jersey
Virginia

Lean D
New Hampshire
Louisiana

Toss-up
Colorado

Lean R
Minnesota
Oregon
Maine
Nebraska

Likely R
Alaska
New Mexico
North Carolina
Kentucky

[MarkWarner08]

Illinois -- Dick Durbin is the 2nd most powerful Democrat in the Senate and is beloved back home.

Bit of a stretch.  I've been here since before he won the seat, and I've yet to witness love for him.  He's still safe as milk, though.

You're right, he's not quite beloved, but he's pretty well-respected for his power in the Senate. 
No offense, HardRCafe, but I guessing if the Illinois voters you hang out with are anything like you (Randy Graf sympathizer), then they probably don't like any Democrat not named Zell Miller.

[HardRCafé]

No offense, HardRCafe, but I guessing if the Illinois voters you hang out with are anything like you (Randy Graf sympathizer), then they probably don't like any Democrat not named Zell Miller.

Have I ever said anything about Randy Graf?

The Illinois voters I hang out with are predominantly Green-leaning Independents and Liberal Democrats.

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Idaho
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
Colorado

Lean Dem
New Hampshire
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Idaho
Alaska
Kentucky
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
New Mexico
Colorado
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[/quote]

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Just updated:
Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon
Nebraska
New Mexico

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
South Carolina

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
Tennessee
Idaho
Here's the latest map:

[Tender Branson]

My current rankings:

Net DEM gain of 3 seats (CO, VA and NH) with 3 seats (NM, NE and MN) currently as a toss-up. NE may also be "LEAN GOP" right now. As of now OR, ME and NC are not competetive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Net DEM gain of 3 seats (CO, VA and NH) with 3 seats (NM, NE and MN) currently as a toss-up. NE may also be "LEAN GOP" right now. As of now OR, ME and NC are not competetive.

NE "may also be" Lean GOP—how generous!  Wouldn't Democrats actually need a candidate there for the race to be even remotely competitive?

[HardRCafé]

mister moderate is such a shill for the religious right

[Boris]

Net DEM gain of 3 seats (CO, VA and NH) with 3 seats (NM, NE and MN) currently as a toss-up. NE may also be "LEAN GOP" right now. As of now OR, ME and NC are not competetive.

NE "may also be" Lean GOP—how generous!  Wouldn't Democrats actually need a candidate there for the race to be even remotely competitive?

Even if they did, it still wouldn't be remotely competitive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Net DEM gain of 3 seats (CO, VA and NH) with 3 seats (NM, NE and MN) currently as a toss-up. NE may also be "LEAN GOP" right now. As of now OR, ME and NC are not competetive.

NE "may also be" Lean GOP—how generous!  Wouldn't Democrats actually need a candidate there for the race to be even remotely competitive?

Even if they did, it still wouldn't be remotely competitive.

Granted.  The race was competitive for the brief period of time between which Kerrey looked likely as a candidate and Johanns had not yet announced.

[opebo]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina
Idaho

Likely GOP
Alaska
Kentucky
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
Minnesota
New Mexico
Colorado

Lean Dem
Virginia
New Hampshire