New Senate Rankings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Top Ten Races

1. Virginia (open Republican seat) - Mark Warner currently has a huge lead over all potential challengers. His lead will shrink, to be sure, but he is the odds-on favorite to win this seat.

2. New Hampshire (incumbent: Republican John Sununu) - Sununu may be the Rick Santorum of 2008, with Jeanne Shaheen currently leading by a double-digit margin.

3. Colorado (open Republican seat) - Rep. Tom Udall has a big lead on fundraising, but the extremely conservative nature of the state's rural areas keeps this from being a sure thing.

4. New Mexico (open Republican seat) - Possible primaries for both parties makes this race filled with uncertainty.

5. Minnesota (incumbent: Republican Norm Coleman) - Coleman has seen his lead over Al Franken and Mike Ciresi shrink from 20+ percent to 5, which has to have the freshman Senator sweating.

6. Oregon (incumbent: Republican Gordon Smith) - If Sununu is Rick Santorum, Smith just may be Mike DeWine. It's much too early to tell, though.

7. Maine (incumbent: Republican Susan Collins) - This race has been very quiet, but the state's Democratic trend favors Tom Allen, assuming he can convince voters that he would more accurately represent them.

8. Louisiana (incumbent: Democrat Mary Landrieu) - The only Democrat in any serious trouble this cycle, Mary Landrieu had better hope for a decent downballot Democratic performance in the 2007 legislative elections. Expect Democrat-turned-Republican State Treasurer John N. Kennedy (no relation) to announce on, oh, November 7.

9. Nebraska (open Republican seat) - The potential Bob Kerrey candidacy is the only thing keeping this seat competitive. If he decides to continue playing schoolmaster, this one is as good as gone for the Democrats.

10. Idaho (open Republican seat) - Highly unlikely to flip, but if Larry Craig keeps embarrassing his party up through election day, Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco might have an outside shot. Plus I had to have an even number.

[MarkWarner08]

Just updated:
Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon
Nebraska
New Mexico

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
South Carolina

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
Tennessee
Idaho
Here's the latest map:

Why do you list several Republican incumbents in the "Lean Dem" pile? As of right now, every non-scandal tarred incumbent begins the 2008 campaign with an edge. Even ethically challenged Conrad Burns nearly crawled back from a double digit deficit in the polls.

[CollectiveInterest]

Dems will flip at least five of the following seven.

VA (Warner vacancy)
NH (Sununu)
CO (Allard vacancy)
MN (Coleman)
NM (Domenici vacancy)
ME (Collins)
OR (Smith)

GOP has less than 30% of flipping LA (Landrieu) or South Dakota (Johnson). The may be able to flip NJ (Lautenberg), but it's probably only a 20% chance.

The following GOP seats will be in play. Dems will probably win one of the four following.

NE (Hagel vacancy)
KY (McConnell)
ID (Craig vacancy)
AL (Sessions, may retire)

Andd Dems will probably swipe one of the following.

AK (Stevens will probably retire)
NC (Dole)
TX (Cornyn)
TN (Alexander)
OK (Inhofe)

And don't be surprised if Cochran (MS) or Roberts (KS) announce retirements making those seats competitive.

Overall, Dems will probably gain eight seats. This will allow Dems to kick Lieberman to the curb and make it difficult for the GOP to conduct filibusters. Gaining ten seats is by no means outside the realm of possibility.

The possibility of Dems gaining 60 seats in the Senate will have devastating consequences for Republican fundraising for U.S. House candidates.

The closer the election comes the more pressure will be exerted on GOP donors to send their money to swing states in the presidential election or to vulnerable Senate seats. Combined with the energy, enthusiasm and assumption Dems will control Congress and the executive branch, the money available for GOP candidates for the U.S. House will be all coming from the candidates' fundraising, not the national apparatus.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Just updated:
Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon
Nebraska
New Mexico

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
South Carolina

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
Tennessee
Idaho
Here's the latest map:

Why do you list several Republican incumbents in the "Lean Dem" pile? As of right now, every non-scandal tarred incumbent begins the 2008 campaign with an edge. Even ethically challenged Conrad Burns nearly crawled back from a double digit deficit in the polls.

Those are Democratic states, and of those states, most of them are retirements, so there is no incumbent.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why do you list several Republican incumbents in the "Lean Dem" pile? As of right now, every non-scandal tarred incumbent begins the 2008 campaign with an edge. Even ethically challenged Conrad Burns nearly crawled back from a double digit deficit in the polls.

I'm more interested in why Idaho is merely "Leans Republican."

[HardRCafé]

The following GOP seats will be in play. Dems will probably win one of the four following.

NE (Hagel vacancy)
KY (McConnell)
ID (Craig vacancy)
AL (Sessions, may retire)

Andd Dems will probably swipe one of the following.

AK (Stevens will probably retire)
NC (Dole)
TX (Cornyn)
TN (Alexander)
OK (Inhofe)

Don't forget Guam and Samoa for four more safe Dem seats!

[Tender Branson]

My current prediction:

VA, NH -> Lean DEM

CO, MN, NM -> Tossup

ME, OR, NE, KY, NC -> Safe GOP right now

AK, LA, NJ, SD ->

[Sam Spade]

My current prediction:

VA, NH -> Lean DEM

CO, MN, NM -> Tossup

ME, OR, NE, KY, NC -> Safe GOP right now

AK, LA, NJ, SD ->

Your analysis is reasonable. 

In my own list, I am getting very close (in fact I may do it next time) to putting Maine and Oregon in Likely R.  I simply don't like what I see there for Democrats in numerous ways. 

Nebraska is, at best, Likely R for Dems, even if they get Fahey or Kleeb.  Dole doesn't have an opponent worth mentioning, and McConnell is, I still think, in a strong position for a Prez election year.

If I had to bet money, I'd predict than none of these races are really on the radar come next October.

The LA Republicans will get a strong candidate for the race (probably Kennedy), so that'll be up there before long, but I agree with your other question marks as being the big question marks of this cycle (for now).

Other than that, MN should be lean R, but other than that we agree...

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina
Idaho
North Carolina
Nebraska

Likely GOP
Alaska
Kentucky
Maine

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Mexico
Colorado
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

And my new ranking is


Safe Democrat:
IL, MA, DE, RI, WV, MI, AR, IA, MT, MT, VA

Likely Democrat:
SD, NJ

Lean Democrat:
NH, CO

Tossup:
LA, NM

Lean GOP:
OR, MN, ME

Likely GOP:
TX,  KY, ID, NC, AK

Safe GOP:
OK, GA, WY, WY, KS, TN, MS, AL, SC, NE

[Person Man]

Right now, it looks like if it is a 50-50 election, we will be 52-2-46 and if there is a dem surge, it will be 54-2-44. Right? and if worst comes to worst, we will be 50-2-48.

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi (Cochran)
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina
Idaho
North Carolina
Nebraska

Likely GOP
Mississippi (Lott)
Alaska
Kentucky
Maine

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
Colorado
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
New Mexico

Likely Dem
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Top... Well, Eight Races

(Previous rankings here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=55933.msg1312599#msg1312599)

1. Virginia (open Republican seat) - Virginia '08 looks to be the Battle of the Former Governors: Warner v. Gilmore. The smart money's on Warner.

2. New Hampshire (incumbent: Republican John Sununu) - Sununu may be the Rick Santorum of 2008, with Jeanne Shaheen currently leading by a double-digit margin.

3. New Mexico (open Republican seat) [prev: 4] - Udall entering the race is a major coup for New Mexico Democrats. He's the favorite now.

4. Colorado (open Republican seat) [prev: 3] - Very slight lean to Udall on this one. At worst, he's tied with Schaffer. At best, he's up by a few points.

5. Louisiana (incumbent: Democrat Mary Landrieu) [prev: 8] - Louisiana Republicans didn't win either house of the state legislature, but they still made gains. Mary Landrieu is their only target in 2008 (Charlie Melancon will probably not get a serious challenge, after his 55-40 victory in '06). State Treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to Ted *or* Mark) is in, and is only down by 4 according to nonpartisan polling. If he doesn't screw up, he's got a good chance of winning this seat.

6. Minnesota (incumbent: Republican Norm Coleman) [prev: 5] - Depending on which polls you believe, Coleman is either tied or has a slight lead over Franken and Ciresi.

7. Oregon (incumbent: Republican Gordon Smith) [prev: 6] - Smith is down to a single-digit lead, which is not a good place for an incumbent going into 2008. Still, he's in better shape than Coleman or Sununu.

8. Maine (incumbent: Republican Susan Collins) [prev: 7] - Tom Allen is gaining no traction against Collins. It's a year off, but it's not promising considering Allen represents half of the state in Congress already.

OFF. Nebraska (open Republican seat) [prev: 9] - No Kerrey, no chance.

OFF. Idaho (open Republican seat) [prev: 10] - Who am I kidding?

Projected Pickups: 4 Dem (CO, NH, NM, VA), 1 Rep (LA).

[Adlai Stevenson]

Top... Well, Eight Races

(Previous rankings here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=55933.msg1312599#msg1312599)

1. Virginia (open Republican seat) - Virginia '08 looks to be the Battle of the Former Governors: Warner v. Gilmore. The smart money's on Warner.

2. New Hampshire (incumbent: Republican John Sununu) - Sununu may be the Rick Santorum of 2008, with Jeanne Shaheen currently leading by a double-digit margin.

3. New Mexico (open Republican seat) [prev: 4] - Udall entering the race is a major coup for New Mexico Democrats. He's the favorite now.

4. Colorado (open Republican seat) [prev: 3] - Very slight lean to Udall on this one. At worst, he's tied with Schaffer. At best, he's up by a few points.

5. Louisiana (incumbent: Democrat Mary Landrieu) [prev: 8] - Louisiana Republicans didn't win either house of the state legislature, but they still made gains. Mary Landrieu is their only target in 2008 (Charlie Melancon will probably not get a serious challenge, after his 55-40 victory in '06). State Treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to Ted *or* Mark) is in, and is only down by 4 according to nonpartisan polling. If he doesn't screw up, he's got a good chance of winning this seat.

6. Minnesota (incumbent: Republican Norm Coleman) [prev: 5] - Depending on which polls you believe, Coleman is either tied or has a slight lead over Franken and Ciresi.

7. Oregon (incumbent: Republican Gordon Smith) [prev: 6] - Smith is down to a single-digit lead, which is not a good place for an incumbent going into 2008. Still, he's in better shape than Coleman or Sununu.

8. Maine (incumbent: Republican Susan Collins) [prev: 7] - Tom Allen is gaining no traction against Collins. It's a year off, but it's not promising considering Allen represents half of the state in Congress already.

OFF. Nebraska (open Republican seat) [prev: 9] - No Kerrey, no chance.

OFF. Idaho (open Republican seat) [prev: 10] - Who am I kidding?

Projected Pickups: 4 Dem (CO, NH, NM, VA), 1 Rep (LA).

I more or less agree with your predictions and I definitely agree with your rankings *I think* LOL.