New Senate Rankings

[socaldem]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

Also note
2012 does but 2010 is not so favourable as it occurs six years after the Republican year of 2004.  I do not know who you think the Republicans can target in 2010 - but Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina will all be potential Democratic targets. 

It's too soon to predict 2010 or 2012, it just seems at this point as if the GOP will hold the edge

I'm sorry to disappoint, but there really are hardly any seats for the Republicans to target in 2010 just as in 2008. Maybe Colorado, though Salazar is quite popular, and Illinois if Obama wins the presidency and Blagojevich appoints someone unpopular. Other than those, the Democrats are all overwhelming popular and mostly in blue states.

By contrast, the Democrats stand a good chance at Florida (Martinez), Kentucky (Bunning), Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), North Carolina (Burr), and maybe Ohio (Voinovich).

Not to mention Oklahoma and Kansas where Coburn and Brownback are vulnerable or may retire.  Paging Brad Henry (or Rep. Dan Boren)! Kathy Sebelius (or Rep. Dennis Moore)!

Also, GOP seats in Pennsylvania and Iowa should continue to be on the retirment watch screen because of the health and age of the incumbents.

[socaldem]

Using Jfern's formulation of very strong v. strong...

I will also rate the open seats for SD, NE, VA, NM, and MS in addition to the position of the seats if the incumbents run for reelection.

Democrats:

Very strong D
 DE IL MA MI RI WV

Strong D
IA MT

All of the above races are sure bets for Democrats.

Likely D
NJ AR SD

I'd like to see Lautenberg primaried by a fresh face. 

I think Johnson is still somewhat sketchy on reelection.  If Johnson runs for reelection, I dont think Rounds runs and even if he did, it would lean to Johnson.  If Johnson retires, as I think he may, its a toss-up until we know who the GOP recruit to face Herseth Sandlin will be, though I suspect Rounds is much more likely to run in that scenario.   If Herseth Sandlin is the candidate against a second tier gop opponent, the race is lean/likely D.

Lean D

--

Toss-up
LA (SD)

Louisiana really depends on GOP recruitment.  Also look at how Mitch Landrieu fares either in reelection or in, perhaps a gubernatorial attempt, to see how the Landrieu name is holding up. 


Republicans:

Very strong R
ID WY AK MS SC VA NE KS

Strong R
KY TN NM

Likely R
AL OK TX GA

I think Ron Sparks is running and he seems like a dynamite campaigner who may be able to rekindle some southern populism.  Since Sessions is more loathesome than and more gaffe prone than Allen, he shouldnt be counted out.

Lean R
ME MN (MS) NC (NE) OR (VA)

I don't think M. Warner runs for senate.  He wants governor again.  Thus (VA) leans GOP.  DeFazio isn't going to run in OR so that's not going TU right now.

Tossup
(NM) NH MN

Dems will find a better nominee than Franken and kick Norm to the curb.

Lean D
CO

The GOP had better hope it has a few retentions.

[socaldem]

In order from strongest Democratic chances to weakest....

Solid Democratic

RI
IL
MI
DE
MA

(potentially competitive with challengers)

MT
WV
AR
IA
SD (Now that Johnson seems to be back, I don't see any serious GOP challengers emerging).

Likely Dem
VA
NJ

Lean Dem
NH
CO

TOSS UP
NE
LA
OR (SURE OR AND MN HAVEN'T FULLY DEVELOPED YET BUT I EXPECT THAT BY NEXT YEAR BOTH WILL BE OBVIOUS TOSS-UPS)
MN

Lean GOP
ME
NC
KY (I THINK DEMS MAY HAVE A BETTER RECRUIT THAN STUMBO IN THE WINGS).
AK (I'M CONVINCED DEMS WILL GET A DECENT RECRUIT AND STEVENS IS FACING SERIOUS FBI CHALLENGES).

Likely GOP
TX
OK
NM (Is Domenici really running for reelection?)

Solid GOP
KS (ex-Rep. Jim Slattery could make this interesting).
ID
TN
GA
AL
SC
WY2 (BARASSO)
MS
WY1