New Senate Rankings

[Tender Branson]

A hard guess of what the Senate map will look like after Nov. 4, 2008:

Net gain of 5 seats for the Democrats.

VA includes a run and victory by Mark Warner. Stephanie Herseth will keep Tim Johnson's seat in SD. Mary Landrieu will barely survive, as Bobby Jindal is elected governor of LA in 2007. Earl Blumenauer defeats Gordon Smith in a close Oregon race. Coleman will be reelected. New England continues to trend Democratic. Jeanne Shaheen kicks out John Sununu and Tom Allen wins against Susan Collins. Mark Udall also wins the Colorado Senate seat by about 5%.

[Tender Branson]

My updated 2008 US Senate Prediction:

Net Gain: D+3

[Tender Branson]

My current assessment on the 2008 Senate elections:



CO and MN will obviously become close races.

Some states coloured in green may actually not be competetive in the coming year, such as OR, LA, NJ and ME but they have the potential to become so.

VA will be competetive if Mark Warner is running and NE if Hagel resigns and Kerrey gets in, NH if Shaheen runs.

All other seats are fairly safe right now.

[Tender Branson]

My current rankings:

Net DEM gain of 3 seats (CO, VA and NH) with 3 seats (NM, NE and MN) currently as a toss-up. NE may also be "LEAN GOP" right now. As of now OR, ME and NC are not competetive.

[Tender Branson]

My current prediction:

VA, NH -> Lean DEM

CO, MN, NM -> Tossup

ME, OR, NE, KY, NC -> Safe GOP right now

AK, LA, NJ, SD ->