New Senate Rankings

[Verily]

Changing a few:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa (up)
Montana (up)

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota (up)

Lean Dem
-

Tossup
Louisiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska (up)
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky (down)
New Mexico
North Carolina (up)
Virginia
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
Oregon
Maine

Tossup
Minnesota (down)
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
-

Likely Dem
Colorado (down)

[Verily]

If they weather this storm, than 2010 and 2012 really look to favor Republcians numbers wise

2012 does but 2010 is not so favourable as it occurs six years after the Republican year of 2004.  I do not know who you think the Republicans can target in 2010 - but Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina will all be potential Democratic targets. 

It's too soon to predict 2010 or 2012, it just seems at this point as if the GOP will hold the edge

I'm sorry to disappoint, but there really are hardly any seats for the Republicans to target in 2010 just as in 2008. Maybe Colorado, though Salazar is quite popular, and Illinois if Obama wins the presidency and Blagojevich appoints someone unpopular. Other than those, the Democrats are all overwhelming popular and mostly in blue states.

By contrast, the Democrats stand a good chance at Florida (Martinez), Kentucky (Bunning), Missouri (Bond), New Hampshire (Gregg), North Carolina (Burr), and maybe Ohio (Voinovich).

[Verily]

<snip>

If you're gonna lean Oregon, Virginia, and Minnesota for the GOP then you HAVE to lean Colorado and New Hampshire the same way.  John Warner's not running in VA and that seat is going to the Democrat.  If Peter DeFazio runs in OR then Gordon Smith is toast.

On the other hand you have the incumbent Sununu who will show strongly and then a hippie running for the Dems in Colorado (not exactly a hippie state!).

I would lean VA and OR to the Dems.  NH a toss-up.  MN and CO lean Republican.

I'll just say that you have some interesting ideas on politics and leave it at that.

[Verily]

Without any serious challengers to Landrieu, it is absurd to put her seat at more than Tossup.

[Verily]

<snip>

If you're gonna lean Oregon, Virginia, and Minnesota for the GOP then you HAVE to lean Colorado and New Hampshire the same way.  John Warner's not running in VA and that seat is going to the Democrat.  If Peter DeFazio runs in OR then Gordon Smith is toast.

On the other hand you have the incumbent Sununu who will show strongly and then a hippie running for the Dems in Colorado (not exactly a hippie state!).

I would lean VA and OR to the Dems.  NH a toss-up.  MN and CO lean Republican.

I'll just say that you have some interesting ideas on politics and leave it at that.

Come on!  If you're liberal you're likely have a more hopeful view of things for the Democrats.  And if you're not your view will be more hopeful for the other team.  You're an East Coast liberal--of course you think Udall and the Democrats are in the clear!

Those damn East Coast liberals, they hate your freedoms.

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Myopically is giving yourself a lot of credit. Even rose-tinted lenses would be a lot of credit.

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Franken is not so polarizing nor so disgusting and plagued by scandal as Limbaugh. Moreover, he is not alone in the race and probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. Coleman is nothing safer than Toss-up.


Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota (without Tim Johnson; with him it's safe despite health conditions. South Dakotans won't like anyone campaigning against a sick guy, and, if he retires, Stephanie Herseth is the obvious replacement.)

Lean Dem
Louisiana (I hesitate to put this as a toss-up due to a lack of serious challengers.)
Colorado

Toss-up
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Virginia (without John Warner)

Lean GOP
North Carolina
Maine

Likely GOP
Oregon (Again, lack of challengers)
New Mexico
Virginia (with John Warner)
Oklahoma
Texas


Others are Safe. There's no evidence at all that Montana will be more competitive than Iowa or Arkansas.

[Verily]

Also, with Kerrey seeming likely to run and Hagel basically guaranteed to retire, I'd move Nebraska to Lean GOP.

[Verily]

I only disagree with you on some of the "Likelies". Idaho and South Carolina are Safe Republican, and Arkansas is Safe Democrat.

[Verily]

Likely D
South Dakota
New Jersey
Virginia

Lean D
Louisiana

Toss-up
New Hampshire
Colorado

Lean R
Maine
Oregon
Minnesota
Nebraska

Likely R
Alaska
New Mexico
North Carolina
Kentucky

Some of these states will become more competitive if possible challengers announce (NH, NE, LA).

[Verily]

Updated and ordered by likelihood of going to said party. (So Virginia is Likely Democrat but slightly less likely than New Jersey, for example.) Nebraska is, at this point, probably the only state that may change rankings before campaigns begin in earnest next spring (to Likely R if Kerrey doesn't run, to Toss-up if Kerrey does run), although if polls continue to tighten in Minnesota I may consider moving it to Toss-up, and if a non-internal shows Udall >10% ahead of Schaffer, I would make Colorado Lean D.

Likely D
South Dakota
New Jersey
Virginia

Lean D
New Hampshire
Louisiana

Toss-up
Colorado

Lean R
Minnesota
Oregon
Maine
Nebraska

Likely R
Alaska
New Mexico
North Carolina
Kentucky