New Senate Rankings

[SPC]

as of 4/10/07:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Iowa
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Virginia
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina
Oregon
Maine
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Colorado

[SPC]

Here's a graphical representation of my Senate rankings:

[SPC]

Boy, 2008 doesn't look like a good year for the Republicans. They have to defend 7 seats, with only 2 seats they could possibly gain.

[SPC]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

The GOP will not have the financial capacity or the resources that the Democrats have, but they will definitely want to do more than play a defensive strategy - and Louisiana is the most obvious assault.  Landrieu won in the past by 50% and 52%, in the post-Katrina Louisiana with an unpopular Democratic Party and in a Presidential year - I still think she is clearly vulnerable.  I agree, however, that the Republicans need to find a strong candidate and as of yet have not.

I did some figuring with the 02 numbers.  If you would cut her New Orleans margin in half she still wins, by a few thousand votes.  Also keep in mind how Republican of a year 2002 was.  Louisiana is more GOP now, and it is a Presidential year, but that difference is marginalized a bit when compared with the very Republican year of 2002.

Yes, but Landrieu only wins by 2500 votes, or 0.2%.

[SPC]

Because of recent events, I will update this.
as of 4/16/07:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Maine
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Colorado

[SPC]

<snip>

If you're gonna lean Oregon, Virginia, and Minnesota for the GOP then you HAVE to lean Colorado and New Hampshire the same way.  John Warner's not running in VA and that seat is going to the Democrat.  If Peter DeFazio runs in OR then Gordon Smith is toast.

On the other hand you have the incumbent Sununu who will show strongly and then a hippie running for the Dems in Colorado (not exactly a hippie state!).

I would lean VA and OR to the Dems.  NH a toss-up.  MN and CO lean Republican.

I'll just say that you have some interesting ideas on politics and leave it at that.

Come on!  If you're liberal you're likely have a more hopeful view of things for the Democrats.  And if you're not your view will be more hopeful for the other team.  You're an East Coast liberal--of course you think Udall and the Democrats are in the clear!

I'm a Colorado conservative--maybe I'm looking at things a little myopically---but if you think Udall's got things wrapped up you're in for a big surprise.

And about Minnesota--how in the world do you think Al Franken--of all people--pulls it out?  He's Al Franken!  Rush Limbaugh would lose if he ran in a mostly Republican state.  There's no way Coleman loses unless a more serious Democrat jumps in.

With the only serious Republican challenger out of the race, I think it would be absurd to label this as anything safer than a Tossup.

With MN, that I can agree with you on. But, Mike Ciresi is also running, so don't be too sure to put MN as safe.

With VA, Warner hasn't announced that he wouldn't run, so that is why I originally put this as 'Likely', but M. Warner might run, so that is why it is 'Lean'. I wouldn't put any incumbent as anything more dangerous than a tossup at this stage.

[SPC]

<snip>

If you're gonna lean Oregon, Virginia, and Minnesota for the GOP then you HAVE to lean Colorado and New Hampshire the same way.  John Warner's not running in VA and that seat is going to the Democrat.  If Peter DeFazio runs in OR then Gordon Smith is toast.

On the other hand you have the incumbent Sununu who will show strongly and then a hippie running for the Dems in Colorado (not exactly a hippie state!).

I would lean VA and OR to the Dems.  NH a toss-up.  MN and CO lean Republican.

I'll just say that you have some interesting ideas on politics and leave it at that.

Come on!  If you're liberal you're likely have a more hopeful view of things for the Democrats.  And if you're not your view will be more hopeful for the other team.  You're an East Coast liberal--of course you think Udall and the Democrats are in the clear!

I'm a Colorado conservative--maybe I'm looking at things a little myopically---but if you think Udall's got things wrapped up you're in for a big surprise.

And about Minnesota--how in the world do you think Al Franken--of all people--pulls it out?  He's Al Franken!  Rush Limbaugh would lose if he ran in a mostly Republican state.  There's no way Coleman loses unless a more serious Democrat jumps in.

With the only serious Republican challenger out of the race, I think it would be absurd to label this as anything safer than a Tossup.

With MN, that I can agree with you on. But, Mike Ciresi is also running, so don't be too sure to put MN as safe.

With VA, Warner hasn't announced that he wouldn't run, so that is why I originally put this as 'Likely', but M. Warner might run, so that is why it is 'Lean'. I wouldn't put any incumbent as anything more dangerous than a tossup at this stage.

If you want to toss Colorado up I'd go with that.  Since there is no announced Republican I guess you can put it as toss-up.

Minnesota I just don't know about.  I know it's a helluva liberal state.

Can you please explain Virginia to me?  Is it still a conservative state?  Was it ever?  How would it compare to Colorado?  What will happen in '08?

Minnsesota I agree with you is lean Republican.

Virginia is like this: It is Republican on the national level, but competitive on the local level. The only person who could threaten John Warner is Mark Warner, but if he retires, this will become a tossup, because neither party would have a clear advantage. Tom Davis would probably win though, mainly because I don't think Virginia will want two Democratic senators, but I could be wrong. Virginia hasn't had two Democrats in the Senate since 1972.

[SPC]

Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

as of 5/3/07:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine


Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

update due to Thomas's death:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming #2

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine


Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

update due to Thomas's death:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming #2

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine

I'm surprised I agree with most of that list.  Still, with Collins at a 25 point lead, it's absurd to call Maine a toss-up at this point (I'd have it at Lean GOP).  I'd also have placed Colorado at Lean Dem, and put Virginia in Likely GOP, since the chance of Warner running, I feel, is small enough to justify placement there.  (It's just not competitive otherwise.)

In Maine, there are two very popular figures running. At this point, I really don't trust polling. In Colorado, while the Democrat has the advantage, I have a feeling that the Schaffer campaign will be criticizing Udall for being a liberal, so I think it will be a tossup. Also, if the chance of Warner retiring weren't so huge, I would have this as Likely GOP. That, and the possibility of Mark running even if John runs foir reelection, makes this a Leans GOP.

[SPC]

Franken is not so polarizing nor so disgusting and plagued by scandal as Limbaugh. Moreover, he is not alone in the race and probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. Coleman is nothing safer than Toss-up.

Saying Franken is not as polarizing as Limbaugh is like saying that getting raped is preferrable to getting murdered.  He's still incredibly polarizing, and a terrible candidate for the seat that Coleman automatically has a built in advantage over.

He's 'Hollywood Liberal.'  Bob Corker won a race he shouldn't have by using that label successfully.  It energizes Republicans, and it turns off a lot of conservative Democrats, too.

I concur. I nhink that the Democrats on this board are really overestimating their chances in MN and CO. They'll be in for a surprise when Coleman wins in a near landslide and Schaffer just barely squeaks by.

[SPC]

Franken is not so polarizing nor so disgusting and plagued by scandal as Limbaugh. Moreover, he is not alone in the race and probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. Coleman is nothing safer than Toss-up.

Saying Franken is not as polarizing as Limbaugh is like saying that getting raped is preferrable to getting murdered.  He's still incredibly polarizing, and a terrible candidate for the seat that Coleman automatically has a built in advantage over.

He's 'Hollywood Liberal.'  Bob Corker won a race he shouldn't have by using that label successfully.  It energizes Republicans, and it turns off a lot of conservative Democrats, too.

I concur. I nhink that the Democrats on this board are really overestimating their chances in MN and CO. They'll be in for a surprise when Coleman wins in a near landslide and Schaffer just barely squeaks by.

Coleman won't win with any more than 54% of the vote.

Remember the last time that a moderate Republican who was speculated to be in for a run for his money in a blue state was being challenged by two mediocre Democrats? (If not, then it was Arnold Schwarzenegger)

[SPC]

update:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
none

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine


Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

Recent events have forced me to update this:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
Arkansas
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma

Likely GOP
South Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
Nebraska
Texas
North Carolina
Oregon

Lean GOP
Virginia
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine


Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

I frankly doubt it would be a tossup or even Lean R even if he wasn't running.

[SPC]

I doubt S. Collins' seat is going to be a tossup, Tom Allen is a good fundraiser but her approvals are skyrocketing. According to approvals CO<NH<MN<OR<VA are the ones more competetive. Susan Collins will win 55% of the vote.

Tom Allen is also really popular. That neutralizes the effect.

[SPC]

He trailing by 20 pts. He isn't the frontrunner, but he can make it close at the end.

If I recall, Tester was trailing Burns by double digits as well during the early campaign.

[SPC]

The GOP is really in a crappy position coming into 2008:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
Arkansas
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas

Likely GOP
Idaho
South Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
Nebraska
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Virginia
Minnesota
Maine

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado

Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

Also, with Kerrey seeming likely to run and Hagel basically guaranteed to retire, I'd move Nebraska to Lean GOP.

I will be moving Nebraska to Tossup when Hagel and Kerrey make it official.

[SPC]

Updated:

The GOP is really in a crappy position coming into 2008:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana

Likely Dem
Arkansas
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas

Likely GOP
Idaho
South Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Idaho
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado

Lean Dem
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Idaho
Alaska
Kentucky
New Mexico
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
Colorado

Lean Dem
New Hampshire
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Idaho
Alaska
Kentucky
North Carolina

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Nebraska

Tossup
New Mexico
Colorado
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Virginia

Graphic Representation:

[/quote]

[SPC]

Updated:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
New Jersey
Montana
Arkansas

Likely Dem
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosso)
Kansas
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
South Carolina
Idaho
North Carolina
Nebraska

Likely GOP
Alaska
Kentucky
Maine

Lean GOP
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Mexico
Colorado
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Virginia

Graphic Representation: