New Senate Rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

update due to Thomas's death:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming #2

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine

I'm surprised I agree with most of that list.  Still, with Collins at a 25 point lead, it's absurd to call Maine a toss-up at this point (I'd have it at Lean GOP).  I'd also have placed Colorado at Lean Dem, and put Virginia in Likely GOP, since the chance of Warner running, I feel, is small enough to justify placement there.  (It's just not competitive otherwise.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

...and Mark Warner will wait to run for Governor in 2009.

In the words of Judge Judy, if it makes sense, it must be true.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Franken is not so polarizing nor so disgusting and plagued by scandal as Limbaugh. Moreover, he is not alone in the race and probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. Coleman is nothing safer than Toss-up.

Saying Franken is not as polarizing as Limbaugh is like saying that getting raped is preferrable to getting murdered.  He's still incredibly polarizing, and a terrible candidate for the seat that Coleman automatically has a built in advantage over.

He's 'Hollywood Liberal.'  Bob Corker won a race he shouldn't have by using that label successfully.  It energizes Republicans, and it turns off a lot of conservative Democrats, too.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I doubt S. Collins' seat is going to be a tossup, Tom Allen is a good fundraiser but her approvals are skyrocketing. According to approvals CO<NH<MN<OR<VA are the ones more competetive. Susan Collins will win 55% of the vote.

Tom Allen is also really popular. That neutralizes the effect.

Tom Allen is no where near as popular as Susan Collins, and Collins beats him soundly within Allen's own Congressional district.  I think the guy is going to have a lot of trouble moving the needle.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Net DEM gain of 3 seats (CO, VA and NH) with 3 seats (NM, NE and MN) currently as a toss-up. NE may also be "LEAN GOP" right now. As of now OR, ME and NC are not competetive.

NE "may also be" Lean GOP—how generous!  Wouldn't Democrats actually need a candidate there for the race to be even remotely competitive?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Net DEM gain of 3 seats (CO, VA and NH) with 3 seats (NM, NE and MN) currently as a toss-up. NE may also be "LEAN GOP" right now. As of now OR, ME and NC are not competetive.

NE "may also be" Lean GOP—how generous!  Wouldn't Democrats actually need a candidate there for the race to be even remotely competitive?

Even if they did, it still wouldn't be remotely competitive.

Granted.  The race was competitive for the brief period of time between which Kerrey looked likely as a candidate and Johanns had not yet announced.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why do you list several Republican incumbents in the "Lean Dem" pile? As of right now, every non-scandal tarred incumbent begins the 2008 campaign with an edge. Even ethically challenged Conrad Burns nearly crawled back from a double digit deficit in the polls.

I'm more interested in why Idaho is merely "Leans Republican."