do you consider these states in play?

[Fritz]

New Jersey: no
North Carolina: maybe
Virginia: yes
Washington: no
California: no
Arkansas: yes
Vermont: no
Arizona: yes
Colorado: yes
Maine: no

[AuH2O]

Anyone who thinks Kerry can win Virginia is delusional. Anyone that thinks Virginia is "in play" but Washington and Maine are not is just a dumb Democrat...

Besides, this state crap doesn't matter. If Bush wins big, he'll win all kinds of states that were not "in play." If Bush is caught with an intern, Kerry will win states not currently in play.

National % is what counts, unless it is a less than 1% gap.

[TeePee4Prez]

New Jersey- No
North Carolina- Yes
Virginia- No
Washington- Bush Longshot
California- No
Arkansas- Kerry Longshot
Vermont- No
Arizona- Kerry longshot
Colorado- Kerry longshot
Maine- No

Second that except Washington = NO

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New Jersey - no
North Carolina - yes
Virgina - probably not
Washington - probably not
California - no
Arkansas - yes
Vermont - no
Arizona - probably not
Colorado - probably not
Maine - no

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyone who thinks Kerry can win Virginia is delusional. Anyone that thinks Virginia is "in play" but Washington and Maine are not is just a dumb Democrat...

Besides, this state crap doesn't matter. If Bush wins big, he'll win all kinds of states that were not "in play." If Bush is caught with an intern, Kerry will win states not currently in play.

National % is what counts, unless it is a less than 1% gap.

Not in 1876.

Tilden 50.97% and 184 EV
Hayes 47.95% and 185 EV

[millwx]

ok, but you have basically said all the states are not. To say Arizona isn't but New Jersey is is rather asinine. Same goes for Virginia and NJ.

I agree.  And I certainly didn't argue NJ was "in play", but AZ wasn't.  Ditto VA.  Yes, I know, others have.  Wishful thinking.  Yes, of course, things can change.  The election is still almost 4 months away.  If Bush improves enough NJ could become in play while AZ and VA become wildly out of reach for Kerry.  And vice-versa.  But I'm not in the game of trying to make predictions.  The war in Iraq hasn't gone as predicted.  The economy hasn't improved as predicted (it actually improved BETTER than predicted for several months... though last months job creation, though decent, was vastly under expectations).  We can all prognosticate.  I prefer to look at snapshots.  Yes, things will look somewhat different by election day, but none of us can honestly say we know how things will evolve.  Anyway, yes, as far as the current picture goes... NJ is even less in play than VA or AZ.  That's just a fact (as much "fact" - polls - as we have).  And, BTW, new poll out of WA will push the WA poll avg for Kerry up.  That one looks like a flat-out "no" now.  AR is the only one borderline.

[Akno21]

New Jersey-NO
North Carolina-NO
Virginia-YES
Washington-YES
California-NO
Arkansas-NO
Vermont-NO
Arizona-NO
Colorado-YES
Maine-NO

All the ones in play are barely in play, and Bush/Kerry should still win that state by about 6%.

[khirkhib]

Analysis

West Virginia Toss-UP
http://slate.msn.com/id/2102496/entry/2102497/

Missouri Toss-UP
http://slate.msn.com/id/2101779/

Tennessee Toss-UP
http://slate.msn.com/id/2103314/?GT1=4244

And Liberal Fatigue
http://www.onion.com/news/index.php?issue=4027&n=3

And Supersaulty is thinking, "the tourtise and the hair- by November Democrats are going to be so exhuasted they won't even vote and Bush will sweep the nation."

[Rococo4]

"in play" doesn't mean a pure toss up, just that it could be competetive and get close even if one side has a clear advantage. Even though I am sure Kerry will win Minnesota, I would list it as in play. Just answer yes or no:

New Jersey
North Carolina
Virginia
Washington
California
Arkansas
Vermont
Arizona
Colorado
Maine

NJ - barely
NC - barely
VA - no
WA - no
CA - no
AR - yes
VT - no
AZ - barely
CO - yes
ME - no

[Beet]

New Jersey - abstain
North Carolina - NO
Virginia - NO
Washington - YES
California - NO
Arkansas - NO
Vermont - NO
Arizona - NO
Colorado - NO
Maine - YES

[AuH2O]

I agree 100% with beet.

[??????????]

Analysis

West Virginia Toss-UP
http://slate.msn.com/id/2102496/entry/2102497/

Missouri Toss-UP
http://slate.msn.com/id/2101779/

Tennessee Toss-UP
http://slate.msn.com/id/2103314/?GT1=4244

And Liberal Fatigue
http://www.onion.com/news/index.php?issue=4027&n=3

And Supersaulty is thinking, "the tourtise and the hair- by November Democrats are going to be so exhuasted they won't even vote and Bush will sweep the nation."

Tennessee is far from a tossup anymore. Bush solid.

[© tweed]

Kerry doesn't have a chance in TN!

[ian]

New Jersey- no
North Carolina- yes
Virginia- yes
Washington- yes
California- yes
Arkansas- yes
Vermont- no
Arizona- yes
Colorado- yes
Maine- yes

[??????????]

How in the world is California in play?

[Gustaf]

Yes:

North Carolina

Virginia

Arkansas

Arizona

Maine

Washington

No:

New Jersey

Vermont

California

Colorado

[tinman64]

California is not in play unless there is a Bush landslide.  I live in CA, and in the heart of the conservative central valley, and believe me -- Bush is the most polarizing political figure in this area.

[ijohn57s]

New Jersey-yes
North Carolina-no
Virginia-no
Washington-yes
California-no
Arkansas-no
Vermont-no
Arizona-no
Colorado-no
Maine-yes

[English]

New Jersey- No
North Carolina- No
Virginia- No
Washington- No
California- No
Arkansas- No
Vermont- No
Arizona- Maybe
Colorado- No
Maine- No

2004 I think will be fascinating, this will be the election which shows how far the country is heading towards 2 nations.
Kerry will secure the entire North East, West Coast and Great Lakes (minus IN), Bush will win the rest.