Bremen "state" election (May 13, 2007)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Quick facts:

- The German city-state of Bremen will hold elections on May 13.

- This will be the only regular state election this year.

- Bremen is the German state with both the smallest area and population.

- The state of Bremen consists of two parts: the city of Bremen and the city of Bremerhaven.

- In order to win seats in the state parliament, a party has to pass the 5%-clause in only one of the two parts of the state (for example, in 2003 the FDP received only 4.2% of the state-wide vote, but they managed to get 5.7% in the city of Bremerhaven, which entitled them to a single seat in the state parliament).

- Aside from Hamburg, Bremen has the only remaining state parliament with a four-year term instead of a five-year term.

- Historically, Bremen is THE SPD stronghold. The last time the SPD hasn't been the largest party in the state parliament was after the 1921 election (though the CDU came close in 1995 and the Nazis kept them from power between 1933 and 1945).

- Bremen is also the West German state where the PDS/Left Party is traditionally the strongest (8.4% in the 2005 federal election). In addition, the right-wing extremist DVU is known for being electorally successful in the city of Bremerhaven.

- Since 1995, Bremen is governed by a Grand coalition (SPD+CDU). The current mayor is Jens Böhrnsen (SPD, of course), who has served in this capacity since November 2005.




The results of the 2003 state election:

SPD 42.3% / 40 seats
CDU 29.8% / 29 seats
Greens 12.8% / 12 seats
Schill 4.4 % / 0 seats
FDP 4.2% / 1 seat
DVU 2.3% / 1 seat
PDS 1.7% / 0 seats


City of Bremen only:

SPD 43.3% / 34 seats
CDU 29.4% / 23 seats
Greens 13.5% / 10 seats
Schill 4.3% / 0 seats
FDP 3.9% / 0 seats
PDS 1.8% / 0 seats
DVU 1.4% / 0 seats


City of Bremerhaven only:

SPD 36.9% / 6 seats
CDU 31.8% / 6 seats
Greens 8.9% / 2 seats
DVU 7.1% / 1 seat
FDP 5.7% / 1 seat
Schill 4.8% / 0 seats
PDS 1.1% / 0 seats





Strangely enough, not a single opinion poll has been released in recent months. I will post the first one as soon as it comes out. For those of you, who are capable of reading German I recommend the Wahl-O-Mat's political party test: http://www.wahl-o-mat.de/bremen/main_app.php




What has to be expected of this election or why might it be interesting?

- Political observers assume that it is not out of question that the Left Party will win seats in the state parliament this time... which would be the first time ever that the PDS or Left Party wins seats in a West German state parliament.

- It is unclear whether mayor Böhrnsen will continue the coalition with the CDU. He inherited this Grand coalition from his predecessor and Böhrnsen himself is not seen as a major fan of the CDU.

- Considering that the 1995 and 1999 elections were both relatively close, it is not totally impossible that CDU could become the strongest party for the first time ever in this election.

[minionofmidas]

Note: this is a strict fixed list vote, with Bremen and Bremerhaven representing separate electorates with the no. of seats for each fixed.

A Bremerhaven city assembly will be elected at the same time. The Bremen representatives double as Bremen's city assembly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Note: this is a strict fixed list vote, with Bremen and Bremerhaven representing separate electorates with the no. of seats for each fixed.

A Bremerhaven city assembly will be elected at the same time. The Bremen representatives double as Bremen's city assembly.

Thanks. I wasn't exactly sure anymore how that part worked, so I thought I leave it to you.


And I have added a map for the 2003 election up there.

[Verily]

It seems odd that the SPD forms a coalition with the CDU despite the Red-Green coalition having a majority. Could someone explain why?

[minionofmidas]

Note: this is a strict fixed list vote, with Bremen and Bremerhaven representing separate electorates with the no. of seats for each fixed.

A Bremerhaven city assembly will be elected at the same time. The Bremen representatives double as Bremen's city assembly.

Thanks. I wasn't exactly sure anymore how that part worked, so I thought I leave it to you.

Actually, that's how it used to be, not (quite) how it is, thanks to the fact that EU nationals have the right to vote in local elections but not state elections... including in the city of Bremen. So, technically, the
election of the Bremen city council and the election of the Bremen members of the state assembly are separate elections using the same date, the same lists, the same candidates, the same no of seats, the same seat distribution pattern, the same ballot paper - but a different electorate. Foreigners voting are handed the same ballot, but a different-color envelope to put it in.
And yes, this did actually have an effect in the last elections. The Bremen city assembly actually consisted of the Bremen city MdLs minus one, and one other guy. (A Green - I forget if it's an SPD or a CDU person that's out).

[minionofmidas]

It seems odd that the SPD forms a coalition with the CDU despite the Red-Green coalition having a majority. Could someone explain why?

Before 1995, Bremen had a SPD-Green-FDP government for one term, which didn't go too well. The 95 elections went very bad for the FDP (who failed the threshold), very bad for the SPD (their worst showing in the state ever IIRC), very well for the Greens, plus there was an SPD splitoff to the right which did very well (but then collapsed spectacularly in the next elections). There was a thin SPD-Green majority after that, but lots of people on the SPD's right were not ready for it. State PM Klaus Wedemeier resigned.

The SPD then held a ballot of its members, both as to who should succeed Wedemeier and as to who they should negotiate with first - Greens or CDU. There were two candidates to succeed Wedemeier. One was seen as favoring a Grand Coalition, one as favoring Red-Green, although both said they'd respect the members vote. As it happened, the supposed Red-Green fan, Henning Scherf won by a small margin, but so did a Grand Coalition.
Yeah well, and the Grand Coalition went quite well for the SPD, which recouped its losses, and Scherf developed a very good working relationship with his opposite number in the CDU, Hartmut Schartau, so it simply remained in place throughout the next two elections.
Although the coalition seems pretty worn out by now, and anyways Scherf and Schartau are both gone. Which is why it's possible that the coalition will come to an end soon.

[Kevinstat]

Who are "Schill?"  Was that the party that splintered off the SPD to the right for or sometime before the 1995 election?  They came pretty close to the 5% mark in both cities.  Any party getting 5% of the vote or more in Bremen would get at least 3 seats (5% of 67, the number of seats in the Breman state parliament from Bremen, is 3.35), and I imagine any party getting 5% or more of the vote in Bremerhaven (where Captian Von Trapp was supposed to report to to accept his commission in the German Navy in The Sound of Music, which was recently on ABC Familly) would get 1 seat as it would have 0.8 Hare (total votes / # of seats) quotas and it would be odd for a party to pass the threshold without getting any seats.  So the "Schill" party could conceivably be in the running for four seats (4.8% of the state parliament) and, if the SPD vote held up, could form a coalition with them.  Could someone tell me what the ideology and raison d'etre for "Schill" is (when and how it was formed, and if it is nation- or northwest Germany-wide or if it is limited to the state of Bremen), if they have a chance of passing the 5% barrier in either city, if they ever have, and who they might form a coalition (governing or opposition, in preparation for a future election) with?  This would obviously be affected by who might form a coalition with them and how they might stack up (including the number of seats they have to other) with other potential coalition partners).

[Colin]

I believe Schill means others, as in other parties, but I might be wrong the numbers for Schill look near the normal for the vote of "others" in German polls.

[Jens]

I believe Schill means others, as in other parties, but I might be wrong the numbers for Schill look near the normal for the vote of "others" in German polls.

Ronald Schill is a person. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Schill

He had a brief succes in Hamburg parliament with a likewise spectacular downfall. I believe that SCHILL failed to make the threshold of 5% in Bremen

others is anderen (or something like that. Can't spell in German)

[Colin]

I believe Schill means others, as in other parties, but I might be wrong the numbers for Schill look near the normal for the vote of "others" in German polls.

Ronald Schill is a person. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Schill

He had a brief succes in Hamburg parliament with a likewise spectacular downfall. I believe that SCHILL failed to make the threshold of 5% in Bremen

others is anderen (or something like that. Can't spell in German)

Well thanks for that Jens that clears something up.

[Kevinstat]

I believe Schill means others, as in other parties, but I might be wrong the numbers for Schill look near the normal for the vote of "others" in German polls.

I know Jens has already answered this question, although I will add the address for the Wikipedia article on the original "Schill Party" which expelled Schill in December 2003 (reminds me of the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party being taken over by Lieberman opponents) according to Wikipedia (yeah, I know anyone can edit that site, but I'm hoping these articles are accurate).  I thought I might mention, however, that the numbers for Schill in the original post on this thread were for the last election rather than a poll.  Although 2.6% of voters in the Bremen state election voted for "Others" parties as Wikipedia defined them in the 2003 election Bremen state election according to Wikipedia.

[Jens]

I believe Schill means others, as in other parties, but I might be wrong the numbers for Schill look near the normal for the vote of "others" in German polls.

I know Jens has already answered this question, although I will add the address for the Wikipedia article on the original "Schill Party" which expelled Schill in December 2003 (reminds me of the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party being taken over by Lieberman opponents) according to Wikipedia (yeah, I know anyone can edit that site, but I'm hoping these articles are accurate).  I thought I might mention, however, that the numbers for Schill in the original post on this thread were for the last election rather than a poll.  Although 2.6% of voters in the Bremen state election voted for "Others" parties as Wikipedia defined them in the 2003 election Bremen state election according to Wikipedia.

Note that the election in Bremen was before the CDU-FDP-SCHILL coalition in Hamburg collapsed in the summer of '03

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Schill party isn't relevant anymore... neither in Bremen nor in any other parts of Germany. Just included their results for the sake of completeness, because they did better than FDP, DVU, or PDS last time.

The only relevant players this time around are SPD, CDU, Greens... and maybe the Left Party, FDP, and DVU.


Well, also worth a mentioning is "Bremen muß leben!" (which translates into, and don't laugh, "Bremen must live!"), which more or less took over the role of the Schill party from 2003. "Bremen must live!" is a recently found regionalist/archconservative/right-wing populist/anti-establishment/protest/somewhat insane political party which is also contesting in this election.

The founder and leader of "Bremen must live!" is Joachim Siegerist, who was a member of the CDU until the 80ies, when he left the party just a short time before they would have kicked him out. Siegerist had gained notoriety by campaigning for a release of former Nazi party official and convicted war criminal Rudolf Heß from prison.

After the end of the Cold war he succesfully obtained the Latvian citizenship (his father was Latvian and a member of the Waffen-SS during WWII) and started a short, but spectacular career in politics there. In 1993, he was elected to the parliament of Latvia as a member of the nationalist LNNK. Shortly after, he was kicked out of this party (something that often seems to happen to him) and he started his own one. In the 1995 parliamentary election his new party became the second largest political force in Latvia and apparently his bid for becoming the country's  prime minister just narrowly failed back then.

Well, his Latvian party is long gone now and he's back in Germany to run for the state parliament of Bremen...

[Kevinstat]

I'm glad to see the Engish-speaking world (I've known about the Official Monster Raving Loony Party in the UK for some time) doesn't have a monopoly on gadfly candidates.

[Tender Branson]

This is boring, just as 2008 will be:

Allthough there are 4 State elections in Germany next year (Bavaria, Hamburg, Hessen, Lower Saxony) and 2 in Austria (Tyrol and Lower Austria), in each of the 6 the Conservatives are favored.

The only question will be: Is the ÖVP able to keep the absolute majority in Tyrol and Lower Austria, which are conservative strongholds ?

The same can be applied to Bavaria, where the CSU will somewhere be between 50 and 60%.

In the city-state of Hamburg, contrary to Bremen, the CDU is way ahead of the SPD.

In Hessen, the CDU nearly got 50% in 2003, while the historically strong state SPD got trashed. Recent polls show a narrowing of the race, but the CDU for now has the advantage.

In Lower Saxony the same picture, the SPD got clobbered in 2003 in a SPD heartland and the CDU advantage isn´t gone yet.

So it will be quite a conservative year in 2008, at least in these 6 states.

[minionofmidas]

The same can be applied to Bavaria, where the CSU will somewhere be between 50 and 60%.

Polls have them right around the 50% mark... of course, by the time of the election, Stoiber will be gone, and the result depends on how well that asshole Beckstein settles in and on whether there'll be any major fallout after Seehofer inevitably loses the race for party chair to Erwin Huber. There definitely is a chance for the CSU to lose its absolute majority (mind you, I'm not optimistic - definitely an under 50% chance). They won't defend their current no. of seats, but then the last election went catastrophic for the SPD mostly for turnout differential reasons.

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The Hamburg SPD - just as used to governing as the Bremen one; I think there was a CDU-dominated government for four years in the 50s, but that was it until 2001 - is in catastrophic state.
They picked some relative unknown for state chairman after 2003 (one Mathias Petersen) who has managed to piss off the entire clique of SPD insiders/apparatchiks while making only a very minor, though net positive, impression on Hamburgers at large. He was challenged by his deputy for the nomination as head of the list, and there was a ballot of party members which ended with ballots stolen and both candidates withdrawing (Petersen, who apparently would have won the ballot easily enough, needed a couple days pressuring) and Michael Naumann, editor of Die Zeit and former federal under secretary for the arts, being catapulted in. Petersen remains party chairman. Hilarious.

[quot€]en, the CDU nearly got 50% in 2003, while the historically strong state SPD got trashed. Recent polls show a narrowing of the race, but the CDU for now has the advantage.[/quote]Roland Koch is phenomenally unpopular - phenomenally unpopular for a politician with a more than 50% chance of remaining in office, that is.
His challenger is Andrea Ypsilanti - a woman, pretty far left within the SPD, and quite a mouthful of a name (although she was born a simple Andrea Nöll, daughter of a Rüsselsheim auto worker. Married a Greek, hence the name.) So, two fairly polarizing figures. Should be good for better turnout, at least, which is bad news for the CDU, at least in terms of seat losses (once again, the last result is due to the fact that so many social democrats didn't bother to go and vote.)

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I guess so. I'm not even sure who the SPD will be running. After 2003, defeated state PM Sigmar Gabriel initially stayed on as leader of the opposition, but he's now federal minister of the environment (and doing a darn good job. Definitely my favorite member of the cabinet right now.)

Although I'm not sure if Lower Saxony can be called an "SPD heartland" - recent federal results notwithstanding. These include a large personal vote of Gerhard Schröder's. At the state level, Lower Saxony has had long periods of both SPD and CDU domination.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first poll was released today.


Infratest-dimap (04/26)

SPD: 42%
CDU: 26%
Greens: 14.5 %
Left Party: 5.5 %
FDP: 5%
DVU: 2%
Other parties: 5%

[Verily]

The first poll was released today.


Infratest-dimap (04/26)

SPD: 42%
CDU: 26%
Greens: 14.5 %
Left Party: 5.5 %
FDP: 5%
DVU: 2%
Other parties: 5%

That has to be a disappointing result for the CDU.

I'm surprised that there aren't more defectors to the Greens and/or Die Linke from the SPD in an attempt to force the SPD into a left-wing coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That has to be a disappointing result for the CDU.

I'm surprised that there aren't more defectors to the Greens and/or Die Linke from the SPD in an attempt to force the SPD into a left-wing coalition.

Well, according to this poll the Greens will indeed improve their result. Plus, the SPD and mayor Böhrnsen seem to favour an end of the Grand coalition anyway.

SPD/Left hasn't been really discussed as an option yet and my take is that the SPD isn't very keen to from a government with them. The SPD and the Greens should be able to get enough votes to form a two-party coalition of their own.

But it's just a first opinion poll... let's wait and see.


For comparison, the results of the last opinion poll before the 2003 election and the results of the actual election:

SPD 38% -> 42.3%
CDU 36% -> 29.8%
Greens 12% -> 12.8%
FDP 5% -> 4.2%
Schill 2% -> 4.4%
DVU 2% -> 2.3%
PDS 2% -> 1.7%

[Verily]

That has to be a disappointing result for the CDU.

I'm surprised that there aren't more defectors to the Greens and/or Die Linke from the SPD in an attempt to force the SPD into a left-wing coalition.

Well, according to this poll the Greens will indeed improve their result. Plus, the SPD and mayor Böhrnsen seem to favour an end of the Grand coalition anyway.

SPD/Left hasn't been really discussed as an option yet and my take is that the SPD isn't very keen to from a government with them. SPD and Greens should be able to get enough votes to form a two-party coalition of their own.

Of course, it just seems surprising that more voters are not splitting with the SPD to force a left-wing coalition as happened in the 2005 elections (even though the SPD favored a left-wing coalition then).

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 05/04)

SPD: 40%
CDU: 28%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 6%
Left: 4.5%
DVU: 4%
Other parties: 3.5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Election is today. Up until now, the SPD refused to officially commit itself to a coalition with either the CDU or the Greens (or any other party for that matter).

[Middle-aged Europe]

The polls have closed 45 minutes ago.



ARD projection (6:16 p.m.)
SPD: 37.8% / 32 seats
CDU: 25.2% / 22 seats
Greens: 16.5% / 15 seats
Left: 8.6% / 7 seats
FDP: 5.6% / 5 seats
DVU: 2.5% / 1 seat
BIW: 1.0% / 1 seat

note: BIW stands für "Bürger in Wut" (Citizens in Rage) and is one of those tiny right-wing protest parties.


ZDF projection (6:23 p.m.)
SPD: 37.3% / 33 seats
CDU: 26.4% / 23 seats
Greens: 16.5% / 14 seats
Left: 8.6% / 7 seats
FDP: 5.5% / 5 seats
DVU: 2.4% / 1 seat



Greens and the Left Party are apparently the big winners of this election.

The SPD just announced to hold coalition talks with both the CDU and the Greens (perhaps just a strategic maneuver to squeeze as much as possible out of the Greens during the negotiations?).

[Tender Branson]

According to the Bremen Wahl-O-Mat I should have voted for the Greens. No surprise for me and a good showing by the Bremen Green Party today

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update:

- Apparently, the FDP is barely passing the 5% threshold in the city of Bremen at the moment. If they drop below 5.0% they will only keep their single MP from Bremerhaven (where they definitely passed 5% again).

- Similarly, the BIW dropped to 4.9% in Bremerhaven now, which could mean they won't win a seat after all.

- A few statistics: 16.5% is the best result the Greens ever had in any German state election. The Left Party's result is the best they (or the PDS/WASG) ever had in a West German state election.