Bremen "state" election (May 13, 2007)
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  Bremen "state" election (May 13, 2007)
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Author Topic: Bremen "state" election (May 13, 2007)  (Read 6454 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #25 on: May 13, 2007, 01:43:14 PM »

- A few statistics: 16.5% is the best result the Greens ever had in any German state election.

Arrggh, you beat the Tyrolian Greens by 1% and the Vienna Greens by 1.5% Tongue But the Tyrolian Greens will overtake you in next years state elections Wink
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ag
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« Reply #26 on: May 13, 2007, 03:12:48 PM »

So, the current projection by zdf (21:11):

Bremen

SPD 37.1% 27 seats
CDU 25.7% 19 seats
Green 17.3% 12 seats
Left 8.8% 6 seats
FDP 5.4% 4 seats
DVU 2.3%
Other 3.4%

Bremerhaven

SPD 34.9% 6 seats
CDU 25.2% 4 seats
Green 12% 2 seats
FDP 8.8% 1 seat
Left 6.9% 1 seat
DVU 5.4% 1 seat
BIW 4.9%
Other 1.9%
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freek
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« Reply #27 on: May 13, 2007, 04:39:19 PM »

Update:

- Similarly, the BIW dropped to 4.9% in Bremerhaven now, which could mean they won't win a seat after all.
According to the Radio Bremen website, with all votes counted in Bremerhaven , the BIW received 4.99%. In total, there were 44,335 valid votes in Bremerhaven (and 973 invalid), of which 2,216 for BIW.

http://www.radiobremen.de/stala/internet/javascript/bueg07_bhv/index.html

5% of 44,335 = 2216.75

This means that BIW is 1 vote short of a seat. Grin.
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« Reply #28 on: May 13, 2007, 05:02:42 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2007, 06:37:54 PM by Rock Strongo (aka Lance Uppercut) »

Preliminary official results


State of Bremen
SPD: 36.8% / 33 seats
CDU: 25.7% / 23 seats
Greens: 16.4% / 14 seats
Left: 8.4% / 7 seats
FDP: 6.0% / 5 seats
DVU: 2.7% / 1 seat
Other parties: 4.0% / 0 seats


City of Bremen
SPD: 37.2% / 27 seats
CDU: 25.8% / 19 seats
Greens: 17.3% / 12 seats
Left: 8.7% / 6 seats
FDP: 5.4% / 4 seats
DVU: 2.2% / 0 seats
Other parties: 3.4% / 0 seats


City of Bremerhaven
SPD: 34.9% / 6 seats
CDU: 25.2% / 4 seats
Greens: 12.0% / 2 seats
FDP: 8.8% / 1 seat
Left: 6.9% / 1 seat
DVU: 5.4% / 1 seat
Other parties: 6.8% / 0 seats


Since the BIW has literally missed the 5% threshold by a razor-thin margin (see post above) there will be a recount in Bremerhaven.

What do we learn from the BIW's example? EVERY VOTE COUNTS. Wink
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« Reply #29 on: May 13, 2007, 06:38:30 PM »

Map:

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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #30 on: May 14, 2007, 09:18:41 AM »

Results for the seperately elected city council of Bremerhaven


SPD: 33.6% / 16 seats
CDU: 23.7% / 12 seats
Greens: 12.6% / 6 seats
FDP: 9.6% / 5 seats
Left: 6.1% / 3 seats
DVU: 5.5% / 3 seats
BIW: 5.4% / 3 seats
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Hash
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« Reply #31 on: May 14, 2007, 09:59:46 AM »

Quite impressive gain for Die Linke.PDS and the Greens. DVU is far-right correct?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #32 on: May 14, 2007, 10:18:30 AM »

Quite impressive gain for Die Linke.PDS and the Greens. DVU is far-right correct?
Yes.
BIW is btw the local descendant of Schill, and did not even run in Bremen. Siegerist's party bombed.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #33 on: May 14, 2007, 10:19:09 AM »

Oh, and that one Green Stadtteil in the port area looks weird.
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« Reply #34 on: May 14, 2007, 10:25:03 AM »
« Edited: May 14, 2007, 10:40:57 AM by Rock Strongo (aka Lance Uppercut) »

Oh, and that one Green Stadtteil in the port area looks weird.

That's Werderland.


Votes per party there (not precentages, individual people):

Greens 47
SPD 43
CDU 26
FDP 9
Left 8
Bremen must live 7
REP 3
PBC 1



Still beats the "Stadtbremischer Überseehafen Bremerhaven", where only two of the ten registered voters went to the polls. Both of them voted CDU... giving them a landslide victory of 100%. Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #35 on: May 14, 2007, 10:42:17 AM »

And as Red-Green seems more likely than a continued Grand Coalition, may I present the new leader of the left-wing opposition, Peter Erlanson:



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« Reply #36 on: May 14, 2007, 10:56:16 AM »

And as Red-Green seems more likely than a continued Grand Coalition, may I present the new leader of the left-wing opposition, Peter Erlanson:





a.k.a. Reinhold Messner Wink
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« Reply #37 on: May 20, 2007, 10:34:23 AM »

Update:

The state executive of the SPD has recommended to begin coalition talks with the Greens. The CDU has announced that they aren't available for a coalition anymore.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #38 on: May 23, 2007, 04:14:30 AM »

The same can be applied to Bavaria, where the CSU will somewhere be between 50 and 60%.
Polls have them right around the 50% mark... of course, by the time of the election, Stoiber will be gone, and the result depends on how well that asshole Beckstein settles in and on whether there'll be any major fallout after Seehofer inevitably loses the race for party chair to Erwin Huber. There definitely is a chance for the CSU to lose its absolute majority (mind you, I'm not optimistic - definitely an under 50% chance). They won't defend their current no. of seats, but then the last election went catastrophic for the SPD mostly for turnout differential reasons.

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The Hamburg SPD - just as used to governing as the Bremen one; I think there was a CDU-dominated government for four years in the 50s, but that was it until 2001 - is in catastrophic state.
They picked some relative unknown for state chairman after 2003 (one Mathias Petersen) who has managed to piss off the entire clique of SPD insiders/apparatchiks while making only a very minor, though net positive, impression on Hamburgers at large. He was challenged by his deputy for the nomination as head of the list, and there was a ballot of party members which ended with ballots stolen and both candidates withdrawing (Petersen, who apparently would have won the ballot easily enough, needed a couple days pressuring) and Michael Naumann, editor of Die Zeit and former federal under secretary for the arts, being catapulted in. Petersen remains party chairman. Hilarious.

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Roland Koch is phenomenally unpopular - phenomenally unpopular for a politician with a more than 50% chance of remaining in office, that is. Wink
His challenger is Andrea Ypsilanti - a woman, pretty far left within the SPD, and quite a mouthful of a name (although she was born a simple Andrea Nöll, daughter of a Rüsselsheim auto worker. Married a Greek, hence the name.) So, two fairly polarizing figures. Should be good for better turnout, at least, which is bad news for the CDU, at least in terms of seat losses (once again, the last result is due to the fact that so many social democrats didn't bother to go and vote.)

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I guess so. I'm not even sure who the SPD will be running. After 2003, defeated state PM Sigmar Gabriel initially stayed on as leader of the opposition, but he's now federal minister of the environment (and doing a darn good job. Definitely my favorite member of the cabinet right now.)

Although I'm not sure if Lower Saxony can be called an "SPD heartland" - recent federal results notwithstanding. These include a large personal vote of Gerhard Schröder's. At the state level, Lower Saxony has had long periods of both SPD and CDU domination.

New polls out (difference to last state election results):

Bavaria:

CSU: 56% (-5)
SPD: 17% (-3)
Green: 9% (+1)
FDP: 6% (+3)

Below 5% threshold:

Left-Party: 3% (+3)
Free Voters: 3% (-1)
Others: 6%

Hamburg:

CDU: 41% (-6)
SPD: 29% (-1)
Greens: 16% (+4)
Left-Party: 6% (+6)

Below 5% threshold:

FDP: 4% (+1)
Others: 4%

Hessen:

CDU: 40% (-9)
SPD: 32% (+3)
Greens: 11% (+1)
FDP: 9% (+1)

Below 5% threshold:

Left-Party: 4% (+4)
Others: 4%

Lower Saxony:

CDU: 41% (-7)
SPD: 36% (+3)
Greens: 8% (-)
FDP: 8% (-)

Below 5% threshold:

Left-Party: 4% (+4)
Others: 3%
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« Reply #39 on: May 23, 2007, 08:53:40 AM »

You forgot Saarland, where the Left Party is polled at 13% (full Oskar power!). Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #40 on: May 23, 2007, 09:20:58 AM »

You forgot Saarland, where the Left Party is polled at 13% (full Oskar power!). Wink

Yeah, but they are not voting next year Smiley
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