Bremen "state" election (May 13, 2007)

[minionofmidas]

Note: this is a strict fixed list vote, with Bremen and Bremerhaven representing separate electorates with the no. of seats for each fixed.

A Bremerhaven city assembly will be elected at the same time. The Bremen representatives double as Bremen's city assembly.

[minionofmidas]

Note: this is a strict fixed list vote, with Bremen and Bremerhaven representing separate electorates with the no. of seats for each fixed.

A Bremerhaven city assembly will be elected at the same time. The Bremen representatives double as Bremen's city assembly.

Thanks. I wasn't exactly sure anymore how that part worked, so I thought I leave it to you.

Actually, that's how it used to be, not (quite) how it is, thanks to the fact that EU nationals have the right to vote in local elections but not state elections... including in the city of Bremen. So, technically, the
election of the Bremen city council and the election of the Bremen members of the state assembly are separate elections using the same date, the same lists, the same candidates, the same no of seats, the same seat distribution pattern, the same ballot paper - but a different electorate. Foreigners voting are handed the same ballot, but a different-color envelope to put it in.
And yes, this did actually have an effect in the last elections. The Bremen city assembly actually consisted of the Bremen city MdLs minus one, and one other guy. (A Green - I forget if it's an SPD or a CDU person that's out).

[minionofmidas]

It seems odd that the SPD forms a coalition with the CDU despite the Red-Green coalition having a majority. Could someone explain why?

Before 1995, Bremen had a SPD-Green-FDP government for one term, which didn't go too well. The 95 elections went very bad for the FDP (who failed the threshold), very bad for the SPD (their worst showing in the state ever IIRC), very well for the Greens, plus there was an SPD splitoff to the right which did very well (but then collapsed spectacularly in the next elections). There was a thin SPD-Green majority after that, but lots of people on the SPD's right were not ready for it. State PM Klaus Wedemeier resigned.

The SPD then held a ballot of its members, both as to who should succeed Wedemeier and as to who they should negotiate with first - Greens or CDU. There were two candidates to succeed Wedemeier. One was seen as favoring a Grand Coalition, one as favoring Red-Green, although both said they'd respect the members vote. As it happened, the supposed Red-Green fan, Henning Scherf won by a small margin, but so did a Grand Coalition.
Yeah well, and the Grand Coalition went quite well for the SPD, which recouped its losses, and Scherf developed a very good working relationship with his opposite number in the CDU, Hartmut Schartau, so it simply remained in place throughout the next two elections.
Although the coalition seems pretty worn out by now, and anyways Scherf and Schartau are both gone. Which is why it's possible that the coalition will come to an end soon.

[minionofmidas]

The same can be applied to Bavaria, where the CSU will somewhere be between 50 and 60%.

Polls have them right around the 50% mark... of course, by the time of the election, Stoiber will be gone, and the result depends on how well that asshole Beckstein settles in and on whether there'll be any major fallout after Seehofer inevitably loses the race for party chair to Erwin Huber. There definitely is a chance for the CSU to lose its absolute majority (mind you, I'm not optimistic - definitely an under 50% chance). They won't defend their current no. of seats, but then the last election went catastrophic for the SPD mostly for turnout differential reasons.

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The Hamburg SPD - just as used to governing as the Bremen one; I think there was a CDU-dominated government for four years in the 50s, but that was it until 2001 - is in catastrophic state.
They picked some relative unknown for state chairman after 2003 (one Mathias Petersen) who has managed to piss off the entire clique of SPD insiders/apparatchiks while making only a very minor, though net positive, impression on Hamburgers at large. He was challenged by his deputy for the nomination as head of the list, and there was a ballot of party members which ended with ballots stolen and both candidates withdrawing (Petersen, who apparently would have won the ballot easily enough, needed a couple days pressuring) and Michael Naumann, editor of Die Zeit and former federal under secretary for the arts, being catapulted in. Petersen remains party chairman. Hilarious.

[quot€]en, the CDU nearly got 50% in 2003, while the historically strong state SPD got trashed. Recent polls show a narrowing of the race, but the CDU for now has the advantage.[/quote]Roland Koch is phenomenally unpopular - phenomenally unpopular for a politician with a more than 50% chance of remaining in office, that is.
His challenger is Andrea Ypsilanti - a woman, pretty far left within the SPD, and quite a mouthful of a name (although she was born a simple Andrea Nöll, daughter of a Rüsselsheim auto worker. Married a Greek, hence the name.) So, two fairly polarizing figures. Should be good for better turnout, at least, which is bad news for the CDU, at least in terms of seat losses (once again, the last result is due to the fact that so many social democrats didn't bother to go and vote.)

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I guess so. I'm not even sure who the SPD will be running. After 2003, defeated state PM Sigmar Gabriel initially stayed on as leader of the opposition, but he's now federal minister of the environment (and doing a darn good job. Definitely my favorite member of the cabinet right now.)

Although I'm not sure if Lower Saxony can be called an "SPD heartland" - recent federal results notwithstanding. These include a large personal vote of Gerhard Schröder's. At the state level, Lower Saxony has had long periods of both SPD and CDU domination.

[minionofmidas]

Quite impressive gain for Die Linke.PDS and the Greens. DVU is far-right correct?

Yes.
BIW is btw the local descendant of Schill, and did not even run in Bremen. Siegerist's party bombed.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, and that one Green Stadtteil in the port area looks weird.

[minionofmidas]

And as Red-Green seems more likely than a continued Grand Coalition, may I present the new leader of the left-wing opposition, Peter Erlanson: