Joe Lieberman endorses Susan Collins for reelection

[Kevinstat]

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Full AP Wire article available at http://news.mainetoday.com/apwire/D8OFSMJO0-102.html

[Verily]

I thought Allen was pretty much confirmed?

In any case, this is a bit of a non-story. I doubt Lieberman will have much clout in Maine.

[Gabu]

I'm sure that all of the Maineans (Mainiacs?) will be completely and utterly swayed by who Joe Lieberman supports.

[TheresNoMoney]

I wouldn't expect anything less from Joe.

I also expect him to endorse the Republican for president in 2008.

[Kevinstat]

I thought Allen was pretty much confirmed?

That's because you probably get your news information from nationwide sources, that don't understand how to read signals in Maine.  It may seem odd for a Congressman to be at all affected by a bunch of term-limited or soon to be term-limited Legislators of his own party who are itching for a higher office to run for.  Susan Collins has served in Washington as long as Tom Allen has but it may not seem as long in the sense of others being boxed out as 2008 will be Collins's third race for the U.S. Senate (the first of which was a competative open seat race) while it would be Allen's seventh race for the House and sixth race for reelection.  Also, Republicans don't have the bench of self-important (and treated as important my the media) Legislators that the Democrats have, particularly in the first district.  And Allen hasn't been treated as at all vulnerable in the media since his second 2000 when the State Senate Republican leader ran a not-totally underfunded (at least) campaign and gained in the polls toward the end of the campaign, but that may have been going from being down 4 to 1 (like in a poll, albeit a Democratic and not always accurate one, in September - see http://www.mainetoday.com/election2000/stories/previous/000927polllayout.shtml ) to somewhere closer to the 23-point margin she ended up losing by.  Allen's reelection race in 2002 was the only one of the four "top-ticket" (Governor, U.S. Senator, or U.S. Representative, and President in Presidential election years) offices up for election that year that was not somewhat targeted by the challenging party or parties in the case of the Governor's race, and while one political pundit talked up former state Senator and Olympia Snowe aide (and '94 Congressional GOP primary runner-up) Charlie Summers when he announced for Congress in 2003, that interest quickly faded and Allen got close to the same percentage he got in 2000 although there was no third-party candidate in 2004.

Okay, I went on a major tangent there, but the point is that I think Allen has reason to keep expressing serious interest in running for the Senate (which some might interpret as him being all-but-certain to run) even if he's leaning against running or has decided not to.  Democrats who would not challenge him in the primary can keep preparing for an open Congressional race and when Allen announces for reelection they will either fade away or one or more of them will run as a sacrificial lamb against Collins - either way, those people would be in less of a position to challenge Allen later, say in 2010 should Allen decide to run for Governor or 2012 if Snowe retires then, than if they knew early in this election cycle that there was not going to be an open congressional seat and focused their efforts at getting seen as a contender for the 2010 Governor's race or a later contest.

One indication that Allen is should at least not be treated as "pretty much confirmed" is his spokesman's answer to the following question in the New York Times article ( http://www.nytimes.com/cq/2007/04/04/cq_2516.html ) on Chellie Pingree's filing paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission to run for Allen's seat, which is dated April 4:

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It almost sounds like the Allen camp may think Pingree was a little premature in her latest step (that must be different from forming an exploratory committee).  It was noticed by the editor of the conservative Maine web site AsMaineGoes that Allen had filed a CD-1 Statement of Candidacy with the FEC on March 30 (see http://www.asmainegoes.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=44343&highlight=allen and http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?_27039412452+0 ), but someone else replied that he thought it was a "spot holder" "just so he can continue to raise money without telling everyone he is running for the senate."  Apparently he has to be a candidate in that sense in order to report cash on hand by the April 15 deadline, which I imagine he has to do.  The poster who wrote that was one of the most sloppy writing posters on AMG (he posted very frequently during his campaign for state Representative in Portland in which he got 8.3% of the vote to 49.7% for the Democratic incumbent - a professor of his at USM and 41.9% for the Green Independent nominee), so what he says may not be entirely accurate and Allen's Statement of Candidacy may be a greater indication of Allen's plans then that guy indicates.  Regardless, my guess is Allen eventually announces he is running for reelection and Chellie Pingree converts her campaign for Congress to one for the U.S. Senate.  She would lose badly but would be an energetic candidate.

Part of my wonders, however, if some in the Democratic leadership are concerned that Pingree, with some of the finance reporting problems in her last campaign and taking advantage of loopholes she worked to close at Common Cause, might provide Maine Republicans with an opportunity to score points against the Democrats in general.  They could possibly want Allen to delay his announcement, even if he won't run against Collins, to limit the damage.  That's probably not the case, but it's a thought I've had.

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Agreed, although it will provide some ammo for some Conservatives to dis both Allen and Collins which will be interesting to observe on AsMaineGoes.

It's time for me to take a break from my computer.  I hope some of this information is useful and/or interesting.

P.S. Gabu, there is a professional hocky team in Lewiston a predominantly Quebecios Hocky League called the Lewiston MAINEiacs (website at http://www.lewistonhockey.com/ ), and I've heard that term used, albeit without the capital MAINE, before the team was created.  I haven't heard Maineans used before.

[TheresNoMoney]

Tom Allen is getting old, and this is probably his last real chance to get a Senate seat.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't run.

[Gabu]

I haven't heard Maineans used before.

What do you call people from Maine?  I honestly have no idea and was making a guess.

[Kevinstat]

Mainers (singular, Mainer) is the most common term that I've observed.  If you're being a little silly, than you can use Maineiacs or Maineacs (I'm not sure of the appropriate term), but that would draw attention from whatever point your trying to make (which sometimes is the intent of someone using the term Maineacs, I believe).  I'm not sure if official documents would use the word Mainers instead of "Maine residents", but if I were to use the word matter-of-factly in a sentance I might not get any giggles as I definitely would with Maineac or "Main-ah."

[Gabu]

Mainers (singular, Mainer) is the most common term that I've observed.

Oh, okay.

Learn something new every day.

[jokerman]

I also expect him to endorse the Republican for president in 2008.

I really don't think he will.  If he did, it would finally cause me to lose my respect for the man.

[7,052,770]

Blah, come ON Joe.  I stuck up for you for a year and you do something like this?

[YRABNNRM]

Blah, come ON Joe.  I stuck up for you for a year and you do something like this?

It's not like he's endorsing Inhofe.

[Boris]

I don't see why he wouldn't endorse Collins. They seem rather similar ideologically.

[SPC]

This will probably make Collins even more vulnerable.

[Gabu]

Blah, come ON Joe.  I stuck up for you for a year and you do something like this?

It's not like he's endorsing Inhofe.

You know how Harry feels about Republicans.

[Padfoot]

This will probably make Collins even more vulnerable.

I was wondering about that.  Given the strong anti-war sentiment and Democratic trends in New England I would think that the endorsement of a Democratic "traitor" who supports the war would be the last thing you'd want.  Would the Mainers care to comment?

Well Mainers?  Does Joe's endorsement of Collins make you more or less likely to re-elect her?  Or perhaps you are indifferent?

[Kevinstat]

I think it depends on who the Democratic nominee is.  If it's Tom Allen, I think Lieberman's endorsement of Collins in a race that is portrayed by the (admitedly perhaps a bit liberal) Maine media as competitive could energize the anti-war elements (who aren't all rosy on Allen - his Independent challenger last year was from the left, accusing Allen of supporting every or nearly every bill to fund the war, and got 7.8% of the vote) more than it would help Collins among "moderates" who are not happy about the war either.

If Chellie Pingree is the nominee, however, a prominent (albiet a renegade) Democrat's endorsement of Collins could enhance the perception among "Olympia Snowe Democrats" (voters, not necessarily enrolled Democrats, who vote Democratic for President and the U.S. House - and many of them voting Democratic for the Legislature, although the State Senate has been close for many years now and I think Republicans actually won the "popular vote" for the Senate in 2002 - but who vote for Snowe and in 2002 a lot of them for Collins for the Senate - Olympia won a greater percentage of the vote in 1994 than Collins did in 2002, although that was 1994)... it could enhance the perception among those voters that Pingree is on the far left.  Pingree had one "sreaming nurse" or something ad that people on AsMaineGoes have brought up recently.  I don't remember it but Collins did a good job in 2002 of countering "Independent ads" paid largely by unions attacking Collins I imagine and blaming Chellie Pingree for distorting the truth, even though Chellie Pingree herself or her campaign didn't pay for those ads.  Pingree's unfavorable numbers went up quite a bit at least at one point in the campaign - something the Bangor Daily News reported.  The BDN did endorse Collins; my "hometown" (Augusta, and the Waterville paper with which it shares an editorial board and many articles) were the only "primary" newspapers I know of which endorsed Pingree, and that surprised me, albiet pleasantly as I supported Pingree - I probably would this time as well as my parents don't feed Republicans (they jokingly say that anyway) and I think Maine should have at least one Democratic Senator, plus Collins's voice does grate at me a bit.

[Kevinstat]

Well Mainers?  Does Joe's endorsement of Collins make you more or less likely to re-elect her?  Or perhaps you are indifferent?

I think it won't make much difference either way though, but the slight difference it might make could be explained (as I see it) in my last post.

[HardRCafé]

plus Collins's voice does grate at me a bit.

I've never understood the thing with her voice.  People familiar with the issues really vote on things that trivial?  It's not like she has another voice she can use instead.

[Keystone Phil]

plus Collins's voice does grate at me a bit.

I've never understood the thing with her voice. 

Weird voice and she seems to always have a smile on her face.

[Aizen]

Susan Collins is a watered-down Olympia Snowe. She might even be an Olympia Snowe lackey.

[WalterMitty]

i joe lieberman.

[SPC]

i joe lieberman.

Please excuse my ignorance of internet terms, but what does i mean?

[WalterMitty]

i joe lieberman.

Please excuse my ignorance of internet terms, but what does i mean?

it is supposed to be a heart.

[SPC]

i joe lieberman.

Please excuse my ignorance of internet terms, but what does i mean?

it is supposed to be a heart.

Oh, thank you.