Results in 2004 by Metro Area

[nclib]

Does anyone know the 2004 presidential results of any metro area(s)? I'm surprised I can't easily find this online, given that most metro areas contain whole counties. I have the 2000 results, so I'm also interested in comparing the swings from 2000-2004.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Do you have a list of which metro areas contain which counties?  I'll be happy to do it for you.

[Sibboleth]

Do you have a list of which metro areas contain which counties?  I'll be happy to do it for you.

As they were in 2004: http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/List4.txt

[Grad Students are the Worst]

This is more wrist-damaging than I expected.  But if you make me a list of metro areas you're interested in (or a criterion), I'll make you a table.
I'm planning on doing votes cast total and Bush votes for each year, unless you want a more detailed table.

[nclib]

This is more wrist-damaging than I expected.  But if you make me a list of metro areas you're interested in (or a criterion), I'll make you a table.
I'm planning on doing votes cast total and Bush votes for each year, unless you want a more detailed table.

Thanks, Alcon. I was just thinking of the 10-15 largest metro areas in the nation, and/or the major N.C. ones, whatever you're comfortable with.

[memphis]

Kerry won Memphis metro with 52.8%. It's probably one of his only Southern metros (even Atlanta, Austin, and New Orleans went for Bush). Gainesville, FL, with the huge University of Florida, is the only other one I could find (I don't count Southern Florida as the South). I have to say that the Census people included extremely rural areas within an hour's drive, which seems to me to be rather generous as to what consitutes a metro area,

[nclib]

Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%.

I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%.

I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population?

53% white, 44% black.

But DeSoto County, Mississippi, is really the only county large enough to threaten Shelby County, Tennessee's domination of the metro.

[Jaggerjack]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

[memphis]

Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%.

I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population?

53% white, 44% black.

But DeSoto County, Mississippi, is really the only county large enough to threaten Shelby County, Tennessee's domination of the metro.

Yeah, I don't think there is any other metro in the nation that is as African-American. Living here, it's really hard to believe that the US is only 13% black and that TN is only 17% black. DeSoto is growing quickly but it is still tiny compared to Shelby. Republicans get far more votes in the eastern (white) half of Shelby County

[memphis]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City....

[Jeff from NC]

Kerry won Mecklenburg County (of which Charlotte, NC is the seat) with, I think, 52% - however most definitions of the Charlotte metro area include at least a handful of surrounding counties, which probably would give Bush a slight edge.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%.

I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population?

53% white, 44% black.

But DeSoto County, Mississippi, is really the only county large enough to threaten Shelby County, Tennessee's domination of the metro.

Yeah, I don't think there is any other metro in the nation that is as African-American. Living here, it's really hard to believe that the US is only 13% black and that TN is only 17% black. DeSoto is growing quickly but it is still tiny compared to Shelby. Republicans get far more votes in the eastern (white) half of Shelby County

Yeah, I was just in Indianapolis, and I couldn't believe the city is only 25% black. I probably didn't even see 10 white people who weren't at the hostel or there for the fest. Like I said before, I must've been staying deep in the hood.

[BushKenya]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma  -- They are not the top 15, but they're still pretty big, especially Oklahoma City and they count as metro areas.

[Senator Sbane]

The nine county san francisco bay area vote was 69.2-29.3% with a margin of 1,111,501 votes. If you exclude the bay area from California the margin of votes for Kerry would have been about 120,000. And the state would still have about 44 electoral votes so as you can imagine it would be tighter than Ohio in the PV margin. That just goes to show you how republican southern california is.

[Torie]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City....

Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?).   Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it.

[Senator Sbane]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City....

Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?).   Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it.

Milwaukee and the Twin cities voted republican? That is a bit surprising. LA did not vote republican but they very pretty close( by my standards). You know everyone on here thinks LA and they think stone cold liberalism, but that is not the case. I do believe if you include the IE the pv margin for Kerry becomes something like a 5 point lead. If you compare that to the New York area or the chicago area you will see that they voted at a much higher rate for Kerry. No LA is not as bad as some of those southern cities, but we are somewhere in the middle. Definitely nowhere near the most democratic population center in America.

P.S. Are Weld and elbert counties included in the denver area? If you do and not include boulder you get a slightly pro-bush result. Adding boulder just ruins all the fun for you guys. Also is park county of south park fame considered suburbs? I would guess not. The town the show is based of is not even located in the county if I remember correctly.

[Torie]

Wow. there are a lot of counties in the Denver, MSA, but not Boulder. However, Weld isn't included either, so while Bush comes close, he loses.

                       Bush   Kerry   
arapahoe      119,475   110262   
adams            65,912    69,122   
denver             69,903  166,135   
jefferson        140,644  126,558   
douglas           80,651   39,661   
clear creek        2,522       2,989   
Broomfield       12,007      10,935   
gilpin                  1,329      1,807   
elbert                 8,389    2,834   
park                  4,781     3,445   

                   505,613    533,748    0.486

[Senator Sbane]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City....

Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?).   Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it.

Are you sure about the twin cities? I actually think they voted for Kerry by a pretty comfortable margin. Something like 100,000 votes or so if not more.

[Torie]

Bush won the Twin City suburbs in 2004, but not the MSA. I was recollecting the burbs when I made my comment I think.

                  Kerry          Bush
Total         912,069     782,047     46.16%
Minnea    -156,214     -41,633   
St. Paul     -99,851     -35,671   
         
                656,004     704,743      51.79%

[Senator Sbane]

Bush won the Twin City suburbs in 2004, but not the MSA. I was recollecting the burbs when I made my comment I think.

                  Kerry          Bush
Total         912,069     782,047           46.16%
Minnea    -156,214     -41,633   
St. Paul     -99,851     -35,671   
         
                656,004     704,743      51.79%

Yeah that makes sense.. Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one.

[Torie]

Ya barely. Bush won the burbs by 51.79%, and Minnesota ex the Twin Cities MSA by 51.44%. 


It looks like Bush carried the Milwaukee MSA by about 10,000 votes per a back of the envelop calculation by the way.

[Senator Sbane]

Ya barely. Bush won the burbs by 51.79%, and Minnesota ex the Twin Cities MSA by 51.44%. 


It looks like Bush carried the Milwaukee MSA by about 10,000 votes per a back of the envelop calculation by the way.

Yes I do believe you are right about Milwaukee. Alas las votas de muerte were not enough to turn Milwaukee blue.

[nclib]

And Virginia Beach should be added as Republican, very Republican.

It's always surprised me why this area is reliably Republican, given its size and location. Or isn't there a high military population?

Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one.

The only other states I can think of are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma, though of course the latter is very Republican everywhere.

[Torie]

And Virginia Beach should be added as Republican, very Republican.

It's always surprised me why this area is reliably Republican, given its size and location. Or isn't there a high military population?

Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one.

The only other states I can think of are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma, though of course the latter is very Republican everywhere.

One might consider Georgia, North and  South Carolina, Louisiana and Arizona as well, off the top of my head. And oh yes, definitely Mississippi (e.g. Rankin and DeSoto counties) and Indiana (the belt of counties around Marion County, which is co-extensive with the city of Indianapolis these days, after unigov went into effect).