NJ-Quinnipiac: Giuliani continues to lead all Democrats in the Garden State

[Tender Branson]

General Election:

Giuliani vs. Clinton: 49-40
Giuliani  vs. Obama: 48-38
Giuliani  vs. Edwards: 48-41

McCain vs. Clinton : 41-45
McCain vs. Obama : 41-43
McCain vs. Edwards : 41-42

Romney vs. Clinton: 31-50
Romney vs. Obama: 26-50
Romney vs. Edwards: 26-51

Democratic Primary:

Clinton: 38%
Obama: 16%
Gore: 12%
Edwards: 9%

Republican Primary:
 
Giuliani: 49%
McCain: 18%
Fred Thompson: 6%
Romney: 5%
Gingrich: 4%

From April 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,424 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 460 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, and 504 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1043

[agcatter]

Republicans won't need Ohio if they peel off NJ or Pennsylvania.  More evidence that this is doable.

[Tender Branson]

Republicans won't need Ohio if they peel off NJ or Pennsylvania.  More evidence that this is doable.

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

Have a look at the June 19, 2003 Qunnipiac poll:

In a hypothetical look at the 2004 Presidential race in New Jersey:
 
Bush beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 54 - 38 percent;
Bush tops Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman 53 - 39 percent;
Bush beats Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 53 - 37 percent.

Kerry won NJ by 7%.

[agcatter]

No one is counting their chickens.  However Rudy would run much stronger than Bush ever hoped he could in the Philly and NJ suburbs.  That's the difference.

[Reaganfan]

Key finding: New Jersey voters give Giuliani a 62% favorable rating

[Kevin]

Rudy is a moderate Northeast Republican, While Bush is a all around conservative who didn't have much of a chance in any other NE states exept NH and PA.

[Sam Spade]

Republicans won't need Ohio if they peel off NJ or Pennsylvania.  More evidence that this is doable.

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

Have a look at the June 19, 2003 Qunnipiac poll:

In a hypothetical look at the 2004 Presidential race in New Jersey:
 
Bush beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 54 - 38 percent;
Bush tops Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman 53 - 39 percent;
Bush beats Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 53 - 37 percent.

Kerry won NJ by 7%.

Query:  What was Bush's approval rating at that date in time?

[Mr. Morden]

The relevant question is whether Giuliani could carry NJ in an election that's really really close nationally.  If the election isn't close (one side of the other wins by a decent margin), then what happens at the state by state level is irrelevant.  To figure out if Giuliani could carry NJ in a close national race, I would think you would want to compare Giuliani's numbers in NJ to his numbers in other states, not compare them to what happened in previous elections in NJ.

[Keystone Phil]

Fred Thompson ahead of Romney in New Jersey. Hahaha at you, Mitt.

[Tender Branson]

Republicans won't need Ohio if they peel off NJ or Pennsylvania.  More evidence that this is doable.

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

Have a look at the June 19, 2003 Qunnipiac poll:

In a hypothetical look at the 2004 Presidential race in New Jersey:
 
Bush beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 54 - 38 percent;
Bush tops Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman 53 - 39 percent;
Bush beats Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 53 - 37 percent.

Kerry won NJ by 7%.

Query:  What was Bush's approval rating at that date in time?

June 19, 2003:

"President George W. Bush's approval rating has dropped to 58 - 39 percent in New Jersey, but he still has a solid early lead over any of the possible Democratic challengers in the run for the White House, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today."

April 19, 2007:

"New Jersey voters give Giuliani a 62 - 27 percent favorability rating."

Lets wait for June ...