Doolittle and Renzi

[Padfoot]

Rick Renzi has become the second Republican Congressman this week to step down from his position on a committee.  Will either of these two make it all the way to the 111th Congress?  If not, how will they leave office?  Resignation? Primary defeat? General defeat? 

Also, if the Republicans do end up nominating other candidates will they hold these seats in 2008?  Both of these districts saw eerily similar results in 2006.    Renzi won 51-44-5 and Doolittle won 49-46-5.  The third candidate in both races was a Libertarian.  Renzi's win was a little more comfortable than Doolittle's but these were both very narrow victories for candidates who had held previous Democratic opponents below 40% and are used to double digit point leads.  On paper, Renzi's district actually seems more competitive despite his better performance.  AZ-1 contains higher populations of minorities and blue collar and service workers.  Also Bush won CA-4 by 24 points but won AZ-1 by only 9.

Personally, I think these districts could end up being the CA-50s of the 2008 cycle but only if the incumbents step down or decline to run for re-election.  If they try to get re-elected I think they will likely be defeated especially if the libertarians make another strong showing.

[RBH]

When it comes to the possibility of them stepping down.

A CA-4 special election could be pretty similar to the CA-50 election. But, Brown could get 47% to start off with, unless the main GOP candidate is good.

A AZ-1 special election is made more complex by the possibility that the Navajos who voted for Renzi switch back to voting Democrat.