French Presidential Election; Results Thread (1st round)

[CARLHAYDEN]

I was comparing the final predictions of 12 posters, and found the following accuracy ranking (using BBC numbers).

Tied for first place, Democratic Hawk, Keystone Phil and yours truly.

Tied for fourth, Kireev and Tobias Beecher.

Sixth was Harry Haller.

Seventh was Sarkozy.

Eighth was Sam Spade.

Ninth was Gustaf

Tied for tenth were Gully Foyle and Lewis Trondheim

Twelveth was Verily.

Since his last prediction post actually contained two seperate predictions, the latter of which was a range, I omitted Umengus from the list.

Now, both Sarkozy and Keystone Phil were very close in predicting Sarkozy's percentage.

Democratic Hawk was extremely close in predicting Royal's percentage.

Harry Haller had the best prediction for Bayrou.

I had the closest prediction for Le Pen.

[afleitch]

http://www.geoclip.fr/an/p241_atlasfrance.php

Updated the demo of France with some 2007 stats, including down to muncipality level

[afleitch]

Segolene county by county

[afleitch]

And now Sarkozy

[Demented Voter]

Interesting to see the sectarian voting patterns in and around the Cevannes.

[ThePrezMex]

afleitch, thanks for all the maps!!

It's definitely above average for Royal in Bretagne, isn't it? Do we know why could that be?

While I agree that Bayrou voters will be the most important to determine the winner of the run-off, I also think that we would need to analyze Le Pen's voters, i.e., given his collapse (and since we could argue that many of his 2002 voters already switched to Sarkozy), who are the ones who still voted for him (agewise, etc)? would they be easily ready to vote for Sarkozy or would they prefer to abstain?
Again, I think Sarkozy has the advantage as he would be in a better position to get the majority of Bayrou's voters (as some polls are suggesting already) - but in a scenario in which Royal gets them, the above mentioned analysis would be relevant.
Standard political theory would indicate that Royal needs to move rightwards and Sarkozy stay still, right?

[afleitch]

It's definitely above average for Royal in Bretagne, isn't it? Do we know why could that be?

Bayrou

[afleitch]

Bayrou

[猫主席]

Interesting to see Sarkozy's awful performance in the 93...guess we know why...

And what's with Corsica and its voting patterns? Does anyone know how the DOM-TOM voted, and how the expatriate population voted?

[kireev]

Excellent maps! Thanks a lot! Is Le Pen coming soon?

Bayrou

[PGSable]

Interesting to see Sarkozy's awful performance in the 93...guess we know why...

And what's with Corsica and its voting patterns? Does anyone know how the DOM-TOM voted, and how the expatriate population voted?

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/sections/a_votre_service/resultats-elections/PR2007/index.html

According to the Interior Ministry's website, Royal carried Martinique, Réunion, and Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelin, while Sarkozy won Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Mayotte, Wallis-and-Futuna, French Polynesia, and New Caledonia.


http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/sections/a_votre_service/resultats-elections/PR2007/000/099/99.html

The expatriate electorate gave Sarkozy 38.5%, Royal 29.9%, and Bayrou 21.5%. I think Sarkozy won 55% of the votes cast at the New York City consulate, against roughly 20% for Royal, 10% for Bayrou, and 10% for Le Pen.

[Sam Spade]

I said my prediction was going to be terrible, and it was.  I really didn't study the polling on this one more than a furtive glance.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I said my prediction was going to be terrible, and it was.  I really didn't study the polling on this one more than a furtive glance.

Even the polls were signifcantly wrong.

It appears that about a quarter of the vote the polls showed going to Le Pen actually went to Sarkozy.

Also, I don't know of anybody who predicted such a high turnout.

[Getúlio L'Hermine Vargas]

i'd like the Riyadh voting booth results.

[Hatman]

How did Montreal vote? They have the highest number of French citizens outside of France.