Manitoba 2007

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba goes to the polls on May 27th.

Map of the last election:


At dissolution the NDP held 35 seats, the Progressive Conservatives 18 and the Liberals 2. There was one independent and one vacant seat.

The NDP leader is Premier Gary Albert Doer who has been premier since 1999. The Tory leader is Hugh McFadyen, a former World Junior curling champion, who was has been leader in 2006. The Liberal leader is Jon Gerrard who has been leader since 1998. The Green leader is 23 year old Andrew Basham who has been leader since 2006.
The Communist Party and the Freedom Party are also registered parties.

[Bono]

Polls?

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls?

The last one was in March

*NDP 40% (+2)
*PC 40% (-1)
*LIB 15% (-1)

[Verily]

Likely a come-from-behind victory for the NDP. They've been back in the polls for a while, but Manitoba still isn't too keen on a PC government, and Manitobans have realized that the PCs are still the only credible alternative to the NDP. McFadyen is a joke, too. He's been in politics for a barely over a year (since December 2005) with his only prior experience in curling yet the PCs made him Opposition Leader with hopes of winning on his "fame" rather than their policies.

I predict very similar results to 1999.

NDP: 42%, 31 seats
PC: 39%, 23 seats
Liberal: 15%, 3 seats
Green: 3%, 0 seats
Other: 1%, 0 seats

NDP majority, somewhat reduced from 2003.

Any thoughts of Denis Rocan's ability to hold Carman as an NDP-supported Independent instead of a PC? Carman is a pretty safe PC riding, but Rocan probably has a large personal vote. I am skeptical and have his seat going back to the PCs, but maybe he could do it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Likely a come-from-behind victory for the NDP. They've been back in the polls for a while, but Manitoba still isn't too keen on a PC government, and Manitobans have realized that the PCs are still the only credible alternative to the NDP. McFadyen is a joke, too. He's been in politics for a barely over a year (since December 2005) with his only prior experience in curling yet the PCs made him Opposition Leader with hopes of winning on his "fame" rather than their policies.

I predict very similar results to 1999.

NDP: 42%, 31 seats
PC: 39%, 23 seats
Liberal: 15%, 3 seats
Green: 3%, 0 seats
Other: 1%, 0 seats

NDP majority.

Any thoughts of Denis Rocan's ability to hold Carman as an NDP-supported Independent instead of a PC? Carman is a pretty safe PC riding, but Rocan probably has a large personal vote. I personally am skeptical.

There were only a few close ridings last time that the NDP won, so it will be an uphill battle for the tories to begin with.

BTW, I wouldn't call winning a World Junior Curling championship "famous". I know a lot about curling, and I can say I hadn't heard of him until I realized he was their leader. He does have political experience as a political advisor and is the nephew of a former cabinet minister.

[Verily]

Likely a come-from-behind victory for the NDP. They've been back in the polls for a while, but Manitoba still isn't too keen on a PC government, and Manitobans have realized that the PCs are still the only credible alternative to the NDP. McFadyen is a joke, too. He's been in politics for a barely over a year (since December 2005) with his only prior experience in curling yet the PCs made him Opposition Leader with hopes of winning on his "fame" rather than their policies.

I predict very similar results to 1999.

NDP: 42%, 31 seats
PC: 39%, 23 seats
Liberal: 15%, 3 seats
Green: 3%, 0 seats
Other: 1%, 0 seats

NDP majority.

Any thoughts of Denis Rocan's ability to hold Carman as an NDP-supported Independent instead of a PC? Carman is a pretty safe PC riding, but Rocan probably has a large personal vote. I personally am skeptical.

There were only a few close ridings last time that the NDP won, so it will be an uphill battle for the tories to begin with.

BTW, I wouldn't call winning a World Junior Curling championship "famous". I know a lot about curling, and I can say I hadn't heard of him until I realized he was their leader. He does have political experience as a political advisor and is the nephew of a former cabinet minister.

That's why I put "fame" in quotation marks, although I imagine he's more well-known in Manitoba than Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

As for Carman; if Duncan is backed by the NDP he may have trouble winning the riding. In fact, I'd say he won't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think I've seen the Manitoba NDP's campaign slogan (well, part of it) somewhere before...

[merseysider]

I think I've seen the Manitoba NDP's campaign slogan (well, part of it) somewhere before...

Yes I think I have too!

There is something of a history of campaign slogans being copied from other English-speaking democracies.

In the 2002 general election in Ireland, both Fianna Fail and the Irish Labour Party used British Labour slogans from 2001 - I think FF used "a lot done, a lot more to do" and Labour used "Ambitious for Ireland" (Ambitious for Britain was a sort of subsidiary Labour slogan in '01)

British Labour's 1992 slogan "It's time" or "It's time for Labour" was copied from Gough Whitlam and the Australian Labor Party in 1972.

[Hash]

Wasn't "Forwards, not backwards" a British slogan in some recent election? Labour 05 right?

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump.

Recent poll

44-NDP, 37-PC, 16-Lib, 3-Others

Election on Tuesday!

[Verily]

Good to hear that the NDP is keeping the Tories at bay. Also, the PCs apparently failed to even field a candidate in Flin Flon. Admittedly, it wasn't likely to change hands, but it's rather humiliating for the PCs that the Liberals are running a full slate and they are not.

It'll be interesting to see if the Greens do as well or better in Wolseley as they did last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Angus Reid poll very nice to see
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.05.19%20Manitoba%20Election.pdf

NDP 49%
Cons 37%
Libs 9%
Greens 5%

Doer approved by 63%

[Hash]

Angus-Reid was the best prediction prior to the Quebecois election.

[Verily]

Angus Reid poll very nice to see
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.05.19%20Manitoba%20Election.pdf

NDP 49%
Cons 37%
Libs 9%
Greens 5%

Doer approved by 63%

That would be pretty much a rerun of 2003 with the Liberals losing both of their seats, one to the NDP and one (possibly) to the PCs. On those numbers, the Greens would win Wolseley (19.49% in Wolseley last time on 0.96% province-wide), but they're only running candidates in about 1/4 of all ridings, so 5% is highly unlikely.

[Hatman 🍁]

Angus Reid poll very nice to see
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.05.19%20Manitoba%20Election.pdf

NDP 49%
Cons 37%
Libs 9%
Greens 5%

Doer approved by 63%

That would be pretty much a rerun of 2003 with the Liberals losing both of their seats, one to the NDP and one (possibly) to the PCs. On those numbers, the Greens would win Wolseley (19.49% in Wolseley last time on 0.96% province-wide), but they're only running candidates in about 1/4 of all ridings, so 5% is highly unlikely.

I dont think the Liberals will lose both seats. Maybe one of them.

[Verily]

I would expect Lamoreux to be more likely to hold on even though he had a much smaller margin last time. The NDP are the incumbent government, so it will be difficult for them to oust Lamoreux, but the PCs may be able to oust Gerrard from a seat they won as recently as 1995.

OTOH, I just looked up Ashley Burner, the PC candidate in River Heights. Sounds like the definition of a paper candidate. Maybe the Liberals will hold both seats.

On an aside, talk about a collection of bad party logos. They don't even attempt to stand for anything (well, except the Greens, but that's just the generic sunflower):

[Hash]

PC logo is the best of the ugly bunch.

[Hatman 🍁]

I like the Liberal logo, actually.

But anyway...

FYI polls close at 9pm here on the east coast. 8pm in Manitoba.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results coming in now

Tories lead in Lac du Bonnet

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories lead in Turtle Mountain; NDP leads in St Norbert

[Verily]

Do you have a website for results, EarlAW?

Never mind, found it on CBC.

[Hatman 🍁]

11-6 now for the NDP

Watching it on CBC Newsworld

[Verily]

The NDP currently has an enormous lead, though that will probably subside as the night goes on. Still, if it wasn't clear before, it's clear now that the NDP has won another term.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP leads in 3 seats they didnt win last time.

Also, they keep saying Doer is the second most popular premier in Canada after Danny Williams