French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread

[CARLHAYDEN]

Bayrou is not so smart: democratic party in french is "parti démocratique", initials PD. PD is a very used insult in French (to say gay). You can image jokes on it... In Belgium, a guy had the same idea but before this problem, changed his mind.

For the second turn, I predict a solid victory for Sarkozy, by 53,4%. No polls have given a Royal win for january. Her only chance is to have a very very good report from the far left votes, a very good penetration in the Bayrou vote (65% at least) and a bad report of the FN votes on Sarkozy. Probably of this scenario: weak.

A couple of questions for you as you appear to be particularly knowledgeable about French politicis:

1). Do you anticipate that the turnout will be significantly down in the final from the first round?

2.) Does Royal have the problem of, as the Brits would put it, "falling between two stools" by trying to round up the votes of the lefties and simultaneously appealing to the Bayrou voters?

[Vasall des Midas]

Breaking News...

Le Pen calls on his voters to stay home in second round.

If that has any impact, Sarkozy may well be toast.
It probably doesn't have much impact though...

[Verily]

Link? That may be big news. Most of the ones who would ignore Le Pen probably voted for Sarkozy in the first round anyway (the ones who voted Le Pen in 2002 and Sarkozy in 2007).

[Vasall des Midas]

Link? That may be big news. Most of the ones who would ignore Le Pen probably voted for Sarkozy in the first round anyway (the ones who voted Le Pen in 2002 and Sarkozy in 2007).

It'd be big news only if it was unexpected to Le Pen voters - and I'm not so sure of that. It's completely in character.

Here's a link - not my original source of the news o/c (which was in German)

[Tender Branson]

For the German speaking members here (= Lewis):

ARTE will live stream the debate on its website tomorrow at 9pm with German simultaneous translation

[Vasall des Midas]

For the German speaking members here (= Lewis):

ARTE will live stream the debate on its website tomorrow at 9pm with German simultaneous translation

Thanks, I speak French well enough. I'd much prefer for them to simply air it live on tv.

[Michael Z]

For the German speaking members here (= Lewis):

Don't forget about me!

ARTE will live stream the debate on its website tomorrow at 9pm with German simultaneous translation

[Tender Branson]

For the German speaking members here (= Lewis):

ARTE will live stream the debate on its website tomorrow at 9pm with German simultaneous translation

Thanks, I speak French well enough. I'd much prefer for them to simply air it live on tv.

Well thats good for you, because I just speak English, German and Italian fluently. But anyway, TV5 is broadcasting it live in French. ARTE just on its website.

[Tender Branson]

For the German speaking members here (= Lewis):

Don't forget about me!

Hab nicht gewusst, dass du auch deutsch sprichst !

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

No, I don't think Sarkozy is toast because of this. This doesn't mean 100% of FN voters will stay home.

[Keystone Phil]

Does anyone know what time the debate will begin for us folks on the East Coast across the pond?    Also, will France 24 be covering this debate online? I'd love to watch a live stream.

[Hatman]

I heard that Royal is doing well amongst male voters while women are supporting Sarkozy. I find this odd, does anyone have any info?

[Gabu]

I heard that Royal is doing well amongst male voters while women are supporting Sarkozy. I find this odd, does anyone have any info?

She's hot by the standards of politicians; need we say more?

[Keystone Phil]

Does anyone know what time the debate will begin for us folks on the East Coast across the pond?    Also, will France 24 be covering this debate online? I'd love to watch a live stream.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know what time the debate will begin for us folks on the East Coast across the pond?    Also, will France 24 be covering this debate online? I'd love to watch a live stream.

The debate begins at 3 pm your time. I don´t know if France 24 will show it, their website says nothing ... Just watch ARTE TV or TV5 instead

[Keystone Phil]

Does anyone know what time the debate will begin for us folks on the East Coast across the pond?    Also, will France 24 be covering this debate online? I'd love to watch a live stream.

The debate begins at 3 pm your time. I don´t know if France 24 will show it, their website says nothing ... Just watch ARTE TV or TV5 instead

I'm sure I'll get a lot of questions at work as to what the hell I am watching. 

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know what time the debate will begin for us folks on the East Coast across the pond?    Also, will France 24 be covering this debate online? I'd love to watch a live stream.

The debate begins at 3 pm your time. I don´t know if France 24 will show it, their website says nothing ... Just watch ARTE TV or TV5 instead

I'm sure I'll get a lot of questions at work as to what the hell I am watching. 

Watch out ! As a PA Republican you'll probably get lynched for watching a "FRENCH" debate. Get your Freedom fries ready ...

[Hatman]

I heard that Royal is doing well amongst male voters while women are supporting Sarkozy. I find this odd, does anyone have any info?

She's hot by the standards of politicians; need we say more?

That's true and all, but it still amazes me that she's older than my mother!

[Hatman]

Does TV5 have live streaming? I wont be home to watch it on the TV.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

I'll try to catch a part of it on TV5, but it's at 22:00 RUH time.

[Keystone Phil]

Watch out ! As a PA Republican you'll probably get lynched for watching a "FRENCH" debate. Get your Freedom fries ready ...

I don't blame them for mocking me. I have a known hatred for the French but I am interested in following their elections and Sarkozy is actually a good guy for the U.S.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Better not show the French hatred in front of me.

[Umengus]

Bayrou is not so smart: democratic party in french is "parti démocratique", initials PD. PD is a very used insult in French (to say gay). You can image jokes on it... In Belgium, a guy had the same idea but before this problem, changed his mind.

For the second turn, I predict a solid victory for Sarkozy, by 53,4%. No polls have given a Royal win for january. Her only chance is to have a very very good report from the far left votes, a very good penetration in the Bayrou vote (65% at least) and a bad report of the FN votes on Sarkozy. Probably of this scenario: weak.

A couple of questions for you as you appear to be particularly knowledgeable about French politicis:

1). Do you anticipate that the turnout will be significantly down in the final from the first round?

2.) Does Royal have the problem of, as the Brits would put it, "falling between two stools" by trying to round up the votes of the lefties and simultaneously appealing to the Bayrou voters?

1) Polls say that turnout should lower than the first round (80%). Some far left and far right voters should not vote.

2) Not really, because the far left vote is weak. Royal tries not really to catch the far left vote (just the minimum), she tries to catch the Bayrou vote but she will fail I think because in the bayrou vote, you have center-left people who were not happy with the royal's incompetence and they will vote royal at the second turn but you have also the "udf voters", who are at right (more conservative than an ump voter but more left on economy. But not great difference). The game is to know the proportion of both in the 18,5%. 50% 50% maybe. Not enough for Royal.

During the sunday meeting, Sarkozy has not tried to tend to the center. He stays on his values, bashing "may 1968", the cause of all problems in France. And one more time, it's Sarkozy who decides the agenda. For now, this guy is probably the best candidate, the best politician, the best communicator  that I have seen in my short life.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

the best pollster for the 1st run.

Royal :46,5% (-0,5%)
Sarkozy: 53,5% (+0,5)

15% refuse to say.

Bayrou voters (difficult at polled): royal: 36% (-5)
                                                     Sarkozy: 37% (+5)
                                                      Abstention: 27%

extreme left: Royal: 70% (-4)
                     Sarkozy: 8% (-2)
                     Abstention: 22% (+6)

Le pen voters: Royal: 9% (-6)
                        Sarkozy: 57% (-4)
                        Abstention: 34% (+10)

 

[Tender Branson]

Debate starts right now.