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Author Topic: French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread  (Read 70076 times)
Hatman
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« Reply #75 on: May 04, 2007, 12:09:57 pm »
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Quote from: SoFA Gabu on May 04, 2007, 12:06:34 pm
Quote from: Tobias Beecher on May 04, 2007, 02:17:31 am
Pauvre Segolene, j'adore elle.

"Je l'adore". Wink

Vous pwn3z!
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« Reply #76 on: May 04, 2007, 12:12:41 pm »
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Quote from: EarlAW on May 04, 2007, 12:09:57 pm
Quote from: SoFA Gabu on May 04, 2007, 12:06:34 pm
Quote from: Tobias Beecher on May 04, 2007, 02:17:31 am
Pauvre Segolene, j'adore elle.

"Je l'adore". Wink

Vous pwn3z!

le français r0x0rze mes b0x0rz
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Hatman
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« Reply #77 on: May 04, 2007, 12:13:32 pm »
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Quote from: SoFA Gabu on May 04, 2007, 12:12:41 pm
Quote from: EarlAW on May 04, 2007, 12:09:57 pm
Quote from: SoFA Gabu on May 04, 2007, 12:06:34 pm
Quote from: Tobias Beecher on May 04, 2007, 02:17:31 am
Pauvre Segolene, j'adore elle.

"Je l'adore". Wink

Vous pwn3z!

le français r0x0rze mes b0x0rz

mdr!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #78 on: May 04, 2007, 04:25:30 pm »
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Quote from: Sam Spade on May 04, 2007, 06:44:52 am
Prediction (and I am bad at French elections, as you've discovered)

Sarkozy 53.4
Royal 46.6

After today's Royal outburst, I'm pushing Sarkozy up a point to 54.4 and I personally think he could get over 55.  It's always easy to sense when a candidate is definitely going to lose, and this is that day.
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« Reply #79 on: May 04, 2007, 05:15:09 pm »
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Quote from: Sam Spade on May 04, 2007, 04:25:30 pm
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 04, 2007, 06:44:52 am
Prediction (and I am bad at French elections, as you've discovered)

Sarkozy 53.4
Royal 46.6

After today's Royal outburst, I'm pushing Sarkozy up a point to 54.4 and I personally think he could get over 55.  It's always easy to sense when a candidate is definitely going to lose, and this is that day.

She had an outburst today, too? You've got to be kidding me. I love it.
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
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« Reply #80 on: May 04, 2007, 05:21:34 pm »
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With 100% of the clinically insane precincts reporting, it appears Ms. Royal will be the winner...
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
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« Reply #81 on: May 04, 2007, 05:26:28 pm »
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It appears Mme Royale has been taking tips from the Scottish Labour campaign team Smiley
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #82 on: May 04, 2007, 06:39:43 pm »
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'Tis a shame that the Socialist Party, which ahd such potential coming into this race, has been slapped in the face by an incompetent candidate who has essentially ruined them for the next year at least. This was thier chance!

Aaaaarrrrrrggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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« Reply #83 on: May 04, 2007, 09:04:29 pm »
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Quote from: Keystone Phil on May 04, 2007, 05:15:09 pm
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 04, 2007, 04:25:30 pm
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 04, 2007, 06:44:52 am
Prediction (and I am bad at French elections, as you've discovered)

Sarkozy 53.4
Royal 46.6

After today's Royal outburst, I'm pushing Sarkozy up a point to 54.4 and I personally think he could get over 55.  It's always easy to sense when a candidate is definitely going to lose, and this is that day.

She had an outburst today, too? You've got to be kidding me. I love it.

Are you talking about her threat of having her supporters riot if she is not elected?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #84 on: May 04, 2007, 11:23:54 pm »
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Quote from: CARLHAYDEN on May 04, 2007, 09:04:29 pm
Quote from: Keystone Phil on May 04, 2007, 05:15:09 pm
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 04, 2007, 04:25:30 pm
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 04, 2007, 06:44:52 am
Prediction (and I am bad at French elections, as you've discovered)

Sarkozy 53.4
Royal 46.6

After today's Royal outburst, I'm pushing Sarkozy up a point to 54.4 and I personally think he could get over 55.  It's always easy to sense when a candidate is definitely going to lose, and this is that day.

She had an outburst today, too? You've got to be kidding me. I love it.

Are you talking about her threat of having her supporters riot if she is not elected?

I don't know. It was Sam who said she had another outburst.
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
Tender Branson
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« Reply #85 on: May 05, 2007, 01:21:50 am »
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I revise my latest prediction upwards and now predict:

Sarkozy: 56,2%
Royal: 43,8%
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« Reply #86 on: May 05, 2007, 06:26:57 am »
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Quote from: Speed of Sound on May 04, 2007, 06:39:43 pm
'Tis a shame that the Socialist Party, which ahd such potential coming into this race, has been slapped in the face by an incompetent candidate who has essentially ruined them for the next year at least. This was thier chance!

Aaaaarrrrrrggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Royal was the best candidate for the ps. She was nomitad because polls showed she was the best to beat Sarkozy. I think that Fabius and Strauss kahn would have make worse.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

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« Reply #87 on: May 05, 2007, 06:35:14 am »
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Last polls, all after the debate.

Ipsos poll

Sarkozy: 55 % (+1)
royal: 45% (- 1)

Are your sure?

royal voters: 89% (-2)
Sarkozy voter: 93% (+5)

Bayrou voters:

Royal 35% (=)
Sarkozy: 36% (+1)
abstention: 29% (-1)

Le Pen voters:

Royal: 9% (-5)
Sarkozy: 70% (+12)
abstention: 21% (-7)

extreme left voters:

Royal 64% (-2)
Sarkozy: 21% (+8)
abstention: 15% (-6)

CSA poll

Royal: 47% (-1)
Sarkozy: 53% (+1)

Turnout: 80%

Debate

most convincing

Sarkozy: 47%
royal: 35%
none: 15%

Ifop poll

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

Debat

Best performance

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal :39%
did not say: 8%

Sofres poll

Sarkozy: 54,5% (+2,5)
Royal: 45,5% (-2,5)

Bva poll

Sarkozy: 55% (+3)
Royal: 45% (-3)


THE GAME IS OVER
« Last Edit: May 05, 2007, 06:41:27 am by Umengus »Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2007, 06:43:17 am »
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Quote from: Umengus on May 05, 2007, 06:35:14 am
extreme left voters:

Royal 64% (-2)
Sarkozy: 21% (+8)
abstention: 15% (-6)
Ouch. What's happening here?
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« Reply #89 on: May 05, 2007, 07:00:31 am »
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Quote from: Lewis Trondheim on May 05, 2007, 06:43:17 am
Quote from: Umengus on May 05, 2007, 06:35:14 am
extreme left voters:

Royal 64% (-2)
Sarkozy: 21% (+8)
abstention: 15% (-6)
Ouch. What's happening here?

extreme left voters are difficult to poll. same for FN voters and Bayrou voters.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Hashemite
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« Reply #90 on: May 05, 2007, 09:05:34 am »
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I predict Sarkozy with 55% of the vote around there.
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« Reply #91 on: May 05, 2007, 09:47:11 am »
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Hmm...I'll say 54.6% for Sarkozy, 45.4% for Royal.
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« Reply #92 on: May 05, 2007, 11:22:25 am »
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57.2% for Sarkozy. 42.8% for Royal.
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Colin
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« Reply #93 on: May 05, 2007, 11:38:14 am »
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Quote from: Gov. Bacon King on May 05, 2007, 11:22:25 am
57.2% for Sarkozy. 42.8% for Royal.

I'm going to say the floor for Royal is about 44% I would be very surpised if there was anything larger than a 55-45 victory for Sarko.
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« Reply #94 on: May 05, 2007, 12:02:11 pm »
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My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
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« Reply #95 on: May 05, 2007, 12:05:30 pm »
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Quote from: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2007, 12:02:11 pm
My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%

^^^^^
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Umengus
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« Reply #96 on: May 06, 2007, 05:37:56 am »
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Turnout at 12 am:

34,1% (31,21% 2 weeks ago)
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #97 on: May 06, 2007, 05:56:28 am »
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That high? No 55 for Sarkozy then.

EDIT: Although I just read that turnout was up 5 points in Guadeloupe and 3 in Guyane, but marginally down on the first round in Martinique, which voted for Royal. So maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means, after all.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2007, 06:27:50 am by The globe is my pony »Logged
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« Reply #98 on: May 06, 2007, 06:55:52 am »
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Quote from: The globe is my pony on May 06, 2007, 05:56:28 am
That high? No 55 for Sarkozy then.

EDIT: Although I just read that turnout was up 5 points in Guadeloupe and 3 in Guyane, but marginally down on the first round in Martinique, which voted for Royal. So maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means, after all.

Sarkozy did good in guyane and guadeloupe. Wait and see.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
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« Reply #99 on: May 06, 2007, 08:17:57 am »
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Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?
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