Home 2012 Election Results Election Info Weblog Wiki Search Email Site Info Store

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2013, 08:02:37 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Sibboleth)
| | |-+  French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 Print
Author Topic: French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread  (Read 70067 times)
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1936
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #100 on: May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 am »
Ignore
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 08:17:57 am
Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)
Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #101 on: May 06, 2007, 10:07:46 am »
Ignore
Turnout was 75.11% @ 5pm. About 1% higher than in the 1st round 2 weeks ago.
Logged
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10689


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #102 on: May 06, 2007, 10:10:13 am »
Ignore
Quote from: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2007, 12:02:11 pm
My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%

Interesting.

We both agree exactly.

In the first round, you, Dave, and I were tied as the three most accurate predictors.

Haven't seen Dave with a prediction in the final yet.

Should be interesting.
Logged
Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 53015
Norway


View Profile WWW
« Reply #103 on: May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am »
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.
Logged
'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
Ghyl Tarvoke
Gully Foyle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9933
Ireland, Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #104 on: May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 am »
Ignore
Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)
Logged

Quote from: Liveline On Séan Quinn
These are ordinary people Joe, he just wanted to buy a bank
Quote from: Some guy on Facebook
Guess it's a question of perspective & choice of narrative method ...

... and that, by the way, is also one of the reasons why none of Eric Hobsbawm's books has been turned into a succesful Broadway musical so far.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49376


View Profile
« Reply #105 on: May 06, 2007, 10:23:41 am »
Ignore
***Attention Americans following this election - C-SPAN will be broadcasting France 24's coverage of the election from 2 - 5 PM EST***
Logged


Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10689


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #106 on: May 06, 2007, 10:27:07 am »
Ignore
Quote from: Umengus on May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 08:17:57 am
Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?
Logged
Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #107 on: May 06, 2007, 10:28:55 am »
Ignore
Quote from: Gully Foyle on May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 am
Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley
Logged
Ghyl Tarvoke
Gully Foyle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9933
Ireland, Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #108 on: May 06, 2007, 10:32:04 am »
Ignore
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 10:28:55 am
Quote from: Gully Foyle on May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 am
Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley

Merci. Smiley
Logged

Quote from: Liveline On Séan Quinn
These are ordinary people Joe, he just wanted to buy a bank
Quote from: Some guy on Facebook
Guess it's a question of perspective & choice of narrative method ...

... and that, by the way, is also one of the reasons why none of Eric Hobsbawm's books has been turned into a succesful Broadway musical so far.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #109 on: May 06, 2007, 10:37:23 am »
Ignore
RTBF, a Belgian TV channel has a first (unofficial) 5pm estimate:

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

http://evenement.rtbf.be/

Closer than I thought ...
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1936
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #110 on: May 06, 2007, 10:39:50 am »
Ignore
too early. Wait estimations.
Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1936
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2007, 10:44:37 am »
Ignore
Quote from: CARLHAYDEN on May 06, 2007, 10:27:07 am
Quote from: Umengus on May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 08:17:57 am
Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)



Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?



I'm not sure to understand well your question but Sarkozy does very good amongst old people.

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8427.asp
Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #112 on: May 06, 2007, 10:51:11 am »
Ignore
LeSoir (Belgian Newspaper) reports 54% for Sarkozy.

http://www.lesoir.be/

TSR (Switzerland) reports 53-54% for Sarkozy.

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #113 on: May 06, 2007, 10:53:21 am »
Ignore
86% Total Turnout Estimate

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #114 on: May 06, 2007, 10:59:16 am »
Ignore
SF (Swiss TV) reports Sarkozy won with 53-55%.

http://tagesschau.sf.tv/nachrichten/archiv/2007/05/06/international/sarkozy_klar_vor_royal
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1936
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #115 on: May 06, 2007, 11:14:41 am »
Ignore
rtbf: Sarkozy: 53,5% Royal: 46,7%
bva: Sarkozy: 54% Royal: 46%
Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #116 on: May 06, 2007, 11:24:44 am »
Ignore
It is likely now that Sarkozy gets more than 20 Million votes ...
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1936
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #117 on: May 06, 2007, 11:33:05 am »
Ignore
Le soir: exit polls give between 53% and 56% for sarkozy
Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 53015
Norway


View Profile WWW
« Reply #118 on: May 06, 2007, 11:34:32 am »
When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)
Logged
'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
afleitch
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20136


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #119 on: May 06, 2007, 12:04:25 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 11:34:32 am
When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)

7 over here I think
Logged
All hail the mighty Apollon, god of the sun
True Democrat
true democrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

View Profile
« Reply #120 on: May 06, 2007, 01:01:49 pm »
Ignore
SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

53%, a little closer than expected
Logged
Michael Bloomberg for President.



Lol Winfield.  This quote is from a thread entitled "what do the following proceed to do if they are not nominated?"
Quote from: Tammany Hall Republican on January 07, 2008, 11:45:07 pm
Romney - President of Harvard
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27978


Political Matrix
E: 2.84, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #121 on: May 06, 2007, 01:02:55 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

After Royal's recent actions, I really couldn't see Sarkozy below 52% (probably not 53% either).  The real question in my mind was whether he could break 55%.  I still stand by my 54.4% prediction, though.
Logged
Boris
boris78
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6725
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -4.52

P
View Profile WWW
« Reply #122 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:21 pm »
Ignore
Yahoo.fr is projecting a 53-47 margin. About as expected.
Logged
Quote from: opebo on April 26, 2013, 01:46:24 pm
I suppose you think they should just hump a pillow and think of England.
Hashemite
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30148
Paraguay


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30


View Profile WWW
« Reply #123 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:48 pm »
Ignore
SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Segolene to Poitou!
Logged


Quote
20:12   oakvale   Taylor Swift's 22 was originally titled 75 in reference to her ex Flanby's proposed tax rate

Quote
20:49   Snowstalker   yes, but i'm the kind of fascist who would have backed the allies
20:57   Snowstalker   sadly, it's a legitimate ideology tarnished by the incompetent mussolini and the vile hitler
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49376


View Profile
« Reply #124 on: May 06, 2007, 01:05:20 pm »
Ignore
Vive Sarkozy! I guess Royal wasn't "hot" enough for France, BRTD.

I loved that corny countdown they had before they could declare Sarko the winner. Amazing how quickly they know the winner.
Logged


Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.18 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
Forums Directory