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Author Topic: French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread  (Read 70136 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #100 on: May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 am »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 08:17:57 am
Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
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« Reply #101 on: May 06, 2007, 10:07:46 am »
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Turnout was 75.11% @ 5pm. About 1% higher than in the 1st round 2 weeks ago.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #102 on: May 06, 2007, 10:10:13 am »
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Quote from: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2007, 12:02:11 pm
My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%

Interesting.

We both agree exactly.

In the first round, you, Dave, and I were tied as the three most accurate predictors.

Haven't seen Dave with a prediction in the final yet.

Should be interesting.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #103 on: May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am »
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.
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Gully Foyle
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« Reply #104 on: May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 am »
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Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)
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Quote from: Liveline On Séan Quinn
These are ordinary people Joe, he just wanted to buy a bank
Quote from: Some guy on Facebook
Guess it's a question of perspective & choice of narrative method ...

... and that, by the way, is also one of the reasons why none of Eric Hobsbawm's books has been turned into a succesful Broadway musical so far.
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« Reply #105 on: May 06, 2007, 10:23:41 am »
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***Attention Americans following this election - C-SPAN will be broadcasting France 24's coverage of the election from 2 - 5 PM EST***
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #106 on: May 06, 2007, 10:27:07 am »
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Quote from: Umengus on May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 08:17:57 am
Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #107 on: May 06, 2007, 10:28:55 am »
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Quote from: Gully Foyle on May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 am
Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley
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Gully Foyle
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« Reply #108 on: May 06, 2007, 10:32:04 am »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 10:28:55 am
Quote from: Gully Foyle on May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 am
Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley

Merci. Smiley
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Quote from: Liveline On Séan Quinn
These are ordinary people Joe, he just wanted to buy a bank
Quote from: Some guy on Facebook
Guess it's a question of perspective & choice of narrative method ...

... and that, by the way, is also one of the reasons why none of Eric Hobsbawm's books has been turned into a succesful Broadway musical so far.
Tender Branson
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« Reply #109 on: May 06, 2007, 10:37:23 am »
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RTBF, a Belgian TV channel has a first (unofficial) 5pm estimate:

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

http://evenement.rtbf.be/

Closer than I thought ...
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Umengus
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« Reply #110 on: May 06, 2007, 10:39:50 am »
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too early. Wait estimations.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Umengus
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« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2007, 10:44:37 am »
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Quote from: CARLHAYDEN on May 06, 2007, 10:27:07 am
Quote from: Umengus on May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 am
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 06, 2007, 08:17:57 am
Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)



Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?



I'm not sure to understand well your question but Sarkozy does very good amongst old people.

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8427.asp
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
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« Reply #112 on: May 06, 2007, 10:51:11 am »
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LeSoir (Belgian Newspaper) reports 54% for Sarkozy.

http://www.lesoir.be/

TSR (Switzerland) reports 53-54% for Sarkozy.

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #113 on: May 06, 2007, 10:53:21 am »
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86% Total Turnout Estimate

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #114 on: May 06, 2007, 10:59:16 am »
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SF (Swiss TV) reports Sarkozy won with 53-55%.

http://tagesschau.sf.tv/nachrichten/archiv/2007/05/06/international/sarkozy_klar_vor_royal
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Umengus
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« Reply #115 on: May 06, 2007, 11:14:41 am »
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rtbf: Sarkozy: 53,5% Royal: 46,7%
bva: Sarkozy: 54% Royal: 46%
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.23, S: -5.39

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« Reply #116 on: May 06, 2007, 11:24:44 am »
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It is likely now that Sarkozy gets more than 20 Million votes ...
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Umengus
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« Reply #117 on: May 06, 2007, 11:33:05 am »
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Le soir: exit polls give between 53% and 56% for sarkozy
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Sibboleth
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« Reply #118 on: May 06, 2007, 11:34:32 am »
When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)
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afleitch
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« Reply #119 on: May 06, 2007, 12:04:25 pm »
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Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 11:34:32 am
When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)

7 over here I think
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True Democrat
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« Reply #120 on: May 06, 2007, 01:01:49 pm »
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SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

53%, a little closer than expected
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #121 on: May 06, 2007, 01:02:55 pm »
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Quote from: Free Alan! on May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am
It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

After Royal's recent actions, I really couldn't see Sarkozy below 52% (probably not 53% either).  The real question in my mind was whether he could break 55%.  I still stand by my 54.4% prediction, though.
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Boris
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« Reply #122 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:21 pm »
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Yahoo.fr is projecting a 53-47 margin. About as expected.
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« Reply #123 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:48 pm »
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SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Segolene to Poitou!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #124 on: May 06, 2007, 01:05:20 pm »
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Vive Sarkozy! I guess Royal wasn't "hot" enough for France, BRTD.

I loved that corny countdown they had before they could declare Sarko the winner. Amazing how quickly they know the winner.
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