French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread
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  French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread
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Author Topic: French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread  (Read 93645 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #100 on: May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 AM »

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #101 on: May 06, 2007, 10:07:46 AM »

Turnout was 75.11% @ 5pm. About 1% higher than in the 1st round 2 weeks ago.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #102 on: May 06, 2007, 10:10:13 AM »

My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%

Interesting.

We both agree exactly.

In the first round, you, Dave, and I were tied as the three most accurate predictors.

Haven't seen Dave with a prediction in the final yet.

Should be interesting.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #103 on: May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 AM »

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #104 on: May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 AM »

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #105 on: May 06, 2007, 10:23:41 AM »

***Attention Americans following this election - C-SPAN will be broadcasting France 24's coverage of the election from 2 - 5 PM EST***
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #106 on: May 06, 2007, 10:27:07 AM »

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #107 on: May 06, 2007, 10:28:55 AM »

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #108 on: May 06, 2007, 10:32:04 AM »

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley

Merci. Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #109 on: May 06, 2007, 10:37:23 AM »

RTBF, a Belgian TV channel has a first (unofficial) 5pm estimate:

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

http://evenement.rtbf.be/

Closer than I thought ...
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Umengus
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« Reply #110 on: May 06, 2007, 10:39:50 AM »

too early. Wait estimations.
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Umengus
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« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2007, 10:44:37 AM »

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)



Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?



I'm not sure to understand well your question but Sarkozy does very good amongst old people.

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8427.asp
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #112 on: May 06, 2007, 10:51:11 AM »

LeSoir (Belgian Newspaper) reports 54% for Sarkozy.

http://www.lesoir.be/

TSR (Switzerland) reports 53-54% for Sarkozy.

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #113 on: May 06, 2007, 10:53:21 AM »

86% Total Turnout Estimate

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #114 on: May 06, 2007, 10:59:16 AM »

SF (Swiss TV) reports Sarkozy won with 53-55%.

http://tagesschau.sf.tv/nachrichten/archiv/2007/05/06/international/sarkozy_klar_vor_royal
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Umengus
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« Reply #115 on: May 06, 2007, 11:14:41 AM »

rtbf: Sarkozy: 53,5% Royal: 46,7%
bva: Sarkozy: 54% Royal: 46%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #116 on: May 06, 2007, 11:24:44 AM »

It is likely now that Sarkozy gets more than 20 Million votes ...
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Umengus
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« Reply #117 on: May 06, 2007, 11:33:05 AM »

Le soir: exit polls give between 53% and 56% for sarkozy
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #118 on: May 06, 2007, 11:34:32 AM »

When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)
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afleitch
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« Reply #119 on: May 06, 2007, 12:04:25 PM »

When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)

7 over here I think
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True Democrat
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« Reply #120 on: May 06, 2007, 01:01:49 PM »

SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

53%, a little closer than expected
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #121 on: May 06, 2007, 01:02:55 PM »

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

After Royal's recent actions, I really couldn't see Sarkozy below 52% (probably not 53% either).  The real question in my mind was whether he could break 55%.  I still stand by my 54.4% prediction, though.
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Boris
boris78
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« Reply #122 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:21 PM »

Yahoo.fr is projecting a 53-47 margin. About as expected.
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Hash
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« Reply #123 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:48 PM »

SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Segolene to Poitou!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #124 on: May 06, 2007, 01:05:20 PM »

Vive Sarkozy! I guess Royal wasn't "hot" enough for France, BRTD.

I loved that corny countdown they had before they could declare Sarko the winner. Amazing how quickly they know the winner.

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