Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 21, 2014, 11:41:46 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hashemite)
| | |-+  French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 Print
Author Topic: French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread  (Read 72956 times)
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1952
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #100 on: May 06, 2007, 08:40:07 am »
Ignore

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)
Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35215
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #101 on: May 06, 2007, 10:07:46 am »
Ignore

Turnout was 75.11% @ 5pm. About 1% higher than in the 1st round 2 weeks ago.
Logged
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #102 on: May 06, 2007, 10:10:13 am »
Ignore

My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%

Interesting.

We both agree exactly.

In the first round, you, Dave, and I were tied as the three most accurate predictors.

Haven't seen Dave with a prediction in the final yet.

Should be interesting.
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57217
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #103 on: May 06, 2007, 10:12:05 am »
Ignore

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.
Logged

Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11643
Ireland, Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #104 on: May 06, 2007, 10:14:16 am »
Ignore

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)
Logged



Quote
Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52643


View Profile
« Reply #105 on: May 06, 2007, 10:23:41 am »
Ignore

***Attention Americans following this election - C-SPAN will be broadcasting France 24's coverage of the election from 2 - 5 PM EST***
Logged


Never any doubt.
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #106 on: May 06, 2007, 10:27:07 am »
Ignore

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?

Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35215
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #107 on: May 06, 2007, 10:28:55 am »
Ignore

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11643
Ireland, Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #108 on: May 06, 2007, 10:32:04 am »
Ignore

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

That's what it looks like.

I'm still hoping on a shock Royal win though.

(When are the results announced - 9:00?)

In half an hour (unofficial Swiss/Belgian TV estimates) and then in 2.5 hours (official French Exit polls and projections) Smiley

Merci. Smiley
Logged



Quote
Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
As I have noted before 'paradigm shift' is an anagram of 'grasp dim faith'
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35215
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #109 on: May 06, 2007, 10:37:23 am »
Ignore

RTBF, a Belgian TV channel has a first (unofficial) 5pm estimate:

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

http://evenement.rtbf.be/

Closer than I thought ...
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1952
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #110 on: May 06, 2007, 10:39:50 am »
Ignore

too early. Wait estimations.
Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1952
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2007, 10:44:37 am »
Ignore

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)



Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?



I'm not sure to understand well your question but Sarkozy does very good amongst old people.

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8427.asp
Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35215
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #112 on: May 06, 2007, 10:51:11 am »
Ignore

LeSoir (Belgian Newspaper) reports 54% for Sarkozy.

http://www.lesoir.be/

TSR (Switzerland) reports 53-54% for Sarkozy.

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35215
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #113 on: May 06, 2007, 10:53:21 am »
Ignore

86% Total Turnout Estimate

http://tsr.blogs.com/info/
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35215
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #114 on: May 06, 2007, 10:59:16 am »
Ignore

SF (Swiss TV) reports Sarkozy won with 53-55%.

http://tagesschau.sf.tv/nachrichten/archiv/2007/05/06/international/sarkozy_klar_vor_royal
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1952
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #115 on: May 06, 2007, 11:14:41 am »
Ignore

rtbf: Sarkozy: 53,5% Royal: 46,7%
bva: Sarkozy: 54% Royal: 46%
Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35215
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #116 on: May 06, 2007, 11:24:44 am »
Ignore

It is likely now that Sarkozy gets more than 20 Million votes ...
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1952
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #117 on: May 06, 2007, 11:33:05 am »
Ignore

Le soir: exit polls give between 53% and 56% for sarkozy
Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57217
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #118 on: May 06, 2007, 11:34:32 am »
Ignore

When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)
Logged

afleitch
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22127


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #119 on: May 06, 2007, 12:04:25 pm »
Ignore

When do we get the "official" numbers? U.K time? (I can't seem to remember when it was a few weeks ago... 8 o clock, right?)

7 over here I think
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7485
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

View Profile
« Reply #120 on: May 06, 2007, 01:01:49 pm »
Ignore

SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

53%, a little closer than expected
Logged

Michael Bloomberg for President.



Lol Winfield.  This quote is from a thread entitled "what do the following proceed to do if they are not nominated?"
Romney - President of Harvard
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #121 on: May 06, 2007, 01:02:55 pm »
Ignore

It'll either be surprisingly close, or Sarkozy will win by a larger than expected margin.

After Royal's recent actions, I really couldn't see Sarkozy below 52% (probably not 53% either).  The real question in my mind was whether he could break 55%.  I still stand by my 54.4% prediction, though.
Logged
Boris
boris78
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7027
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -4.52

P
View Profile WWW
« Reply #122 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:21 pm »
Ignore

Yahoo.fr is projecting a 53-47 margin. About as expected.
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31605
Colombia


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30


View Profile WWW
« Reply #123 on: May 06, 2007, 01:04:48 pm »

SARKOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Segolene to Poitou!
Logged


Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52643


View Profile
« Reply #124 on: May 06, 2007, 01:05:20 pm »
Ignore

Vive Sarkozy! I guess Royal wasn't "hot" enough for France, BRTD.

I loved that corny countdown they had before they could declare Sarko the winner. Amazing how quickly they know the winner.

Logged


Never any doubt.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines