French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread

[Verily]

Royal is pulling ever so slightly closer in the polls. I don't think she can pull off a victory, but it's looking slightly less unlikely now. After all, there were clearly once a majority of the French who supported her over Sarkozy (back in January), so the potential at least exists.

[Verily]

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

Ipsos's polls for the 28th and 29th had it at 52.5-47.5, a hair closer (which was the narrowing I was referring to).

[Verily]

Link? That may be big news. Most of the ones who would ignore Le Pen probably voted for Sarkozy in the first round anyway (the ones who voted Le Pen in 2002 and Sarkozy in 2007).

[Verily]

Meh. Better Sarkozy than Royal, I suppose. If I lived in France, I would be one of the 15% who didn't vote. Talk about two terrible candidates.

[Verily]

Royal was surprisingly strong in Brittany and overseas despite losing.

[Verily]

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-906398@51-906165,0.html

According to Le Monde, Sarkozy plans to appoint a new prime minister on May 19 or 20 to prepare for the legislatives in June. Who would be the most likely candidate, François Fillon?

I think that the UMP is most likely to have a majority in June, but what if they don't? Is it completely unimaginable to see the UMP fall short of 50%, with the rest divided among the UDF and the PS? In that case, what would happen? Would the UMP and the UDF form a coalition (all of the UDF deputies supported Sarkozy during the second round), or would there be a deadlock between the UMP and the PS? If there is a deadlock, would it be possible for Bayrou to emerge as a compromise candidate?

With France moving closer to a three-party system, I think the next few elections will be very interesting...

Bayrou will not be running with the UDF; some of the current UDFers will probably join the UMP while others will follow him. His new party is the MD (Democratic Movement).

There apparently already was a tiny Parti Democrate in France, so Bayrou's new party is the Mouvement Democrate.

[Verily]

Bayrou will not be running with the UDF; some of the current UDFers will probably join the UMP while others will follow him. His new party is the MD (Democratic Movement).

There apparently already was a tiny Parti Democrate in France, so Bayrou's new party is the Mouvement Democrate.

Right, Bayrou is creating a Mouvement Démocrate, but when? Does he have the time to establish a new party before June 10? I figured that he would stick to the UDF for now and create the MD during the months after the legislatives.

Either way, whether it runs under the banner of the UDF or the MD, I feel that the center might deny the UMP a majority in June (although the legislatives usually mirror the presidential results), in which case it would effectively decide who gets to form the government.

I would expect the announcement within the next week. He probably wanted to wait until after the Presidential election in order to avoid the announcement being drowned out by Sarkozy and Royal.

[Verily]

If the polls are any indication, Sarkozy will struggle to get a majority:

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070506-sondage-soir-du-vote-les-francais-et-l-apres-presidentielle.htm


Will vote for...
Far left (various): 3%
Left (PS): 33%
Center (MD): 15%
Right (UMP): 37%
Far right (FN): 8%
Unsure: 4%