French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread

[Umengus]

Bayrou is not so smart: democratic party in french is "parti démocratique", initials PD. PD is a very used insult in French (to say gay). You can image jokes on it... In Belgium, a guy had the same idea but before this problem, changed his mind.

For the second turn, I predict a solid victory for Sarkozy, by 53,4%. No polls have given a Royal win for january. Her only chance is to have a very very good report from the far left votes, a very good penetration in the Bayrou vote (65% at least) and a bad report of the FN votes on Sarkozy. Probably of this scenario: weak.

[Umengus]

Bayrou is not so smart: democratic party in french is "parti démocratique", initials PD. PD is a very used insult in French (to say gay). You can image jokes on it... In Belgium, a guy had the same idea but before this problem, changed his mind.

For the second turn, I predict a solid victory for Sarkozy, by 53,4%. No polls have given a Royal win for january. Her only chance is to have a very very good report from the far left votes, a very good penetration in the Bayrou vote (65% at least) and a bad report of the FN votes on Sarkozy. Probably of this scenario: weak.

A couple of questions for you as you appear to be particularly knowledgeable about French politicis:

1). Do you anticipate that the turnout will be significantly down in the final from the first round?

2.) Does Royal have the problem of, as the Brits would put it, "falling between two stools" by trying to round up the votes of the lefties and simultaneously appealing to the Bayrou voters?

1) Polls say that turnout should lower than the first round (80%). Some far left and far right voters should not vote.

2) Not really, because the far left vote is weak. Royal tries not really to catch the far left vote (just the minimum), she tries to catch the Bayrou vote but she will fail I think because in the bayrou vote, you have center-left people who were not happy with the royal's incompetence and they will vote royal at the second turn but you have also the "udf voters", who are at right (more conservative than an ump voter but more left on economy. But not great difference). The game is to know the proportion of both in the 18,5%. 50% 50% maybe. Not enough for Royal.

During the sunday meeting, Sarkozy has not tried to tend to the center. He stays on his values, bashing "may 1968", the cause of all problems in France. And one more time, it's Sarkozy who decides the agenda. For now, this guy is probably the best candidate, the best politician, the best communicator  that I have seen in my short life.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

the best pollster for the 1st run.

Royal :46,5% (-0,5%)
Sarkozy: 53,5% (+0,5)

15% refuse to say.

Bayrou voters (difficult at polled): royal: 36% (-5)
                                                     Sarkozy: 37% (+5)
                                                      Abstention: 27%

extreme left: Royal: 70% (-4)
                     Sarkozy: 8% (-2)
                     Abstention: 22% (+6)

Le pen voters: Royal: 9% (-6)
                        Sarkozy: 57% (-4)
                        Abstention: 34% (+10)

 

[Umengus]

Royal was very "agressive" and Sarkozy was very "wise", "zen". People waited the opposite. Hence, suprise is the dominant feeling.

the last "emotional breakdown" in the end of the debate was superficial because it's just not the reality.

Opinion way poll (well, not the best: a scientif web poll, for the figaro, conservative newspaper)

wich candidate was the most convincing?
Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 31%
none of both: 15%

 http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/opinionway_03_05.pdf

[Umengus]

'Tis a shame that the Socialist Party, which ahd such potential coming into this race, has been slapped in the face by an incompetent candidate who has essentially ruined them for the next year at least. This was thier chance!

Aaaaarrrrrrggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Royal was the best candidate for the ps. She was nomitad because polls showed she was the best to beat Sarkozy. I think that Fabius and Strauss kahn would have make worse.

[Umengus]

Last polls, all after the debate.

Ipsos poll

Sarkozy: 55 % (+1)
royal: 45% (- 1)

Are your sure?

royal voters: 89% (-2)
Sarkozy voter: 93% (+5)

Bayrou voters:

Royal 35% (=)
Sarkozy: 36% (+1)
abstention: 29% (-1)

Le Pen voters:

Royal: 9% (-5)
Sarkozy: 70% (+12)
abstention: 21% (-7)

extreme left voters:

Royal 64% (-2)
Sarkozy: 21% (+8)
abstention: 15% (-6)

CSA poll

Royal: 47% (-1)
Sarkozy: 53% (+1)

Turnout: 80%

Debate

most convincing

Sarkozy: 47%
royal: 35%
none: 15%

Ifop poll

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal: 47%

Debat

Best performance

Sarkozy: 53%
Royal :39%
did not say: 8%

Sofres poll

Sarkozy: 54,5% (+2,5)
Royal: 45,5% (-2,5)

Bva poll

Sarkozy: 55% (+3)
Royal: 45% (-3)


THE GAME IS OVER

[Umengus]

extreme left voters:

Royal 64% (-2)
Sarkozy: 21% (+8)
abstention: 15% (-6)

Ouch. What's happening here?

extreme left voters are difficult to poll. same for FN voters and Bayrou voters.

[Umengus]

Turnout at 12 am:

34,1% (31,21% 2 weeks ago)

[Umengus]

That high? No 55 for Sarkozy then.

EDIT: Although I just read that turnout was up 5 points in Guadeloupe and 3 in Guyane, but marginally down on the first round in Martinique, which voted for Royal. So maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means, after all.

Sarkozy did good in guyane and guadeloupe. Wait and see.

[Umengus]

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

[Umengus]

too early. Wait estimations.

[Umengus]

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?

I'm not sure to understand well your question but Sarkozy does very good amongst old people.

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8427.asp

[Umengus]

rtbf: Sarkozy: 53,5% Royal: 46,7%
bva: Sarkozy: 54% Royal: 46%

[Umengus]

Le soir: exit polls give between 53% and 56% for sarkozy

[Umengus]

Based on final predictions and unofficial results

Tobias Beecher was first.

Sam Spade was second.

Phil and I shared third place.

Gustaf  and Lewis shared fourth.

Gabu was fifth.

Sarkozy was sixth.

Tender Branson was seventh.

Bacon King was eighth.

Couldn't find predictions for Umengus or Dave.

Everyone correctly predicted the winner, and most predictions were acceptably close to actual results.

I think that my prediction was 53,4%

To be honest, the prediction which was important was for the 1 turn.