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Author Topic: About McCain  (Read 1696 times)
Reaganfan
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« on: April 30, 2007, 02:15:13 PM »

How come a year ago democrats loved him, but now hate him?

How come he is gaining in GOP Primary polls yet democrats continue to say his campaign is a sinking ship?

How come in a time of war, the most experienced candidate to handle war is disliked by many anti-war democrats?

Thank you for answering these.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2007, 02:17:31 PM »

How come I only got two hour's sleep last night, while you clearly had more?
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2007, 02:18:55 PM »

How come I only got two hour's sleep last night, while you clearly had more?

I'm sorry??
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2007, 02:27:13 PM »

It's as good a question as any you have here. Now answer it, sir. Why? Personally I blame McCain. Damn him. Damn all of them. Let's face it, sir, you just don't have any good answers to my perfectly logical (and well timed I feel) question. And what does that say about you? Or the state of Ohio? Do people from Ohio normally sleep for long periods of time? Perhaps you all hibernate? Or maybe, just maybe, that's just a ploy! Yes; your evil plans are safe with me because I don't know what they are!
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MODU
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2007, 02:31:00 PM »



McCain's problem is that his "humor" is too easy to use against him, for starters.  Secondly, he worked hard to be a maverick to the point where he alienated some of his own potential base while at the same time tries to be too conservative which hurts his potential with democrats.  If he will just be himself and pick a particular path to walk down, he could do ok in the primaries.  However, he's currently setting himself up to fall.

Of course, this is also without Newt and Fred officially in the race, so that too will hang over his head for a while.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2007, 02:32:24 PM »


Examples?
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Gabu
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2007, 02:43:02 PM »

How come a year ago democrats loved him, but now hate him?

It was further back than a year ago, but he has changed his positions on numerous issues to attract the support of the Religious Right.  When politicians change their positions, normal people change their impressions of them.

How come he is gaining in GOP Primary polls yet democrats continue to say his campaign is a sinking ship?

Giuliani's lead is in the double-digits and McCain is almost losing even his home state.  I can't find a single poll in which McCain has led, nor can I really find a single poll that shows McCain has gained in any significant manner.

How come in a time of war, the most experienced candidate to handle war is disliked by many anti-war democrats?

Given the fact that Clinton and Obama top the Democratic primary and that Giuliani tops the Republican primary, it seems rather evident to me that experience is not the voters' primary concern.
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MODU
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« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2007, 03:14:26 PM »


You mean you don't remember this touching moment? 



McCain was SO embarrassed.  See?  His little head turned red and everything. Tongue
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2007, 03:16:19 PM »


It was further back than a year ago, but he has changed his positions on numerous issues to attract the support of the Religious Right.  When politicians change their positions, normal people change their impressions of them.

Not really. I remember many democrats all throughout 2006 making statements to the effect of "John McCain is a great man who will bring our country together...but he would never be nominated." Now, he stands a decent shot, and suddenly they change their view on him?

Giuliani's lead is in the double-digits and McCain is almost losing even his home state.  I can't find a single poll in which McCain has led, nor can I really find a single poll that shows McCain has gained in any significant manner.

National polls don't mean crap. I could be leading Colin Wixted by 15 pts in a national poll and lose Iowa, NH, and SC and with it Colin wins. It's what's going on in the individual states. For example, while Obama is gaining on Hillary in national polls, the only real primary state he beats Hillary in is Illinois, while in some others he is closing in. Same with Rudy vs. McCain. Rudy may be leading McCain nationally, but McCain is tied with Rudy in Iowa, leading in New Hampshire and in South Carolina. If McCain ended up winning all those, he may get the type of push that Kerry did in 2004 and end up sweeping Feb 5th. Of course, it's all bull right now...2008 is the key.

Given the fact that Clinton and Obama top the Democratic primary and that Giuliani tops the Republican primary, it seems rather evident to me that experience is not the voters' primary concern.

Well, I think Giuliani has experience, as does Hillary. Obama doesn't.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2007, 03:20:24 PM »


Not really. I remember many democrats all throughout 2006 making statements to the effect of "John McCain is a great man who will bring our country together...but he would never be nominated." Now, he stands a decent shot, and suddenly they change their view on him?

The last time I remember hearing that was mid-2004, Naso.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2007, 03:27:06 PM »

It was further back than a year ago, but he has changed his positions on numerous issues to attract the support of the Religious Right.  When politicians change their positions, normal people change their impressions of them.

Not really. I remember many democrats all throughout 2006 making statements to the effect of "John McCain is a great man who will bring our country together...but he would never be nominated." Now, he stands a decent shot, and suddenly they change their view on him?

Did it occur to you that while John McCain was busy shedding his image as a moderate 'maverick' in order to try and drum up support from the GOP faithful, that his reputation among Democrats might take a tumble as a result?
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2007, 03:48:20 PM »

Not really. I remember many democrats all throughout 2006 making statements to the effect of "John McCain is a great man who will bring our country together...but he would never be nominated." Now, he stands a decent shot, and suddenly they change their view on him?

I challenge you to find one single instance of a Democrat on this board praising McCain after he started to change his positions.

National polls don't mean crap. I could be leading Colin Wixted by 15 pts in a national poll and lose Iowa, NH, and SC and with it Colin wins. It's what's going on in the individual states. For example, while Obama is gaining on Hillary in national polls, the only real primary state he beats Hillary in is Illinois, while in some others he is closing in. Same with Rudy vs. McCain. Rudy may be leading McCain nationally, but McCain is tied with Rudy in Iowa, leading in New Hampshire and in South Carolina. If McCain ended up winning all those, he may get the type of push that Kerry did in 2004 and end up sweeping Feb 5th. Of course, it's all bull right now...2008 is the key.

Okay, well, let's look at polls from those states and see how McCain is gaining.

Iowa

Feb. 3:

Giuliani: 27%
McCain: 22%

Apr. 4:

Giuliani: 25%
McCain: 20%

New Hampshire

Feb. 2:

McCain: 27%
Giuliani: 20%

Apr. 4:

McCain: 29%
Giuliani: 29%

South Carolina

Feb. 7:

McCain: 29%
Giuliani: 20%

Apr. 8:

Giuliani: 26%
McCain: 25%

Between the start of February and the start of April, McCain has dropped in all three of the states you mentioned, except for New Hampshire, but there Giuliani has gained enough that the net effect is still McCain losing ground.  Where is the evidence that McCain is gaining?  Every shred of evidence I can find points in the opposite direction.

Well, I think Giuliani has experience, as does Hillary. Obama doesn't.

But the fact remains that people are supporting someone who spent eight years as mayor and who has no other political experience over your John McCain.  Rudy Giuliani just happened to be mayor of NYC (and not a very well-liked one beforehand) at the time of the 9/11 attacks, which caused him to be seen as "America's Mayor".  It's no real secret that the general public (of any country) cannot be trusted to form coherent and well-thought out reasons for supporting a candidate.  If a candidate looks and sounds good, that candidate gets people's support.  Your average Joe doesn't particularly care about experience.  That's just the way things go.
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2007, 03:52:54 PM »

How come a year ago democrats loved him, but now hate him?  His recent pandering to the religious right, for instance his flipflopping three times in two days about gay marriage.

How come he is gaining in GOP Primary polls yet democrats continue to say his campaign is a sinking ship? I personaly think a McCain presidency would be a godsend to the Democrats.

How come in a time of war, the most experienced candidate to handle war is disliked by many anti-war democrats? Sitting in the Hanoi Hilton makes him a better potential war leader?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2007, 04:07:58 PM »

Between the start of February and the start of April, McCain has dropped in all three of the states you mentioned, except for New Hampshire, but there Giuliani has gained enough that the net effect is still McCain losing ground.  Where is the evidence that McCain is gaining?  Every shred of evidence I can find points in the opposite direction.

You've chosen polls that happen to make it look like a bigger gain for Giuliani than there really is.  Not saying you've done this intentionally, but, for example, in NH, your early Feb. poll happens to be the poll that gives McCain the biggest lead of any NH poll this year, which makes it look like McCain has lost more ground than if you look at all the polls.  In SC, there were two polls at the beginning of April that had Giuliani up by 1 point, but then there have been two more polls from later in the month that had McCain up again.

Honestly, I don't think there's really been all that much change in the Giuliani-McCain gap in the IA, NH, and SC polls all year.  IA and NH are consistently about a tie, maybe slight advantage Giuliani in IA and slight advantage McCain in NH.  SC has shown a slight McCain lead, except for those two polls from early April.  Not much change.

I think Naso is wrong that McCain has shown any real momentum in the early primary states, but he's never really been in much trouble in those states to begin with.  But I do think Naso is correct that the media largely ignores the fact that McCain is in much better shape in the early primary states than he is nationally.  But I don't think that's because of any anti-McCain bias.  It's because the media has a superficial understanding of the primary campaign horserace, and evaluates the state of the race based almost solely on national polls, even though national polls are largely worthless.
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Gabu
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« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2007, 04:24:50 PM »

But I do think Naso is correct that the media largely ignores the fact that McCain is in much better shape in the early primary states than he is nationally.

Not disputing that, and you are right that the poll I got for NH happened to be the best one for Giuliani of the bunch (not intentional; I was just running down the list at the start and at the end and picking out the first poll I could see), but after looking at other polls, I still don't see any evidence of McCain gaining.  A better NH poll for Giuliani from February puts him behind only 27-28, but even then no gain has occurred for McCain.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2007, 04:30:18 PM »

But I do think Naso is correct that the media largely ignores the fact that McCain is in much better shape in the early primary states than he is nationally.

Not disputing that, and you are right that the poll I got for NH happened to be the best one for Giuliani of the bunch (not intentional; I was just running down the list at the start and at the end and picking out the first poll I could see), but after looking at other polls, I still don't see any evidence of McCain gaining.  A better NH poll for Giuliani from February puts him behind only 27-28, but even then no gain has occurred for McCain.

Yes, I agree with you.  I don't think there's been any noticeable gain for either of them.  The Giuliani-McCain gap (or rather, lack of a gap) in IA and NH has remained remarkably constant, even while there were some significant fluctuations in their national poll standings.
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