110th Special Elections

[Padfoot]

So far we already have 3 special elections occurring for the 110th Congress and we still have a year and a half to go before the next real election.  If we continue at the current pace we'll be announcing the need for another special election nearly once every month.  With the current amount of scandals surrounding many representatives and the old ages of many members of Congress I think it is very likely that we could continue at our current pace due to resignations, early retirements, and deaths.  According to Wikipedia (which has some very large gaps in what I am sure is a highly inaccurate record)  the 101st (1989-1991) set the record for most special elections with 12.  Three of those resulted in a party change.  Does anyone else think that the 110th could be the one to break or tie the record?

[Mr.Phips]

So far we already have 3 special elections occurring for the 110th Congress and we still have a year and a half to go before the next real election.  If we continue at the current pace we'll be announcing the need for another special election nearly once every month.  With the current amount of scandals surrounding many representatives and the old ages of many members of Congress I think it is very likely that we could continue at our current pace due to resignations, early retirements, and deaths.  According to Wikipedia (which has some very large gaps in what I am sure is a highly inaccurate record)  the 101st (1989-1991) set the record for most special elections with 12.  Three of those resulted in a party change.  Does anyone else think that the 110th could be the one to break or tie the record?

Its possible.

[Padfoot]

After further investigation into the matter here is a breakdown of the causes for the 12 special elections held during the 101st Congess:  5 members left the House for new positions, 3 resigned amid scandals, 2 died of natural causes, and in some sort of strange unfortunate coincidence 2 congressmen died in separate plane crashes in the same week of August 1989.

[Mr.Phips]

After further investigation into the matter here is a breakdown of the causes for the 12 special elections held during the 101st Congess:  5 members left the House for new positions, 3 resigned amid scandals, 2 died of natural causes, and in some sort of strange unfortunate coincidence 2 congressmen died in separate plane crashes in the same week of August 1989.

Mickey Leland of Texas and Larkin Smith of Mississippi both died in plane crashes.

Of the three districts that switched parties, two went from Rep to Dem(MS-05, IN-04) and one went from Dem to Rep(FL-18).

[Verily]

We have three open seats. It's looking likely that we'll get at least two more soon (Renzi and Doolittle) from resignations. A few other congressmen (Young and LoBiondo) have begun to be embroiled in Abramoffgate and may be forced to retire if things get worse for them. If Jindal is elected governor in Louisiana, that will trigger another special election. That's 8 special elections.

Then there is always the potential for deaths or unforeseen scandals and subsequent resignations. It is highly unlikely that anyone from Congress will consent to being appointed into Bush's cabinet, but there could be more people seeking university appointments or state offices as Meehan has.

None of the current open seats are in serious danger. The Democrats would stand a chance at Renzi's seat and LoBiondo's (which would easily be the most endangered seat up in a special election for a long time), and maybe at Doolittle's. Young is harder to say since Alaska is not particularly partisan.

[Keystone Phil]

None of the current open seats are in serious danger. The Democrats would stand a chance at Renzi's seat and LoBiondo's (which would easily be the most endangered seat up in a special election for a long time), and maybe at Doolittle's. Young is harder to say since Alaska is not particularly partisan.

LoBiondo's would be endangered due to the scandal and if a popular Dem like Van Drew or Whelan abandon their State Senate campaigns to run.

I think the Dems would definetley get Renzi's seat.

[Mr.Phips]

None of the current open seats are in serious danger. The Democrats would stand a chance at Renzi's seat and LoBiondo's (which would easily be the most endangered seat up in a special election for a long time), and maybe at Doolittle's. Young is harder to say since Alaska is not particularly partisan.

LoBiondo's would be endangered due to the scandal and if a popular Dem like Van Drew or Whelan abandon their State Senate campaigns to run.

I think the Dems would definetley get Renzi's seat.

They would almost certainly get LoBiondo's without him running.

[Padfoot]

I just found another instance in which we could be seeing a special election.  Two representatives from Pennsylvania are competing to be the Democratic nominee for the Philadelphia mayoral race.

[Verily]

I just found another instance in which we could be seeing a special election.  Two representatives from Pennsylvania are competing to be the Democratic nominee for the Philadelphia mayoral race.

According to Wikipedia, though, neither is likely to win the nomination. Both PA-01 and PA-02 are safe seats for the Democrats.

[bullmoose88]

I just found another instance in which we could be seeing a special election.  Two representatives from Pennsylvania are competing to be the Democratic nominee for the Philadelphia mayoral race.

Both PA-01 and PA-02 are safe seats for the Democrats.

Gigantic Understatement

[minionofmidas]

I just found another instance in which we could be seeing a special election.  Two representatives from Pennsylvania are competing to be the Democratic nominee for the Philadelphia mayoral race.

According to Wikipedia, though, neither is likely to win the nomination.

Still too early to say; that race is all over the place. Although both seem to have been declining in polls - perhaps just because they had higher initial name rec than some of their rivals.

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Brady's seat could make for a VERY interesting primary fight, though.

[Keystone Phil]

I just found another instance in which we could be seeing a special election.  Two representatives from Pennsylvania are competing to be the Democratic nominee for the Philadelphia mayoral race.

According to Wikipedia, though, neither is likely to win the nomination.

Still too early to say; that race is all over the place. Although both seem to have been declining in polls - perhaps just because they had higher initial name rec than some of their rivals.

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Brady's seat could make for a VERY interesting primary fight, though.

It's not over but Brady and Fattah are unlikely to win. Both seats could produce very interesting primary battles. I love the rivalries within the Democratic party in this city. 

[Bacon King]

According to Wikipedia (which has some very large gaps in what I am sure is a highly inaccurate record)  the 101st (1989-1991) set the record for most special elections with 12. 

The 71st Congress (1929-1931) actually has the record, with 27 special elections.

[Padfoot]

According to Wikipedia (which has some very large gaps in what I am sure is a highly inaccurate record)  the 101st (1989-1991) set the record for most special elections with 12.

The 71st Congress (1929-1931) actually has the record, with 27 special elections.

As you and I both noted, wiki is less than comprehensive in it's information on this topic.  May I ask where you did manage to find that number?  Also 27 special elections seems like an extremely large number.  Why were there so many?

[Bacon King]

According to Wikipedia (which has some very large gaps in what I am sure is a highly inaccurate record)  the 101st (1989-1991) set the record for most special elections with 12.

The 71st Congress (1929-1931) actually has the record, with 27 special elections.

As you and I both noted, wiki is less than comprehensive in it's information on this topic.  May I ask where you did manage to find that number?  Also 27 special elections seems like an extremely large number.  Why were there so many?

United States Congressional Elections, 1788-1997, by Micheal J. Dubin.

In addition to the special elections, there were also two vacancies that were not filled by special elections. I can tell you the dates, congressional districts, and even candidates of all the special elections, if you'd like.

I don't know why there were so many vacancies, though I guess it might have something to do with the Great Depression.

[jimrtex]

There have been 53 Congresses with more than 12 special elections.  12 is high only in terms of the post WWII era.

[jimrtex]

The 71st Congress (1929-1931) actually has the record, with 27 special elections.

As you and I both noted, wiki is less than comprehensive in it's information on this topic.  May I ask where you did manage to find that number?  Also 27 special elections seems like an extremely large number.  Why were there so many?

22 deaths (one in a plane accident).  The average age at death was about 60.   There was one representative who was 89 (I'm wondering whether he was the last representative to have served in the Civil War).  There was one who was 71, 11 in their 60's (most early), 5 in their 50's, and 4 in their 40's.

One resigned to become a secretary for President Hoover; two to become state supreme court justices, one to become a US Customs Court judge, and one appointed to become (temporary) Senator.  The senator appointee lost the election for the full term, and was re-elected to the House in 1936.

One possible factor may have been that this was prior to passage of the 20th Amendment, and the election was 5 months before the beginning of the term, and 6th months before the start of the first session which began on April 15, 1929 (the 71st Congress was unusual for that era, in that the 1st session began before December of the odd year).  5 representatives had died before the term began, and another two before Congress convened.

Another curiousity is that 13 of the 27 special elections were held in November 1930, concurrent with the general election for the 72nd session.  But those elected to fill vacancies did serve in the 3rd (lame duck) session.

Illinois and Pennsylvania apparently did not hold accellerated special elections.  In both states, a representative-elect who died before the start of the term in March 1929, was not replaced until the November 1930 election.

[Padfoot]

Thanks for the info Bacon King and jimrtex.