'76 Carter vs. Reagan after 8 years of Humphrey

[Reignman]

Let's assume Humphrey is elected in 1968 and re-elected in 1972. Carter wins the Democratic primaries in 1976 and Reagan wins the Republican primaries. Who wins? What's the map look like?

[Boris]

More information needed. What's the status of the economy in 1976? Is Humphrey popular?

And I dunno if Carter would have won the 1976 Democratic Nomination without Watergate, but that's another discussion.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Reagan probably would have ran instead in '72 if Humphrey won in '68.

In '76, if it was Reagan v. Carter - I'd say Reagan by a small margin. Keep in mind that the Democrats would have been in power for 16 years and a change in party was likely.

[Dr. Cynic]

More importantly... Did Ed Muskie decide not to run or what?

[True Democrat]

More importantly... Did Ed Muskie decide not to run or what?

He decided to cry instead.

[Reignman]

More information needed. What's the status of the economy in 1976? Is Humphrey popular?

And I dunno if Carter would have won the 1976 Democratic Nomination without Watergate, but that's another discussion.

I'm leaving what has happened after the Humphrey Administration completely open to everyone's interpretation. Also, Carter being the nominee may have been unlikely, but it's what I chose to present in the scenario.

[Lincoln Republican]

Governor Ronald Reagan picks northeast moderate Republican Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania for VP as a balance to his conservatism.

Governor Jimmy Carter picks midwestern liberal Democrat Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota for VP to appeal to more liberal voters.

The nation is just coming off of 16 straight years of Democratic administration.  Reagan hammers over and over again the need for change and renewal.  Reagan is the master manipulator of the media, easily outdistancing Carter in the Presidential debates.

The Reagan juggernaut begins in traditionally Republican upper New England.  Schweiker's presence on the ticket helps in this area.  Reagan also does very well on the east coast.  Schweiker cements the big electoral state of Pennsylvania into the GOP column.  Reagan sweeps through the midwest caputring the big electoral prizes of Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois along the way.  Reagan rolls up big wins in several southern states, home base to Carter, including Florida and Texas.  Reagan, not surprisingly, sweeps the west, culminating with an overwhelming win in his home state of California, the biggest electoral state of all.       

Reagan is charasmatic and engaging.  Carter is completely underhwelming.

Reagan offers America hope for the future.  Carter offers four years of uninspiring leadership. 

A big win for Reagan.

Reagan/Schweiker                406
Carter/Mondale                     132   

[gorkay]

It's not necessarily so unlikely that Carter would seek, and maybe obtain, the Democratic nomination in 1976 after HHH had been President for eight years. But only if whoever had been Vice-President for those eight years declined to run for the nomination, or was so unpopular he couldn't get it. If it was still Muskie, either of those conditions seem doubtful.

How about a 1976 ticket of Muskie/Carter?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think that aftet 16 years, the country would want new leadership.  Plus, most of the south would've hated Humphrey, and would go hard for Reagan.  Carter would win New England, and Reagan would win, 299-239.