CO: Bob Schaffer announces Senate run

[Rawlings]

Yes!  Schaffer has always been the top candidate.  McInnis got in the way and so he was pushed out by a newly united GOP in Colorado.  People outside of the state just don't realize how popular and talented Schaffer is and I think he'll have a much easier time with the race against Udall than most predict.

[Rawlings]

People outside of the state just don't realize how popular and talented Schaffer is

61 percent of Colorado Republicans disagree with you.

I'm not sure why liberals keep bringing that primary up.  When you've got a guy with a name like Coors--which has been foundational in Colorado politics--who has the backing of every Republican whose anybody--of course he's gonna win!  Schaffer got stabbed in the back, thrown under the bus, and left to dry.  But instead of vindictively going after Coors Schaffer stepped up and supported the campaign and has helped rebuild the GOP.

If there were a primary today between Schaffer and any other Republican excluding Bill Owens, Schaffer wins at least 70% of the vote.  But that's neither here nor there.  There will be no primary in the Centennial State.  It's Udall and Schaffer and in right-leaning Colorado it makes Republicans like me excited.

[Rawlings]

People outside of the state just don't realize how popular and talented Schaffer is

61 percent of Colorado Republicans disagree with you.

Pure example of the mess-up Colorado did in 2004. Only good thing out of it was Ken Salazar.

Coors was (and is) an idiot.

Yep.  There are compelling arguments out there that should Schaffer have been the anointed candidate not only would we have kept that seat but we would probably still be in power today.  That was the moment at which the party dissolved into disarray.  The state is conservative enough to have given Bush the victory and keep Colorado red.  But the embers were smoldering all around us and nobody really took notice until after this past election.

That's one of the primary reasons I'm quite convinced that Colorado's turn to the Democrats has much more to do with politics as usual than ideology or even demographics.  The Democrats have found new millionaire fundraisers to smoke GOP fundraising and they've been up against a split, defeated, GOP.  That's  playing the Red Sox playing the Yankees without an outfield.  The conservative coalition is strong in Colorado--but its not strong enough to win elections without libertarians and moderate Republicans.  When the GOP is united, funded, and awakened in Colorado I don't think the Democrats will have an easy time of things at all.

It looks to me, both from an outsiders and insiders perspective, that Schaffer is the only can that can unite the party here.  He'll hit three core principles in his campaign: spending, education, war on terror, family values(he's currently on the state board of education).  Dick Wadhams is brilliant at disciplining a caucus to hit three or four key issues and never moving off of them.  Those are all winning issues in Colorado--with the war on terror framed rightly--and it's why Schaffer should have the early edge in polling.

[Rawlings]

Udall vs Schaffer is going to be an epic fight

Are you being sarcastic? I really think there is about an 80% chance of Udall winning against Schaffer.

Are you really a Republican?  Or is this schadenfreude for you, pure and simple?  Because your own state is irrevocably blue do you gloat in the demise of red states?

Good grief, Charlie Brown!  How can you be so pessimistic?  I'm a Colorado Republican and I'm telling you to buckle your seat belt for a major campaign in which the Republican emerges.  Aizen is a Colorado Democrat telling you to buckle your seatbelt for a major campaign.  So, maybe--just thinking out loud here--you should actually believe us.  You clearly have no idea what's going on in Colorado--at best--and, at worst, you are a self-hating Republican.  If you truly believe that we're right on the issues then you having nothing to worry about in '08.  It won't be a great year--but this 80% garbage is silly.  Just silly.

[Rawlings]

Udall vs Schaffer is going to be an epic fight

Are you being sarcastic? I really think there is about an 80% chance of Udall winning against Schaffer.

Are you really a Republican?  Or is this schadenfreude for you, pure and simple?  Because your own state is irrevocably blue do you gloat in the demise of red states?

Do me a favor...ask anyone on this forum if Keystone Phil is really a Republican. Ask anyone. No one can call me a RINO so do me a favor and get to know this forum a little better before you say stupid stuff.

By the way, kid, my state isn't solid Dem so get a clue on that as well.

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Schaffer is a weak candidate and Udall is a powerhouse. I'm not a "self hating Republican" because I can recognize the obvious.

Ultimately, I hope I am wrong. I hope I have to look like a complete ass when it comes to this prediction when all is said and done in 2008 because I want to keep the seat. Don't think that I am rooting for the Dems to pick up Colorado.

"Powerhouse?"  Udall, a powerhouse???  Why do you say that?  He's a lifetime congressman from the state's most liberal district?  That's like rolling out the representative from inner-city Philly or something and putting him up against the rep. from Scranton.  The Philly guy has to convince the whole state that he's not an uber-liberal lifetime politician.  But the Scranton guy is folksy, relatable, likeable, well-known, conservative, and is not a lifetime politician.  Even in blue Pennsylvania I would give the edge to the Scranton guy.  In Colorado--more conservative than PA--why wouldn't you give Schaffer the edge? 

Udall has about the same name recognition as Schaffer.  Udall is not, contrary to popular east coast opinion, a household name in Colorado like Rockefeller is in New York.  He's just the Boulder liberal whose big on environmental stuff.  Schaffer is the conservative guy whose big on education.  If you know anything about Colorado you can't possibly be -rating this race any higher than 50-50.

[Rawlings]

"Powerhouse?"  Udall, a powerhouse???  Why do you say that?  He's a lifetime congressman from the state's most liberal district?  That's like rolling out the representative from inner-city Philly or something and putting him up against the rep. from Scranton.  The Philly guy has to convince the whole state that he's not an uber-liberal lifetime politician.  But the Scranton guy is folksy, relatable, likeable, well-known, conservative, and is not a lifetime politician.  Even in blue Pennsylvania I would give the edge to the Scranton guy.  In Colorado--more conservative than PA--why wouldn't you give Schaffer the edge?

Is Udall not a big name (for good reasons) in Colorado?  

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I guess I'll have to take your word for it. Just because Schaffer has the same name recognition of Udall doesn't mean it is for good reasons.

Schaffer represented a conservative, rural district.  Most voters live in Colorado Springs and metro Denver.  They never had a reason to hear from him.  Udall reprents--and has for years--a rural, mountain district including the uber-liberal town of Boulder.  Most people simply never had a reason to hear from him.

Both are fairly non-descript and have just never made a splash in the media.  That means that both are coming to the game with a blank slate.  The problem for Udall is that he is known as 'The congressman from Boulder.'  Boulder is kind of the state's pariah as it is like a mini-Berkely amidst a conservative tiger.  No matter how moderate he may or may not be--the mere image of a Boulder congressman conjures up images of tofu and Birkenstocks.

With that said, a skillful campaign can deflect that image.  Both Schaffer and Udall have a chance to recreate themselves in the image of the state and that's what will make it such an interesting campaign.  But Udall is no powerhouse--neither is Schaffer.  It's just a strong conservative against a strong liberal.  Colorado is not strongly conservative--but it is center-right and competitive much in the same way that Florida is.  That's why I'm picking Schaffer.