Scotland 2007; results thread

[afleitch]

I heard on News 24 there might be legal challenges to some results.

Yes - Labour wish to challenge the result in Cunnighame North. McConnell is also trying to undermine Salmond by trying to start coalition talks. Labour is desperately trying to hold onto power by any means possible (including dubious means on Thursday night/Friday morning)

Labour care not for the 150,000 spoiled papers and disenfranchised Scots, but for the handful where it counts for them. If they challenge, then the SNP can challenge the Airdrie and Shotts result. Then it just gets tit for tat.

Labour have no respect for the democratic system anyway from postal votes to dodgy machines. I expect them to stoop as low as they possibly can. My dislike for Labour has, over this election and from my experiences as a candidate, become a passionate hatred.

[Sibboleth]

Labour have no respect for the democratic system anyway from postal votes to dodgy machines.

I could quite happily dig up plent of evidence to "prove" that your party also has no respect for the democratic system either.

I could also, for example, claim that as Gwynedd County Council is run in very authoritarian way, discriminates against non-Welsh speakers and is probably very corrupt, all members of Plaid Cymru are corrupt, hate people who can't speak Welsh and have an authoritarian strike about a mile wide.

But what's the point exactly?

Besides it would also be quite hypocritical; for one thing, one of Labour's new AM's used to be a member (more than that; he was once their chairman!) of Plaid. And I also know several Plaid members, more Plaid members and find them to be, on the whole and with a few exceptions, decent people.

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Vote:
Con 334,743 (16.59% -0.27% on 2003) winning 4 seats (+1 on 2003)
Lab 649,150 (32.17% -2.98% on 2003) winning 37 seats (-9 on 2003)
LDm 326,232 (16.17% +0.58% on 2003) winning 11 seats (-2 on 2003)
SNP 664,227 (32.92% +8.78% on 2003) winning 21 seats (+12 on 2003)
Ind 25,047 (1.24% -0.12% on 2003) winning 0 seats (-1 on 2003)
Others 18,355 (0.91% -5.99% on 2003) winning 0 seats (n/c on 2003)

Regional Vote:
Con 284,005 (13.77% -1.73% on 2003) winning 13 seats (-1 on 2003)
Lab 595,415 (28.86% -0.44% on 2003) winning 9 seats (+5 on 2003)
LDm 230,671 (11.18% -0.60% on 2003) winning 5 seats (n/c on 2003)
SNP 633,401 (30.70% +9.84% on 2003) winning 26 seats (+10 on 2003)
Grn 82,584 (4.00% -2.89% on 2003) winning 2 seats (-5 on 2003)
SSP 12,731 (0.62% -6.11% on 2003) winning 0 seats (-8 on 2003)
Solidarity 31,066 (1.51%) winning 0 seats (n/c on 2003)
Ind 21,320 (1.03% -0.38% on 2003) winning 1 seat (n/c on 2003)
SSCUP 38,743 (1.88% +0.37% on 2003) winning 0 seats (-1 on 2003)
Socialist Labour 14,244 (0.69% -0.44% on 2003)
UKIP 8,197 (0.40% -0.23% on 2003)
Others 110,793 (5.37% +2.59% on 2003)

Composition of the Holyrood Parliament
SNP: 21 constituencies + 26 regionals = 47 MSP's (+22 on 2003)
Lab: 37 constituencies + 9 regionals = 46 MSP's (-4 on 2003)
Con: 4 constituencies + 13 regionals = 17 MSP's (n/c on 2003)
LDm: 11 constituencies + 5 regionals = 16 MSP's (-2 on 2003)
Grn: 0 constituencies + 2 regionals = 2 MSP's (-5 on 2003)
Ind: 0 constituencies + 1 regional = 1 MSP (-2 on 2003)
SNP short of an overall majority by 18

Coalitions: SNP + Lib Dem + Green = 66, Lab + Lib Dem + Green = 65, Lab + Con + Lib Dem + Green = 81

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

Labour have no respect for the democratic system anyway from postal votes to dodgy machines.

I could quite happily dig up plent of evidence to "prove" that your party also has no respect for the democratic system either.

I could also, for example, claim that as Gwynedd County Council is run in very authoritarian way, discriminates against non-Welsh speakers and is probably very corrupt, all members of Plaid Cymru are corrupt, hate people who can't speak Welsh and have an authoritarian strike about a mile wide.

But what's the point exactly?

Besides it would also be quite hypocritical; for one thing, one of Labour's new AM's used to be a member (more than that; he was once their chairman!) of Plaid. And I also know several Plaid members, more Plaid members and find them to be, on the whole and with a few exceptions, decent people.

This just proves that you, too, have an authoritarian strike a mile wide, are very corrupt, and hate people who can't speak Welsh, the Scottish electorate for example.
And given that you're a Labourite, you just proved Andrew's point.

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

Let's do Glasgow through a computer then (using the standard method and using Glasgow's numbers) as this is getting confusing:

9 Lab constituency wins (divides the Lab total by 10)
1 SNP constituency win (divides the SNP total by 2)
All other parties divide by 1

As each regional seat is calculated, it gets added to the totals of seats won and is recalculated

SNP 1st seat (new SNP divisor 3)
SNP 2nd seat (new SNP divisor 4)
Lib Dem 3rd seat (new Lib Dem divisor 2)
SNP 4th seat (new SNP divisor 5)
Con 5th seat (new Con divisor 2)
SNP 6th seat (new SNP divisor 6)
Greens 7th seat (new Green divisor 2)
SNP 4, Con 1, Lib Dem 1, Green 1

In that case, why am I getting: SNP 3, Con 1, Lib Dem 1, Solidarity 1 using a d'Hondt calculator that I was using for all the other calculations then?

Run that through a d'Hondt calculator:

That's what undid you. As a result of that, you only got additional SNP seats at total/4, total/6, total/8 etc when it should have been total/3, total/4, total/5 etc.
Same thing and worse with Labour of course (total/20, total/30, total/40 rather than total/11, total/12, total/13), tho' it didn't matter there anyways.

Maybe I've not been clear enough... I assume you just added your new totals (ie with SNP/2 and Labour/10) into that calculator and told it to distribute seven seats. How is some machine supposed to know that the SNP's next divisors come at SNP/3, SNP/4 etc - ie at (new total)/1.5, (new total)/2 etc rather than the normal (party x)/2, (party x)/3 etc. ?

[afleitch]

Look guys, I'm sorry. But I'm just really pissed off with the whole conduct of this election. Labour do not, under any circumstances, wish to let go of power in Scotland despite losing the election. Their campaign was negative, their arrogance was transparent with their unwillingness to let Salmond have 'first dibs' on forming an administration until someone had a quiet word in McConnell's ear.

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

Look guys, I'm sorry. But I'm just really pissed off with the whole conduct of this election. Labour do not, under any circumstances, wish to let go of power in Scotland despite losing the election. Their campaign was negative, their arrogance was transparent with their unwillingness to let Salmond have 'first dibs' on forming an administration until someone had a quiet word in McConnell's ear.

I'm hearing you. I frankly don't like it either. I think even Al's problem is just with the last sentence of your previous post (and he has a point there.)

[Sibboleth]

Yeah, I'm not happy with the way that certain comrades (I think with new leadership beckoning, 'tis time to revert to more traditional language...) north of the border have acted either*. Just try not to go over the top, that's all

*As it happens I think that a more positive campaign would have likely have saved one or two more vulnerable constituency seats. But that's not the only reason why I don't like it. I've always thought that part of the point of having a Labour Party was to set an example, and I don't like it when some within it don't.

[afleitch]

Lib Dem MSP Tavish Scott has stated that if the Liberal Democrats cannot reach agreement with the SNP they will return to the backbenches. Nationally they had privately hoped for 20-25 seats and are left to lick their wounds.

[afleitch]

[Sibboleth]

So if the election turned out as badly for Scottish Labour as it was looking until the last few days, they might as well have changed their name to the Bloc Glasgow?

[Harry Hayfield]

What I find the most interesting thing about that map is the SNP are really landlocked. Their best support are in Moray, Banff and Buchan, Angus, Perth and Kinross. Everywhere else they are marginal (even in Dundee)

[afleitch]

So if the election turned out as badly for Scottish Labour as it was looking until the last few days, they might as well have changed their name to the Bloc Glasgow?

Labour were excellent at retaining their marginals, but lost seats further down the list. Seats such as Cunninghame South and East Lothian swung heavily away from them. Nationwide things were just bizzare. Loosing Edinburgh East but not Central, a swing to Labour in Dumfries and the SNP gaining Argyll and Stirling East.

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

I also cannot see any relation to what happened to the 2005 General Election with the exception of Dumfries.

[Sibboleth]

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

You mean Dunfermline West, right?

The odd thing is that they wouldn't have taken it on the Westminster boundaries; have a look at the local results in Fife: http://www.fife.gov.uk/topics/index.cfm?fuseaction=subject.display&subjectid=75FF1F89-38B3-4136-B0449D1529C55B51

[afleitch]

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

You mean Dunfermline West, right?

The odd thing is that they wouldn't have taken it on the Westminster boundaries; have a look at the local results in Fife: http://www.fife.gov.uk/topics/index.cfm?fuseaction=subject.display&subjectid=75FF1F89-38B3-4136-B0449D1529C55B51

Of course .. West

I do wonder what the new Holyrood boundaries, whenever they are drawn will do to the results.