Scotland 2007; results thread

[afleitch]

LAB HOLD Eastwood

Jackson Carlaw (CON) is not my favourite chap; though he coiuld usurp Goldie in the regional list. Personally pleased he lost, even if my party did too.

[minionofmidas]

That's rather a surprise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's rather a surprise.

Not compared to this; Labour hold Linlithgow

[minionofmidas]

Still out as of now:
Argyll & Bute
Highlands & Islands list
Edinburgh E, N, S, and W (what's wrong with the Edina count?)
Lothian list
Aberdeen N
NE list
W of Scotland list

[afleitch]

I think Labour have won the most seats in Scotland; they are likely to gain in the Highlands and Islands and NE Scotland and while the SNP will take seats in the West of Scotland they are not strong enough, possibly to make up the numbers in the Lothian list.

[minionofmidas]

Edinburgh S in. Slight swing to the LDs.

[Verily]

My predictions seem to have underestimated the SNP on the lists.

Central Scotland
SNP 5
Con 1
LD 1

Highlands
No results yet (my guess is steady as she goes)

Mid
Lab 3
Con 3
SNP 1

South
SNP 5
Con 1
LD 1

Glasgow
SNP 4
Con 1
LD 1
Grn 1

Lothians
No results yet (SNP may gain at Greens' expense, really depends how many excess votes MacDonald gets)

North East
No results yet (SNP will lose a seat, the LDs will gain one, Lab will gain one from Green if they lose Aberdeen Central)

West
No results yet though all constituencies are in (It's very unclear where the SSP seat will go, most likely SNP)

[Verily]

While means Labour barely squeaks by as largest party:

Lab 46
SNP 44
Con 21
LD 17
Grn 3
Ind 1

[minionofmidas]

Labour hold Aberdeen Central after all.

[Verily]

Slight chance that the SNP will hold on to a list seat then. If not, the only change in North East will be an SNP list loss to LD plus an unpredictable Green seat. If the SNP wins a list seat, the LDs will gain the Green seat.

[Јas]

SNP GAIN Argyll & Bute on a 9.2% swing from the LibDems.

Only 2 constituencies left:
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh West

[Verily]

If the Edinburgh East swing is repeated, the SNP could gain Edinburgh North, too. That will throw my list predictions out the window entirely.

[Peter]

Why have the Greens collapsed? My initial thought is green voters getting on the SNP bandwagon in an attempt to usurp Labour.

I look very much forward to any attempt to build a coalition out of this mess too.

[Verily]

Lab hold Edinburgh North. SNP does pick up the SSP list seat in West Scotland. Lab and SNP now tied at 40-40.

Lothians (pred)
Con 2 (+1)
SNP 2
LD 1 (+1)
Ind 1
Grn 1 (-1)

North East (pred)
Con 3
Lab 3 (+1)
LD 1 (+1)

Highlands (pred)
Lab 3 (+1)
Con 2
SNP 1 (-1)
LD 1 (+1)

Lab will be largest party. If the SNP hadn't won Argyll and Bute, the Highlands list would have been SNP 2 Lab 2 Con 2 Grn 1, meaning a likely SNP-led coalition. Winning Argyll and Bute probably lost the SNP the election, ironically.

[Јas]

LibDem HOLD Edinburgh West.

All constituencies declared.

[bullmoose88]

Total Seat Count?

What is the number needed for a majority, and what combinations (realistic) of party coalitions can form the majority?

[Colin]

Total Seat Count?

What is the number needed for a majority, and what combinations (realistic) of party coalitions can form the majority?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/vote2007/scottish_parliment/html/region_99999.stm

Labour is most likely going to move ahead of the SNP as most of the list seats still left are in Northern Scotland.

[Colin]

LD Hold Edinburgh West, last constituency seat to be announced.

[bullmoose88]

Because I'm functionally retarded, can someone explain to me how the regional seats are awarded?

[Verily]

SNP had a big swing in Edinburgh West to them. I may be underestimating their chances in the Lothians list.

[Colin]

Because I'm functionally retarded, can someone explain to me how the regional seats are awarded?

Basically these add seats in order to make the totals in the region proportional. Proportionality is decided by the regional vote so if a party wins 20% of the regional vote it has to win somewhere around 20% of the seats. Let's say that the region has 10 seats in it, five of which are constituency, and the SNP wins 30% of the vote. That entitles it to 3 of those 10 seats. If the SNP has already won three or more seats they do not get any more seats from the regional list, if they have won less than three seats they recieve however many is needed to achieve the proportional number of seats.

It is basically the same system they use in Germany and is better explained by Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_Member_Proportional

[Verily]

Unfortunately, Wales and Scotland have too few seats to do MMP right so you get things like the Conservatives winning more votes than Plaid in Wales but fewer seats.

[Јas]

Count the number of constituency seats won by each party in that region.
Add one to each party (avoids dividing by zero).
Divide the votes cast in the regional vote by this number.
The party with the highest number gets the first regional seat.
The next regional seats are allocated in the same way but after adding the extra seat won in the previous calculation.

Lifted from here.

[StateBoiler]

Because I'm functionally retarded, can someone explain to me how the regional seats are awarded?

Basically these add seats in order to make the totals in the region proportional. Proportionality is decided by the regional vote so if a party wins 20% of the regional vote it has to win somewhere around 20% of the seats. Let's say that the region has 10 seats in it, five of which are constituency, and the SNP wins 30% of the vote. That entitles it to 3 of those 10 seats. If the SNP has already won three or more seats they do not get any more seats from the regional list, if they have won less than three seats they recieve however many is needed to achieve the proportional number of seats.

It is basically the same system they use in Germany and is better explained by Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_Member_Proportional

Interesting. I'd have to try this as a curiosity for US House results.

So in reality, if it weren't for these list seats, the Tories in Scotland would be effectively dead?

[Јas]

NE Scotland
SNP 2
Lab 2
Con 2
LibD 1

Only 2 regions left:
Highlands & Islands
Lothian

Currently:
Lab 42
SNP 42