Scotland 2007; results thread

[Harry Hayfield]

Alex Salmond For First Minister (SNP) 55,832 / 2 = 27,916
British National Party- Local People First 3,865
Christian Peoples Alliance- Leader Teresa Smith 2,626
Communist Party Of Britian 260
Independent Green Voice, Ecology, Localism, Democracy 496
Nine Per Cent Growth Party  80
Publican Party-Smoking Room in Pubs 952
Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers 293
Scottish Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" 2,991
Scottish Conservative and Unionist 13,781
Scottish Green Party 10,759
Scottish Labour Party 78,838 / 10 = 7,884
Scottish Liberal Democrats 14,767
Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party 3,703
Scottish Socialist Party - Rosie Kane 2,579
Scottish Unionist Proudly Scottish Proudly British 1,612
Scottish Voice 389
Socialist Labour Party 2,680
Solidarity- Tommy Sheridan 8,574
UKIP Scotland 405
James Cruickshank Independent 286
Asif Nasir Independent 317
Muhammad Shoaib Independent 582

Run that through a d'Hondt calculator and you get:

SNP win the first seat, Lib Dems win the second seat, SNP win the third seat, Con win the fourth seat, Greens win the fifth seat, SNP win the sixth seat, Solidarity wins the seventh seat.

So why does Glasgow say:

Bashir Ahmad SNP, Sandra White SNP, Robert Brown Lib Dem, Bob Doris SNP, Bill Aitken Con, Bill Kidd SNP, Patrick Harvie Green.

[Harry Hayfield]

Have you divided the tally by the number of seats won+1?

Yes, that's why the SNP vote is divided by 2 (Glasgow, Govan +1) and the Lab vote is divided by 10 (9 Lab wins +1)

[Harry Hayfield]

Let's do Glasgow through a computer then (using the standard method and using Glasgow's numbers) as this is getting confusing:

9 Lab constituency wins (divides the Lab total by 10)
1 SNP constituency win (divides the SNP total by 2)
All other parties divide by 1

As each regional seat is calculated, it gets added to the totals of seats won and is recalculated

SNP 1st seat (new SNP divisor 3)
SNP 2nd seat (new SNP divisor 4)
Lib Dem 3rd seat (new Lib Dem divisor 2)
SNP 4th seat (new SNP divisor 5)
Con 5th seat (new Con divisor 2)
SNP 6th seat (new SNP divisor 6)
Greens 7th seat (new Green divisor 2)
SNP 4, Con 1, Lib Dem 1, Green 1

In that case, why am I getting: SNP 3, Con 1, Lib Dem 1, Solidarity 1 using a d'Hondt calculator that I was using for all the other calculations then?

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Vote:
Con 334,743 (16.59% -0.27% on 2003) winning 4 seats (+1 on 2003)
Lab 649,150 (32.17% -2.98% on 2003) winning 37 seats (-9 on 2003)
LDm 326,232 (16.17% +0.58% on 2003) winning 11 seats (-2 on 2003)
SNP 664,227 (32.92% +8.78% on 2003) winning 21 seats (+12 on 2003)
Ind 25,047 (1.24% -0.12% on 2003) winning 0 seats (-1 on 2003)
Others 18,355 (0.91% -5.99% on 2003) winning 0 seats (n/c on 2003)

Regional Vote:
Con 284,005 (13.77% -1.73% on 2003) winning 13 seats (-1 on 2003)
Lab 595,415 (28.86% -0.44% on 2003) winning 9 seats (+5 on 2003)
LDm 230,671 (11.18% -0.60% on 2003) winning 5 seats (n/c on 2003)
SNP 633,401 (30.70% +9.84% on 2003) winning 26 seats (+10 on 2003)
Grn 82,584 (4.00% -2.89% on 2003) winning 2 seats (-5 on 2003)
SSP 12,731 (0.62% -6.11% on 2003) winning 0 seats (-8 on 2003)
Solidarity 31,066 (1.51%) winning 0 seats (n/c on 2003)
Ind 21,320 (1.03% -0.38% on 2003) winning 1 seat (n/c on 2003)
SSCUP 38,743 (1.88% +0.37% on 2003) winning 0 seats (-1 on 2003)
Socialist Labour 14,244 (0.69% -0.44% on 2003)
UKIP 8,197 (0.40% -0.23% on 2003)
Others 110,793 (5.37% +2.59% on 2003)

Composition of the Holyrood Parliament
SNP: 21 constituencies + 26 regionals = 47 MSP's (+22 on 2003)
Lab: 37 constituencies + 9 regionals = 46 MSP's (-4 on 2003)
Con: 4 constituencies + 13 regionals = 17 MSP's (n/c on 2003)
LDm: 11 constituencies + 5 regionals = 16 MSP's (-2 on 2003)
Grn: 0 constituencies + 2 regionals = 2 MSP's (-5 on 2003)
Ind: 0 constituencies + 1 regional = 1 MSP (-2 on 2003)
SNP short of an overall majority by 18

Coalitions: SNP + Lib Dem + Green = 66, Lab + Lib Dem + Green = 65, Lab + Con + Lib Dem + Green = 81

[Harry Hayfield]

What I find the most interesting thing about that map is the SNP are really landlocked. Their best support are in Moray, Banff and Buchan, Angus, Perth and Kinross. Everywhere else they are marginal (even in Dundee)

[Harry Hayfield]

Something that just occurred to me... Are we likely to see a by-election in the Westminster Banff and Buchan constituency soon? I would assume Salmond will stand down as an MP to become First Minister.

That's right (and what an interesting by-election that will be). The result in 2005 was:

Alex Salmond, SNP 19,044 (51.17%)
Sandy Wallace, Con   7,207 (19.36%)
Eleanor Anderson, LDm 4,952   (13.30%)
Rami Okasha, Lab 4,476 (12.02%)
Victor Ross, OCV 683 (1.83%)
Kathleen Kemp, UKInd 442 (1.18%)
Steve Will, SSP 412 (1.10%)

How much of that 19,000 votes is down to a personal vote? He has been the MP since 1987 and that could make this extremely interesting indeed.

[Harry Hayfield]

Party wins in Banff and Buchan 1979 - 2007 (prior to that I think it was called Banff)

1987 - 2007: SNP
1979 - 1987: Con

I do remember from my election archive that the SNP did win Banff in one of the 74 elections and that before that it was Con

[Harry Hayfield]

A little crude, so sorry... anyway... number of seats won by each party in Glasgow (local election)...

For a party so opposed to STV, I bet Glasgow Conservatives are cheering!

[Harry Hayfield]

Red: Lab
Purple: SNP
Yellow: Lib Dem
Green: Green
Light Red: Solidarity
Blue: Con

[Harry Hayfield]

Following a BBC report about the elections, I would like to know the following:

(copy of an e-mail sent to Aberdeen City Council)

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I should point out that I am quite serious about this, as I think the Scottish Parliament would be able to get on with things if all the ballots were counted in the proper manner (i.e by a person not a computer)