Scotland 2007; results thread

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Seems like all the Labourites are convinced Scotland will go SNP while all the anti-Labour people are convinced Labour will hold on! Everyone's a pessimist.

And my earlier prediction to be laughed at later. SNP-Lib Dem coalition with possibly the Greens included to ensure stability (since this gives an SNP-Lib Dem majority of only 2).

SNP 44
LAB 36
LIB 22
CON 18
GRN 6
SOL 1
SCU 1
IND 2

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Labour hold Kelvin apparently

Bad news for the SNP.

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Wait... The Greens ran a candidate in Glasgow Kelvin!? Well, they were the spoilers. SNP came 5.1% short and the Greens won 12.6% (good for third).

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SNP gain Dundee West.

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Lab hold Cunninghame South and Glasgow Baillieston. The SNP total in both is basically SNP+SSP from last time; Labour hardly changed at all.

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Enormous LD majority in Shetland. Not surprising, really.

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It looks like tactical voting backfired on the anti-Labourites in Dumfries. Cons decline and SNP gains when the ideal was the other way around. Lab hold.

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SNP gain of Fife Central confirmed.

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Bleh. I would have liked Salmond to lose while the SNP won.

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SNP hold Angus, Lab hold Midlothian with another big swing to SNP.

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SNP GAIN STIRLING!?!

Talk about unexpected. That was supposed to be a Conservative target!

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LD hold Orkney and Aberdeenshire both.

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SNP hold Ochil, barely.

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SNP fortunes are looking up again.

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LDs do, in fact, gain Dunfermline West. I guess the by-election was no fluke.

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SNP gain Kilmarnock & Loudoun.

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Lab hold Renfrewshire West. The tactical voters couldn't decide where to go. Goldie moved into second place, barely.

LDs hold Fife North East.

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I can be comforted by the fact that losing both seats just means two Lib Dem list seats instead of none.

LD hold Caithness.

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Is counting ongoing?

Indeed.

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Strathkelvin count 'cancelled' for tonight. Result due at noon.

I hope shenanigans don't cost Turner her seat.

LDs hold Ross, Skye & Inverness West. Big swing to the SNP there.

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Analysis of the remaining seats:

Aberdeen Central: Likely SNP, could go LD; either more likely than Lab hold
Aberdeen North: SNP hold, though Lab could surprise
Argyll & Bute: LD hold
Ayr: Con hold
Carrick: Probable Lab hold, could be Con gain
Clydesdale: Lab hold; outside chance of SNP gain
Cunninghame North: 50-50 SNP gain or Lab hold
Eastwood: Probable Lab hold, could be Con gain
Edinburgh Central: Lab hold, Outside chance of LD gain
Edinburgh East: Lab hold
Edinburgh North: Lab hold
Edinburgh Pentlands: Con hold
Edinburgh South: Probable LD hold, could be Lab gain
Edinburgh West: LD hold
Falkirk East: Lab hold
Falkirk West: Would say Lab gain, but may be totally unpredictable SNP GAIN!
Glasgow Springburn: Lab hold
Greenock and Inverclyde: Lab hold, Outside chance of LD gain
Linlithgow: Probably SNP gain
Livingston: Outside chance of SNP gain
Perth: Probable SNP hold
Roxburgh: Probable LD hold, could be Con gain
Strathkelvin: Probable Ind hold
Tayside North: SNP hold
Tweeddale: Total tossup LD hold
Western Isles: Probable SNP gain

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List prediction:

Central:
SNP 2 or 3
Con 2
LD 1 or 2
SSCUP 1

Highlands:
SNP 2
Lab 2
Con 2
Grn 1

Mid:
Con 3
Lab 2
Grn 1
LD 1

South:
SNP 4
Con 2
LD 1

[Glasgow (already known):
SNP 4
LD 1
Con 1
Grn 1]

Lothians:
SNP 3
Con 2
Ind 1
Grn 1

North East:
Con 3
Lab 3
LD 1

West:
SNP 3
Con 2
LD 1 or 2
Grn 0 or 1 (only potential Green gain)

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My predictions seem to have underestimated the SNP on the lists.

Central Scotland
SNP 5
Con 1
LD 1

Highlands
No results yet (my guess is steady as she goes)

Mid
Lab 3
Con 3
SNP 1

South
SNP 5
Con 1
LD 1

Glasgow
SNP 4
Con 1
LD 1
Grn 1

Lothians
No results yet (SNP may gain at Greens' expense, really depends how many excess votes MacDonald gets)

North East
No results yet (SNP will lose a seat, the LDs will gain one, Lab will gain one from Green if they lose Aberdeen Central)

West
No results yet though all constituencies are in (It's very unclear where the SSP seat will go, most likely SNP)

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While means Labour barely squeaks by as largest party:

Lab 46
SNP 44
Con 21
LD 17
Grn 3
Ind 1

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Slight chance that the SNP will hold on to a list seat then. If not, the only change in North East will be an SNP list loss to LD plus an unpredictable Green seat. If the SNP wins a list seat, the LDs will gain the Green seat.