Will Demographic Change ship Elections to the Dems?

[Governor PiT]

The US will eventually resemble CA demographically, but does that necesarily mean it will resemble CA Politically?

[minionofmidas]

No; certainly not alone.

[Alcon]

These are some of the most confusing poll options I've ever seen...

[Gabu]

These are some of the most confusing poll options I've ever seen...

I think that what is intended is this:

Yes - demographic change will make Democrats win
No - demographic change will make Republicans win
No - demographic change will make Independents win
To hard to tell what will happen

[Alcon]

These are some of the most confusing poll options I've ever seen...

I think that what is intended is this:

Yes - demographic change will make Democrats win
No - demographic change will make Republicans win
No - demographic change will make Independents win
To hard to tell what will happen

Ohh.  Oy, I thought we were supposed to vote based on partisan identification.

Too hard to tell, and too dependent on situations/candidates, of course.

[bullmoose88]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

Absent such a screw up on a national scale...then no.

On the other hand, the short term outlook for the Democrats looks quite good, but that won't necessarily last more than a cycle or two.

[Governor PiT]

Republicans depend on white voters to win elections, so when whites are no longers a majority, will that give teh dems a permanent majority like they have in CA?

[Alcon]

Republicans depend on white voters to win elections, so when whites are no longers a majority, will that give teh dems a permanent majority like they have in CA?

There are plenty of areas with majority-minority populations that vote Republican.

[Gabu]

There are plenty of areas with majority-minority populations that vote Republican.

We really, really need to find a better word than "minority" for people who are not white, for this very reason.

[Padfoot]

Demographic changes will not affect either party's ability to win.  They will both adapt in response to the changing political environment or they will go extinct.  Well, I suppose a beleif in evolution is necessary to acheive this so Democrats have the edge.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Not in the long run. What they will do is make the US less protestant, more catholic(less opposition to welfare for one), less christian in general and make the US get over its lingering race issues(the boomers are the generation STILL refighting old civil rights battles).

[Governor PiT]

The immigrants of the past such as the Irish and Italians started out as a solid democratic block and became more republcain as they assimilated.

[memphis]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

No it's the national party's fault for obsession over Jesus and what he would think about gay marriage and abortion. The state party, led by the Governator, understands how much the fundies are screwing his party.

[tarheel-leftist85]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

No it's the national party's fault for obsession over Jesus and what he would think about gay marriage and abortion. The state party, led by the Governator, understands how much the fundies are screwing his party.

Which is why a Rep. is guaranteed 47+% in CA next time when Reps. abandon the (cultural) populist act (thought not entirely).

[opebo]

It actually depends on the fundamentalist Christians..  if they're a hard core lump of 20% of the vote in 2025, and represent half the white vote, as they do now.. then I suppose it will be pretty hard for the GOP to divorce itself from them, even if it isn't a winning strategy.

Parties really don't adapt as perfectly as some on this board think - for example the Democratic Party of the last 25 years has been reluctantant to give up stances that make it a 48% at best party..  Basically because it is beholden to educated, thinking people in the Northeast and West Coast.. but thank goodness it hasn't given in to the other side just to win!

[bullmoose88]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

No it's the national party's fault for obsession over Jesus and what he would think about gay marriage and abortion. The state party, led by the Governator, understands how much the fundies are screwing his party.

With the exception of Arnold...the CA GOP has so much trouble because of the propositions of the early 90s (When Pete Wilson was in power...they basically stuck the middle finger at the state's hispanic population...which in any given state tends to give about 1/3rd...roughly...of its support to the GOP...well...it continues to bite them in the arse.)

Certainly the National GOP's tilt rightward hasn't helped...but it wasn't like the CA GOP was in good position before that happened.

[Sam Spade]

Not in the long run. What they will do is make the US less protestant, more catholic(less opposition to welfare for one), less christian in general and make the US get over its lingering race issues(the boomers are the generation STILL refighting old civil rights battles).

You may be right on the last comment, but the other three are hilariously wrong, even with today's standards.

[Sam Spade]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

No it's the national party's fault for obsession over Jesus and what he would think about gay marriage and abortion. The state party, led by the Governator, understands how much the fundies are screwing his party.

Strange thing is that principle works in entirely the opposite way with Texas and New Mexico Hispanics and Colorado/Florida Hispanics to a lesser extent.

Key principle that most people are forgetting is that the Hispanic population acts differently depending on what region of the country you're in.  That's what makes this poll kind of senseless - CA hispanics do not equal US hispanics.

[bullmoose88]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

No it's the national party's fault for obsession over Jesus and what he would think about gay marriage and abortion. The state party, led by the Governator, understands how much the fundies are screwing his party.

Strange thing is that principle works in entirely the opposite way with Texas and New Mexico Hispanics and Colorado/Florida Hispanics to a lesser extent.

Key principle that most people are forgetting is that the Hispanic population acts differently depending on what region of the country you're in.  That's what makes this poll kind of senseless - CA hispanics do not equal US hispanics.

So were you agreeing or disagreeing with me? Its been a long day.

[Sam Spade]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

No it's the national party's fault for obsession over Jesus and what he would think about gay marriage and abortion. The state party, led by the Governator, understands how much the fundies are screwing his party.

Strange thing is that principle works in entirely the opposite way with Texas and New Mexico Hispanics and Colorado/Florida Hispanics to a lesser extent.

Key principle that most people are forgetting is that the Hispanic population acts differently depending on what region of the country you're in.  That's what makes this poll kind of senseless - CA hispanics do not equal US hispanics.

So were you agreeing or disagreeing with me? Its been a long day.

You are correct, of course.  Most of it has to do with CARLHAYDEN.

Besides, even in California the Hispanic vote will shade more for abortion restrictions and anti-gay restrictions than the white population in hyper-Republican areas will.  There's an interesting hydraulic going on there in the numbers under the radar.

[TeePee4Prez]

The direct and intentional actions of the Republican party in California are in large part responsible for its in ability to break say 44-45% in most CA elections.

No it's the national party's fault for obsession over Jesus and what he would think about gay marriage and abortion. The state party, led by the Governator, understands how much the fundies are screwing his party.

Strange thing is that principle works in entirely the opposite way with Texas and New Mexico Hispanics and Colorado/Florida Hispanics to a lesser extent.

Key principle that most people are forgetting is that the Hispanic population acts differently depending on what region of the country you're in.  That's what makes this poll kind of senseless - CA hispanics do not equal US hispanics.

So were you agreeing or disagreeing with me? Its been a long day.

You are correct, of course.  Most of it has to do with CARLHAYDEN.

Besides, even in California the Hispanic vote will shade more for abortion restrictions and anti-gay restrictions than the white population in hyper-Republican areas will.  There's an interesting hydraulic going on there in the numbers under the radar.

Good point and I'll even add the blacks to that.  Take away civil rights issues, etc., voting blacks can be quite conservative on social issues and give a lot of money to their churches. 

[Alcon]

Sam, do you see some level of this same varied social landscape developing among the black population?  I know that in urban Washington (the best example I know of anything ), black areas are gentrifying and traditional black churches are in the odd position of having to appeal to gay whites.  This is liberalizing the churches and the voters, which is kind of an interesting effect to watch.  On the other hand, in the suburbs here - with a booming black population - they have more access to traditional churches.

Is this effect replicated nationally in any form?

[Alcon]

Washington State has a booming black population? I did not know that... I thought Arizona had the fastest growing black population out west.

Mm, not really.

We are having "black flight" to the suburbs, mostly, although I think our black population is increasing faster than our white population.

[memphis]

Washington State has a booming black population? I did not know that... I thought Arizona had the fastest growing black population out west.

Mm, not really.

We are having "black flight" to the suburbs, mostly, although I think our black population is increasing faster than our white population.

There are black people in Washington state?

[Alcon]

There are black people in Washington state?

Yes.  You're obviously forgetting about Mike.