CO: 2004 Initiative General Election Result
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  CO: 2004 Initiative General Election Result
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Author Topic: CO: 2004 Initiative General Election Result  (Read 1812 times)
Rob
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« on: May 07, 2007, 11:31:31 PM »

New Election: 2004 Colorado Initiative General Election Results
   
   

I don't see what was so objectionable about this; more Coloradans opposed a tobacco tax to promote health than voted for this measure.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2007, 03:36:34 AM »

Unsurprisingly, in Bush's best counties, he barely ran ahead of the "no" vote on this initiative (you see that a lot with gay marriage and other partisan initiatives too).  In fact, this ran behind in three counties - Archuleta (-0.58%), Moffat (-1.89%) and Rio Blanco (-6.87%).  Numbers indicated are percent of percentage points (e.g. 40% to 80% would be +100%).  Of those, only Archuleta was not a massive Bush landslide - he got 61.67% there.

Only two other non-landslide counties demonstrated returns like this --

Garfield - Bush 53.87%, No 58.23% (+8.09%)
Hinsdale - Bush 58.97%, No 59.46% (+0.83%)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2007, 04:11:19 AM »

Big scare campaign against this amendment in the final weeks. Would have been very close otherwise.
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Rob
Bob
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2007, 08:03:25 AM »

I don't see what was so objectionable about this; more Coloradans opposed a tobacco tax to promote health than voted for this measure.

... which is here if anyone's interested.

Big scare campaign against this amendment in the final weeks. Would have been very close otherwise.

I remember being disappointed when it failed, because it would have given Kerry a few extra electoral votes. Wink What were the arguments made against it?
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Verily
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2007, 10:04:47 AM »

I don't see what was so objectionable about this; more Coloradans opposed a tobacco tax to promote health than voted for this measure.

... which is here if anyone's interested.

Big scare campaign against this amendment in the final weeks. Would have been very close otherwise.

I remember being disappointed when it failed, because it would have given Kerry a few extra electoral votes. Wink What were the arguments made against it?

In rural reas, they basically said it would give Kerry the Presidency. In urban areas they said no one would ever visit Colorado again.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2007, 11:06:50 AM »

At one point the amendment looked like it would pass; it was polling at 51% at one stage.  Then leading Republicans and Democrats came out against it - the reason was because Democrats believed that Kerry could win the state outright and didn't want to split electoral votes with Bush.  That basically sank the amendment. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2007, 12:34:54 PM »

I don't see what was so objectionable about this; more Coloradans opposed a tobacco tax to promote health than voted for this measure.

... which is here if anyone's interested.

Big scare campaign against this amendment in the final weeks. Would have been very close otherwise.

I remember being disappointed when it failed, because it would have given Kerry a few extra electoral votes. Wink What were the arguments made against it?

In rural reas, they basically said it would give Kerry the Presidency. In urban areas they said no one would ever visit Colorado again.
Colorado's dem-rep split is not urban-rural.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2007, 11:02:08 PM »

I don't see what was so objectionable about this; more Coloradans opposed a tobacco tax to promote health than voted for this measure.

... which is here if anyone's interested.

Passes in El Paso and Douglas (quite heavily too), yet fails in Pueblo? Huh?
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2007, 11:26:52 PM »

I don't see what was so objectionable about this; more Coloradans opposed a tobacco tax to promote health than voted for this measure.

... which is here if anyone's interested.

Passes in El Paso and Douglas (quite heavily too), yet fails in Pueblo? Huh?

Colorado Springs is an especially healthy city.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2007, 01:59:09 PM »

The measure would have significantly reduced the motivation of candidates to campaign in Colorado.

With the winner take all system the winner gets nine votes.

With the proportional system the winner would be unlikely to get more than six votes (probably five), a three (or more likely one) vote margin.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2007, 05:00:41 PM »

I don't see what was so objectionable about this; more Coloradans opposed a tobacco tax to promote health than voted for this measure.
It purported to apply itself to an election being held on the same date.  In effect, the meaning of a vote for Kerry would have a different meaning if the proposition passed, than if the proposition failed.  The manner by which electors were chosen, would be changed at the same time that the electors were chosen. 

It also included provisions for changing the timing of how a constitutional amendment would come into force so that the electors could be appointed on time to vote.  So the measure in effect said, if this proposition passes, the method of determining that this initiative proposition has passed will be changed for this proposition.

And then it included a serverabilty clause, that meant that in the case the proposition caused a train wreck magnitudes worse than Florida 2000, that the supporters would shrug their shoulders and say, "oh yeah, it won't apply until 2008.

The backers were Democrats from California and Ohio, who were deliberately trying to steal a few electoral votes in what was anticipated as being a close electoral vote (flip Ohio and Wisconsin, for example).  This also explains the support in Aspen and Telluride.

Under most circumstances, a state with a relatively small even number of electoral votes would end up with a 50:50 split.  In a two-way contest with 8 electoral votes, the winner would need a 56.25:43.75% win (12.5% victory to get a 5:3 split).  But because of the peculiar way of doing the "proportional" allocation, in Colorado in 2000 there would have been 5:3 split for Bush.
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