Turkey General Elections, 2007

[minionofmidas]

Elections to be held on 22nd July.

Main players:

AKP (Justice & Development Party), soft-Islamist yet rather pro-European. Won big in 2002. Expected to win again.

CHP (Republican People's Party), Kemal Atatürk's old party. Secular. Sort of center-left economically (not much different than the AKP there, I'd say) Pro-American but not very Pro-European.

DP (Democratic Party), secular, conservative. Recent merger of ANAP (Motherland Party) and DYP (Right Way Party) - the new name is an old name, being that of the CHP's great rival of the 40s and 50s.

MHP (Nationalist Movement Party), conservative to downright fascist, not quite as secular as CHP and DP. Well-connected to the army.

DTP (Democratic Society Party), latest guise of what was known as DEHAP last time, and as HADEP the two times before. Kurdish Nationalists. Won't win 10% of the vote, but will once again top the poll in numerous southeastern provinces.

Turkey uses a system wherein each province serves as a constituency, except the three largest provinces which are split into 2 (Ankara, Izmir) or 3 (Istanbul). Seats are distributed by D'Hondt within provinces - but only to parties that crossed a national 10% threshold, and independents.

2002 election results
AKP 31.4% 361 seats
CHP 22.3% 179 seats
DYP 9.6%
MHP 8.3%
GP 7.3% "Youth Party" Another secular conservative party; mushroom growth based on founder Cem Uzan's millions, seems to have imploded since
DEHAP 6.2%
ANAP 5.1%
SP 2.5% "Felicity Party" the more hardline, and anti-European, wing of the Islamists.
DSP 1.2% "Democratic Left Party", the party of Bülent Ecevit. Completely imploded in 2002, and has been slow to rebuild since. Secular, Social Democratic.
YTP 1.2% "New Turkey Party", splinter off the DSP before the 2002 elections. Very secularist, had a very pro-European programme in '02, but has since merged into the CHP.
BBP 1.0% "Grand Movement Party". More Islamist-inclined splinter off the MHP. As ugly as it gets in Turkish politics, I suppose...
seven other parties 2.9%
independents 1.0% but 10 seats - because only 53% of the vote went to parties represented in parliament, the threshold for indies was de facto pretty low, especially in Kurdistan.

1999 result:
DSP 22.2 136
MHP 18.0 129 (these two parties formed the government before the election, weird as it may sound, and were riding high on a wave of popularity just at the time of election, thanks in part to the capture of Abdullah Öcalan, and a short lived economic boom)
FP 15.4 111 ("Virtue Party", predecessor of both AKP and SP. Officially banned, on rather flimsy grounds, in 2001, but its MPs continued to sit in parliament and everything.)
ANAP 13.2 86
DYP 12.0 85
3 indies elected
CHP 8.7
HADEP 4.8
BBP 1.5

1995 results:
RP 21.4 158 ("Welfare Party". Same as Virtue, in 1998.)
ANAP 19.6 132
DYP 19.2 135
DSP 14.6 76
CHP 10.7 49
MHP 8.2
HADEP 4.2

Ooh yeah, I calculated these a long time ago:

2002 results with no threshold (but otherwise same election law)
AKP 263, CHP 117, DEHAP 48 (profiting from its concentration in the SE), DYP 45, MHP 33, GP 27, ANAP 8, SP 4, BBP 1, i 4.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance of either of the main parties throwing the "Mountain Turks" a bone and eliminating or modifying the 10% national requirement?

[Middle-aged Europe]

To quote Lewis from that other thread:

A solution to the Presidential Election debacle is postponed until after the election - Erdogan is pushing for a constitutional amendment to have the president elected by the people, the term shortened from 7 to 5 years, and the term limit changed from a maximum of one to a maximum of two.

There's also once again speculation that if he could as he would, the ten-percent threshold would be abolished, preferably before the election, but he's not only got the opposition CHP and of course the army but also parts of his own party dead set against that, so it's not happening.

[Hash]

A poll I saw on election-politique gave the AKP 41%, although it said another poll gave them 29%

[minionofmidas]

Can't make a map myself, but:

Imagine these in Atlas shading...


AKP>50 Düzce, Erzurum, Kahramanmaras, Kayseri, Konya, Malatya, Yozgat
AKP>40 Adiyaman, Afyon, Aksaray, Ankara 2, Bolu, Bursa, Cankiri, Corum, Elazig, Erzincan, Gaziantep, Giresun, Gümüshane, Isparta, Karabük, Kirikkale, Kocaeli, Kütahya, Nevsehir, Nigde, Ordu, Rize, Sakarya, Samsun, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon
AKP>30 Amasya, Ankara 1, Balikesire, Bingöl, Istanbul 1-3, Karaman, Kastamonu, Kilis, Kirsehir, Manisa, Osmaniye, Sinop, Yalova, Zonguldak
AKP>20 Adana, Bartin, Bilecik, Burdur, Canakkale, Denizli, Eskisehir, Hatay, Sanliurfa

CHP>30 Antalya, Kirklareli
CHP>20 Ardahan, Artvin, Aydin, Edirne, Izmir 1&2, Mersin, Mugla, Tekirdag, Usak

DEHAP>50 Diyarbakir, Hakkari
DEHAP>40 Batman, Sirnak, Van
DEHAP>30 Agri, Igdir, Mardin, Mus, Siirt, Tunceli
DEHAP>20 Bitlis
DEHAP>10 Kars

i>20 Bayburt

Bigger map

[minionofmidas]

Or for those more interested in winning party's lead:
AKP>40 Düzce, Erzurum, Kahramanmaras, Kayseri, Konya, Malatya
AKP>30 Aksaray, Bolu, Cankiri, Giresun, Karabük, Kirikkale, Kütahya, Samsun, Yozgat
AKP>25 Adiyaman, Afyon, Bursa, Corum, Gümüshane, Nevsehir, Ordu, Sivas, Trabzon
AKP>20 Elazig, Gaziantep, Isparta, Karaman, Kilis, Kocaeli, Nigde, Ordu, Tokat
AKP>15 Amasya, Ankara 2, Istanbul 2, Istanbul 3, Rize, Sakarya, Yalova
AKP>10 Balikesir, Bartin, Erzincan, Kastamonu, Kirsehir, Manisa, Sinop
AKP>5 Adana, Bingöl, Burdur, Eskisehir, Istanbul 1, Zonguldak
AKP>2 Bilecik, Canakkale, Denizli, Hatay, Sanliurfa
AKP>1 Osmaniye
AKP<1 Ankara 1

CHP>15 Kirklareli
CHP>10 Edirne, Izmir 1&2, Tekirdag
CHP>5 Antalya, Mersin, Mugla
CHP>2 Ardahan, Artvin, Usak
CHP<1 Aydin

DEHAP>40 Diyarbakir
DEHAP>30 Sirnak
DEHAP>25 Batman, Hakkari
DEHAP>20 Mardin, Mus
DEHAP>15 Agri, Igdir, Van
DEHAP>10 Bitlis, Siirt
DEHAP>5 Tunceli
DEHAP>2 Kars

i>1 Bayburt

[minionofmidas]

And for an unshaded second place map...

CHP Adana, Adiyaman, Amasya, Ankara 1&2, Balikesir, Bursa, Canakkale, Corum, Denizli, Erzincan, Eskisehir, Gaziantep, Giresun, Hatay, Igdir, Istanbul 1-3, Kahramanmaras, Karaman, Kirsehir, Kocaeli, Malatya, Nevsehir, Nigde, Ordu, Samsun, Sinop, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon, Tunceli, Yalova, Zonguldak

AKP Agri, Antalya, Artvin, Batman, Bayburt, Bitlis, Diyarbakir, Izmir 2, Kars, Mardin, Mus, Siirt, Sirnak, Tekirdag, Usak, Van

DYP Ardahan, Aydin, Bartin, Bilecik, Bolu, Burdur, Cankiri, Düzce, Isparta, Karabük, Kastamonu, Kilis, Kirklareli, Kütahya, Manisa, Mugla

MHP Afyon, Aksaray, Erzurum, Gümüshane, Kayseri, Kirikkale, Konya, Mersin, Osmaniye, Yozgat

GP Edirne, Izmir 1, Sakarya

DEHAP Bingöl, Sanliurfa

ANAP Rize

i Elazig, Hakkari

(independent vote is total for all independents btw, not the independents who actually won a seat respectively in Bayburt, Elazig, and Hakkari. Although I don't know whether there was more than one indy in these provinces. The "independent" figure I have for Kars, though, would have been good for a seat if it was the single highest polling independent, and thence must be the sum total of several independents, which is why I assume the same for all the other "independent" figures I have.)

[minionofmidas]

Legend:
Province / no. of seats / 1999 seat distribution
if changed from 99: no. of seats in 2002 / 2002 seat distribution without a threshold (actual seat distribution)

Parties winning the same no. of seats are ordered by national vote totals in the 99 results, by provincial vote total in the 2002 results.

Adana 14   DSP 5, MHP 5, ANAP 2, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 5 (8), CHP 3 (6), DYP 2, MHP 2, DEHAP 1, GP 1   
Adiyaman 6   FP 4, ANAP 1, DYP 1   
5   AKP 3 (4), CHP 1 (1), DEHAP 1
Afyon      7   MHP 3, DSP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (6), MHP 1, DYP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Agri      4   MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
5   DEHAP 3, AKP 1 (3), CHP 1 (2)
Aksaray      4   MHP 2, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (4)
Amasya      4   MHP 2, DSP 1, FP 1
3   AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Ankara 1   14   DSP 6, MHP 3, FP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
      15   AKP 6 (8), CHP 6 (7), MHP 1, GP 1, DYP 1
Ankara 2   14   MHP 4, FP 4, DSP 3, DYP 2, ANAP 1
         AKP 8 (9), CHP 4 (5), MHP 1, GP 1
Antalya      12   DSP 3, MHP 3, DYP 3, ANAP 2, FP 1
13   CHP 5 (8), AKP 3 (5), DYP 2, MHP 1, ANAP 1, GP 1
Ardahan      2   DSP 1, DYP 1
CHP 1 (1), DYP 1, AKP 0 (1)
Artvin      2   DSP 1, DYP 1
CHP 1 (1), AKP 1 (1)
Aydin      8   DSP 3, MHP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
CHP 2 (4), DYP 2, AKP 2 (4), MHP 1, GP 1
Balikesir      9   DSP 3, MHP 2, DYP 2, FP 1, ANAP 1   
8   AKP 4 (5), CHP 2 (3), DYP 1, GP 1   
Bartin      2   DSP 1, ANAP 1
AKP 2      
Batman      4   FP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 3, AKP 1 (3), CHP 0 (1)
Bayburt      2   MHP 1, FP 1
i 1 (1), AKP 1 (1)
Bilecik      2   DSP 1, MHP 1
         AKP 1 (1), DYP 1, CHP 0 (1)
Bingöl      3   FP 1, DYP 1, i 1
AKP 2 (3), DEHAP 1   
Bitlis      4   MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         DEHAP 2, AKP 1 (3), unabh. 1 (1)
Bolu      5   DSP 1, MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
3   AKP 3 (3)
Burdur      3   DSP 1, MHP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 1 (2), DYP 1, CHP 1 (!)
Bursa      16   DSP 6, MHP 3, ANAP 3, FP 2, DYP 2
AKP 8 (12), CHP 3 (4), DYP 2, GP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1
Canakkale   4   DSP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (2), DYP 1
Cankiri      3   MHP 2, FP 1
AKP 3 (3)
Corum      5   MHP 3, AKP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (4), CHP 1 (1)
Denizli      7   DSP, MHP, DYP 2, ANAP 1
AKP 2 (4), CHP 2 (3), DYP 1, GP 1, MHP 1
Diyarbakir   11   FP 4, ANAP 3, DYP 3, DSP 1
10   DEHAP 7, AKP 2 (8), DYP 1, CHP 0 (2)
Düzce      0   (part of Bolu)
3   AKP 3 (3)
Edirne      4   DSP 3, ANAP 1
         CHP 2 (3), GP 1, DYP 1, AKP 0 (1)
Elazig      5   FP 2, MHP 1, DYP 1, i 1
         AKP 4 (4), i 1 (1)
Erzincan      3   MHP 1, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Erzurum      8   MHP 3, FP 3, DYP 2
7   AKP 6 (7), MHP 1   
Eskisehir   6   DSP 3, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
AKP 2 (3), CHP 2 (3), DYP 1, GP 1   
Gaziantep   9   MHP 3, DSP 2, FP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
10   AKP 5 (7), CHP 2 (3), DEHAP 1, GP 1, MHP 1
Giresun      5   DSP 1, MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (4), CHP 1 (1)   
Gümüshane   2   MHP 1, FP 1
AKP 2 (2)   
Hakkari      3   FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 2, unabh. 1 (1), CHP 0 (1), AKP 0 (1)
Hatay      10   MHP 3, DSP 2, FP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
AKP 4 (5), CHP 4 (5), MHP 1, DYP 1   
Igdir      2   FP 2
DEHAP 2, CHP 0 (1), i 0 (1)
Isparta      4   MHP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
      5   AKP 3 (4), DYP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Istanbul 1   24   DSP 10, FP 5, ANAP 5, MHP 3, DYP 1
AKP 11 (14), CHP 8 (10), GP 1, DEHAP 1, ANAP 1, MHP 1, SP 1
Istanbul 2   21   DSP 8, FP 6, ANAP 4, MHP 2, DYP 1
AKP 9 (13), CHP 5 (8), GP 2, MHP 1, DEHAP 1, SP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
Istanbul 3   24   DSP 9, FP 5, ANAP 5, MHP 3, DYP 2
      25   AKP 11 (16), CHP 6 (9), GP 2, DEHAP 2, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1, SP 1
Izmir 1      12   DSP 7, ANAP 3, MHP 1, DYP 1
CHP 4 (8), GP 3, AKP 2 (4), MHP 1, DYP 1, DEHAP 1
Izmir 2      12   DSP 7, MHP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
CHP 5 (8), AKP 2 (4), GP 2, DYP 2, MHP 1
Kahramanmaras   9   MHP 3, FP 3, DYP 2, ANAP 1
8   AKP 6 (7), CHP 1 (1), DYP 1
Karabük      3   DSP 1, MHP 1, DYP 1
AKP 3 (3)
Karaman   3   DSP 1, MHP 1, FP 1
AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Kars      3   DSP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         DEHAP 1, AKP 1 (2), CHP 1 (!)
Kastamonu   4   DSP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (3), DYP 1, MHP 1, CHP 0 (1)
Kayseri      8   MHP 4, FP 2, DSP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 6 (7), MHP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Kilis      2   DSP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (2)
Kirikkale   4   MHP 2, FP 1, ANAP 1
         AKP 3 (3), MHP 1, CHP 0 (1)
Kirklareli   3   DSP 2, ANAP 1
CHP 2 (2), DYP 1, AKP 0 (1)
Kirsehir      3   MHP 2, DSP 1
         AKP 1 (2), CHP 1 (1), MHP 1
Kocaeli      10   DSP 3, FP 3, MHP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
9   AKP 6 (6), CHP 2 (3), GP 1
Konya      16   FP 6, MHP 5, DSP 2, DYP 2, ANAP 1
AKP 11 (14), MHP 2, CHP 1 (2), DYP 1, SP 1
Kütahya      6   MHP 2, DYP 2, DSP 1, FP 1
AKP 5 (6), DYP 1
Malatya      7   MHP 3, FP 3, ANAP 1
AKP 5 (5), CHP 2 (2)
Manisa      10   DSP 3, MHP 3, DYP 2, FP 1, ANAP 1
AKP 4 (6), DYP 2, CHP 2 (4), GP 1, MHP 1
Mardin      6   ANAP 2, DYP 2, DSP 1, FP 1
         DEHAP 4, AKP 1 (3), CHP 1 (2), i 0 (1)
Mersin      12   MHP 6, DSP 4, ANAP 1, DYP 1
CHP 4 (7), MHP 2, AKP 2 (5), DEHAP 1, DYP 1, GP 1, ANAP 1
Mugla      6   DSP 3, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
CHP 2 (4), DYP 2, AKP 1 (2), MHP 1
Mus      4   DSP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 3, AKP 1 (2), CHP 0 (1), i 0 (1)
Nevsehir   3   MHP 2, AKP 1
AKP 3 (3)
Nigde      3   DSP 1, MHP 1, DYP 1
AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)      
Ordu      7   DSP 2, ANAP 2, MHP 1, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 5 (5), CHP 1 (2), DYP 1
Osmaniye   4   MHP 3, DYP 1
AKP 2 (3), MHP 2, CHP 0 (1)
Rize      3   ANAP 2, FP 1
AKP 2 (3), ANAP 1
Sakarya      6   FP 2, DSP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 4 (6), GP 2
Samsun      10   DSP 3, MHP 2, FP 2, DYP 2, ANAP 1
9   AKP 6 (7), CHP 2 (2), DYP 1
Sanliurfa   11   FP 4, DYP 4, ANAP 2, MHP 1
         AKP 3 (7), DEHAP 3, DYP 2, ANAP 1, CHP 1 (3), MHP 1, i 0 (1)
Siirt      3   DYP 2, ANAP 1
DEHAP 2, AKP 1 (1), i 0 (1), CHP 0 (1)
Sinop      3   DSP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Sivas      6   FP 3, MHP 2, DYP 1
         AKP 4 (5), CHP 1 (1), BBP 1
Sirnak      3   FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 3, AKP 0 (2), i 0 (1)
Tekirdag   5   DSP 3, ANAP 1, DYP 1
CHP 2 (3), AKP 1 (2), GP 1, DYP 1
Tokat      6   MHP 3, FP 2, DYP 1
7   AKP 4 (5), CHP 2 (2), MHP 1
Trabzon      7   MHP 2, AKP 2, DSP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1   
8   AKP 5 (6), CHP 1 (2), DYP 1, MHP 1
Tunceli      2   DYP 1, i 1
DEHAP 1, CHP 1 (2)
Usak      3   DSP 2, MHP 1
         CHP 2 (2), AKP 1 (1)
Van      7   AKP 3, ANAP 2, MHP 1, DYP 1
         DEHAP 4, AKP 3 (6), CHP 0 (1)
Yalova      2   DSP 1, ANAP 1
AKP 1 (1), CHP 1 (1)
Yozgat      6   MHP 3, FP 2, ANAP 1
         AKP 4 (5), MHP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Zonguldak   6   AKP 4, MHP 1, ANAP 1
5   AKP 2 (3), CHP 2 (2), DYP 1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any mistakes are my own stupid fault, obviously:



The two light red blobs in the NE corner are not the same party as all the pinkish red below.

[minionofmidas]

I'd've used Green for DEHAP.

[Verily]

Things are getting interesting. The CHP (the only other party to win seats last time) and DSP (which had the most seats in 1999 but collapsed in 2002) will unite for the election in opposition to the AKP. Together, the most recent poll put them at 22%, to 29% for the AKP. That poll also said that the DYP, MHP and GP would pass the 10% threshold with 12%, 12% and 10%, respectively.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6666003.stm

[minionofmidas]

Things are getting interesting. The CHP (the only other party to win seats last time) and DSP (which had the most seats in 1999 but collapsed in 2002) will unite for the election in opposition to the AKP. Together, the most recent poll put them at 22%, to 29% for the AKP. That poll also said that the DYP, MHP and GP would pass the 10% threshold with 12%, 12% and 10%, respectively.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6666003.stm

GP!? Are you sure? Everything else sounds about right to me...

[Verily]

Things are getting interesting. The CHP (the only other party to win seats last time) and DSP (which had the most seats in 1999 but collapsed in 2002) will unite for the election in opposition to the AKP. Together, the most recent poll put them at 22%, to 29% for the AKP. That poll also said that the DYP, MHP and GP would pass the 10% threshold with 12%, 12% and 10%, respectively.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6666003.stm

GP!? Are you sure? Everything else sounds about right to me...

The poll gave them 10.07%, but yes

[Middle-aged Europe]

And the Turkish president vetoed the AKP's presidential election reform (which would have allowed a direct popular election) today.

[freek]

And the Turkish president voted the AKP's presidential election reform (which would have allowed a direct popular election) today.

Do you mean vetoed?

[Middle-aged Europe]

And the Turkish president voted the AKP's presidential election reform (which would have allowed a direct popular election) today.

Do you mean vetoed?

Ooops, sorry, yes.

I will edit my originial post.

[minionofmidas]

Election tomorrow.

AKP way ahead (and voteshare up) in all polls, although depending on who else gets in they *could* lose their majority - it's not really expected though. If all goes perfectly, they could win that elusive two-thirds majority of seats.
CHP will be in again, but its voteshare will be down.
MHP will probably return to parliament.
Both DP and GP are polling under 10 but have outside chances of getting in.
And of course, anywhere from 20-35 indies are expected to be elected, most of them de facto Kurdish Nationalists.

[Hash]

Yuck.

[minionofmidas]

Yuck.

Oh yeah, some inside estimate/spin/whatever you want to call it from an Armenian community activist, on the AKP's share of the Christian vote:
2002 5%
2007 67%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yuck.

Oh yeah, some inside estimate/spin/whatever you want to call it from an Armenian community activist, on the AKP's share of the Christian vote:
2002 5%
2007 67%.

That high? Interesting.

[minionofmidas]

Yuck.

Oh yeah, some inside estimate/spin/whatever you want to call it from an Armenian community activist, on the AKP's share of the Christian vote:
2002 5%
2007 67%.

That high? Interesting.

He may of course be lying.

[freek]

And of course, anywhere from 20-35 indies are expected to be elected, most of them de facto Kurdish Nationalists.

AFAIK, DTP (The Kurdish party) does not take part as a party, because they would never pass the 10% threshold. Instead, they only field "independent" candidates.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, polls have closed a while ago. Apparently, there was an extremely high turnout. First results are expected during the evening.

[Middle-aged Europe]

n-tv (German news channel) now reports:

More than 50% for AKP and 15% for CHP according to exit polls. MHP also in.

[ag]

I don't understand Turkish,  but electoral websites seem to be understandable. If I read it right, with just under a third of precincts (32.38%) reporting we have (in brackets change from the 2002 election):

AKP 50.32% (+16.04%)
CHP 16.36% (-3.03%)
MHP 14.31% (+5.95%)

Nobody else comes even close to 10% (something called BGMZ is the closest w/ 6.18% - 5.18% more thant the last time).

If this holds, this is a landslide!