Turkey General Elections, 2007
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ag
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« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2007, 11:17:30 AM »

And you can follow the returns at http://secim2007.ntvmsnbc.com/default.aspx

PS BGMZ seems to be Kurdish (by the look of where they are winning)
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ag
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« Reply #26 on: July 22, 2007, 11:24:39 AM »

With 38.97% reporting it changes a bit:

AKP 49.75% (+15.47%)
CHP 16.97% (-2.42%)
MHP 14.52% (+6.16%)
BGMZ 5.9% (+4.9%)
DP 5.78 (-3.76%)
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ag
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« Reply #27 on: July 22, 2007, 11:26:21 AM »

Provincewise it is equally landslidish. CHP and BGMZ are winning in 5 provinces each and MHP leads in 2. Everywhere else (and that is a lot of provinces) AKP is in the lead.
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ag
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« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2007, 11:35:25 AM »

A few more precints reporting (44.4%) and the results become marginally less striking - but only marginally. DP has just become 4th (still hopeless):

AKP 49.17% (+14.89%)
CHP 17.73% (-1.66%)
MHP 14.59% (+6.23%)
DP 5.75 (-3.79%)
BGMZ 5.6% (+4.6%)
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2007, 11:43:56 AM »
« Edited: July 22, 2007, 11:48:15 AM by Rock Strongo (aka Lance Uppercut) »

Stupid question: With the MHP and (probably) several Independents elected to the parliament, is it possible that the AKP might actually win less seats than last time?


2002:
34.3% for AKP, 19.4% for CHP... which roughly translates into ca. 64% of the seats for AKP.

2007:
48.75% for AKP, 18.7% for CHP, 14.66% for MHP... which should roughly translates into ca. 59% of the seats for AKP.
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ag
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« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2007, 11:44:05 AM »

Some regional results (I will report for all parties locally getting 5% or more). Istanbul (European side) seems late reporting (only 14.99% of precincts).  AKP is a bit weak here, though, unlike in most of the rest of the European part of the country it is comfortably leading here (in and around Edirne is the last redoubt of CHP). So far, the local results are:

AKP 44.41% (+7.71%)
CHP 27.31% (+3.25%)
MHP 10.83% (+5.79%)
BGMZ 5.11% (+5.05%)
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ag
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« Reply #31 on: July 22, 2007, 11:50:33 AM »

So, past the halfway mark. Further slow erosion of AKP lead - but it is still big. w/ 51.98% reporting

AKP 48.53% (+14.25%)
CHP 18.48% (-0.91%)
MHP 14.71% (+6.35%)
DP 5.73 (-3.81%)
BGMZ 5.26% (+4.26%)

BTW, on closer reading (if you can call it reading - I don't know Turkish), seems like BGMZ stands for "independent".
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ag
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« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2007, 11:53:27 AM »

Looks like this might be the result.  But CHP wouldn't, on its own, have a blocking minority. That would, of course, mean dealing with the independents.
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ag
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« Reply #33 on: July 22, 2007, 12:07:34 PM »

Another regional.  Ankara (55.96% reporting)

AKP 50.74% (+12.63%)
CHP 24.63% (-3.41%)
MHP 15.5% (+6.91%)
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ag
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« Reply #34 on: July 22, 2007, 12:12:46 PM »

Approaching the 2/3 mark. With 65.34% reporting

AKP 47.84% (+13.56%)
CHP 19.51% (+0.12%)
MHP 14.71% (+6.35%)
DP 5.65 (-3.89%)
BGMZ 4.98% (+3.98%)
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ag
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« Reply #35 on: July 22, 2007, 12:17:22 PM »

Another regional. Diyarbakir (70.53% reporting):

BGMZ 47.56% (+46.21%)
AKP 41.78% (+25.82%)

Nobody else gets even 5%

For once, it seems, most Kurdish votes will not be wasted Smiley

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ag
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« Reply #36 on: July 22, 2007, 12:53:15 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2007, 01:14:17 PM by ag »

AKP is up accross the board, in all provinces (unless I missed one or two). There is only one province where it is below 20% (Tunceli, where with 14.34% it is in the third spot - the only province  where it is not, at least, second; even there, though, its vote share has more than dobled, having been just 6.67% the last time). Otherwise, the only area where it is truly weak this time is the European frontier around Edirne - still, its vote share there improved sharply.  Overall, in all but 13 provinces AKP is in the lead, independents lead in 6, CHP in 5 and MHP in just 2.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #37 on: July 22, 2007, 01:23:44 PM »

Another regional. Diyarbakir (70.53% reporting):

BGMZ 47.56% (+46.21%)
AKP 41.78% (+25.82%)

Nobody else gets even 5%

For once, it seems, most Kurdish votes will not be wasted Smiley



Wouldn't this mean a lot of Kurdish votes (those for the BGMZ at least) would be wasted?  Although perhaps not a majority in Diyarbakir, if over 77.1% of the remaining 10.66% of the vote (or an additional 8.22% of the vote) went to the CHP, MHP or successful independent candidates.  It's interesting that fewer Kurdish votes have been wasted due to poorer performance of formal Kurdish parties.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #38 on: July 22, 2007, 02:16:12 PM »

Another regional. Diyarbakir (70.53% reporting):

BGMZ 47.56% (+46.21%)
AKP 41.78% (+25.82%)

Nobody else gets even 5%

For once, it seems, most Kurdish votes will not be wasted Smiley



Wouldn't this mean a lot of Kurdish votes (those for the BGMZ at least) would be wasted?  Although perhaps not a majority in Diyarbakir, if over 77.1% of the remaining 10.66% of the vote (or an additional 8.22% of the vote) went to the CHP, MHP or successful independent candidates.  It's interesting that fewer Kurdish votes have been wasted due to poorer performance of formal Kurdish parties.

To my knowledge this happens in every Turkish election. The reason the threshold is so high in the first place is mainly to keep the Kurds out iirc.

As you can well imagine, If I was Turkish there would no way I'd vote for any of the three parties which look like getting into Parliament...

Any idea on the Seat breakdown yet? AKP Majority or if not, Is a AKP-MHP coalition a possibility? (or at least a minority goverment..). This election has been a good example of the absurdity of having a 10% threshold (but we knew that already.)
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Colin
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« Reply #39 on: July 22, 2007, 02:31:49 PM »

Another regional. Diyarbakir (70.53% reporting):

BGMZ 47.56% (+46.21%)
AKP 41.78% (+25.82%)

Nobody else gets even 5%

For once, it seems, most Kurdish votes will not be wasted Smiley



Wouldn't this mean a lot of Kurdish votes (those for the BGMZ at least) would be wasted?  Although perhaps not a majority in Diyarbakir, if over 77.1% of the remaining 10.66% of the vote (or an additional 8.22% of the vote) went to the CHP, MHP or successful independent candidates.  It's interesting that fewer Kurdish votes have been wasted due to poorer performance of formal Kurdish parties.

To my knowledge this happens in every Turkish election. The reason the threshold is so high in the first place is mainly to keep the Kurds out iirc.

No it was mostly an attempt to add stability to the system of weak Turkish coalitions by making sure that the threshold was so high that it would create more stable coalitions or majority governments.

There is only one province where it is below 20% (Tunceli, where with 14.34% it is in the third spot - the only province  where it is not, at least, second; even there, though, its vote share has more than dobled, having been just 6.67% the last time).

Which is the only province in all of Turkey with an Alevi majority who wouldn't be too happy with a conservative Sunni as Prime Minister.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #40 on: July 22, 2007, 02:57:23 PM »

Another regional. Diyarbakir (70.53% reporting):

BGMZ 47.56% (+46.21%)
AKP 41.78% (+25.82%)

Nobody else gets even 5%

For once, it seems, most Kurdish votes will not be wasted Smiley



Wouldn't this mean a lot of Kurdish votes (those for the BGMZ at least) would be wasted?  Although perhaps not a majority in Diyarbakir, if over 77.1% of the remaining 10.66% of the vote (or an additional 8.22% of the vote) went to the CHP, MHP or successful independent candidates.  It's interesting that fewer Kurdish votes have been wasted due to poorer performance of formal Kurdish parties.
Independents are exempt from the 10% threshold. Which is why the Kurdish nationalists ran no slates this time, but instead fielded their candidates as independents.

Of course, how many of those indies get in in seats where they should really win several depends on vote management - as each one of their candidates will be treated as his own party.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #41 on: July 22, 2007, 03:17:05 PM »

With 99.01% reporting

AKP 46.71 - ca.340 seats
CHP 20.90 - ca.113 seats (contrary to expectations, their vote share actually notched up a tad)
MHP 14.32 - ca.70 seats
DP 5.37
GP 3.03
SP 2.33
inds 5.15 - ca.27 seats
others 2.19

Source: Hürriyet

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ag
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« Reply #42 on: July 22, 2007, 03:37:40 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2007, 03:47:10 PM by ag »

So, it does look like AKP looses a few seats, despite stellar performance. Even w/ independents they won't have 2/3, but the opposition is also divided this time. The key quetions are: how many of the independents are really Kurdish party representatives (I believe, if there are 20 they are entitled to form the fourth faction). And then, the referendum.

BTW, it looks like AKP will have at least 1 representative from every electoral district other than Tunceli (there both representatives will be independents).  A trully broad-based performance.

PS of the independents it looks like 22 come from the areas where they COULD be Kurdish. Whether all of them ARE, and/or whether there are some of them who hate the rest and/or whether some of the independents elected elsewhere come from diaspora Kurds will determine whether Kurds get a faction of their own.
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ag
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« Reply #43 on: July 22, 2007, 03:52:17 PM »

There is only one province where it is below 20% (Tunceli, where with 14.34% it is in the third spot - the only province  where it is not, at least, second; even there, though, its vote share has more than dobled, having been just 6.67% the last time).

Which is the only province in all of Turkey with an Alevi majority who wouldn't be too happy with a conservative Sunni as Prime Minister.
[/quote]

BTW, the neighboring province of Bingol has given AKP it's highest vote share in the country (71.01%).  Some tender neighborly interprovincial relations, I surmise Smiley.
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ag
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« Reply #44 on: July 22, 2007, 04:03:43 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2007, 04:10:19 PM by ag »

Nearly final results (99.84% reporting, from Hurriyet)

AKP 46.57% (+12.29%) 343 seats
CHP 20.82% (+1.43%) 111 seats
MHP 14.25% (+5.89%) 69 seats
DP 5.38 (-4.16%) no seats
BGMZ 5.19% (+4.19%) 27 seats
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #45 on: July 22, 2007, 04:09:35 PM »

Precincts to report (at 99.84)
25 in Izmir 1
52 in Izmir 2
11 in Adana
1 in Agri
3 in Antalya
1 in Bolu
23 in Diyarbakir
56 in Elazig
8 in Eskisehir
10 in Hakkari
30 in Hatay
6 in Mersin
2 in Mus
14 in Tekirdag
1 in Tokat

All but at most two or three of the elected indies are DTP.
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ag
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« Reply #46 on: July 22, 2007, 04:15:15 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2007, 04:20:49 PM by ag »

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!
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ag
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« Reply #47 on: July 22, 2007, 04:25:12 PM »

The last few seats seem to be extremely volatile. With just a few more precincts reporting, a couple seem to be changin hands. Now, with 99.9% it is:

AKP 46.45% (+12.17%) 341 seats
CHP 20.79% (+1.4%) 112 seats
MHP 14.42% (+6.06%) 70 seats
DP 5.37 (-4.17%) no seats
BGMZ 5.2% (+4.2%) 27 seats
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #48 on: July 22, 2007, 04:29:01 PM »

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!
None of the other independents listed separately. "Diger Bagimsizlar" is clearly "diverse independents".

Updated result: 99.88% reporting
AKP 46.45%
CHP 20.79%
MHP 14.42%
DP 5.37%
GP 3.02%
SP 2.32%
i 5.20%
remainder 2.43% (not sure why this is went up so)

25 in Izmir 1
31 in Izmir 2
10 in Adana
1 in Agri
1 in Bolu
56 in Elazig
10 in Hakkari
30 in Hatay
2 in Mus
14 in Tekirdag
1 in Tokat
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #49 on: July 22, 2007, 04:32:41 PM »

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!
There is such a thing as too impressive vote management:

Agri
1.  AKP   
  % 63,29   103.318  5 seats
2.  B: M.KUTLAY   
  % 12,46   20.341  0 seats
3.  B: H.YILMAZ   
  % 10,42   17.017  0 seats

324 votes more for Kutlay and less for Yilmaz would have been enough to take a seat.

 
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