French legislative elections, 2007

[Hash]

Start.

A BVA projection for seats gives this:

UMP- 288 to 344 (UMP 2002- 355)
PS- 148 to 200 (PS 2002- 140)
PCF- 14 to 18 (PCF 2002- 21)
MD- 8 to 13 (UDF 2002 29)
DVD- 4 to 7 (DVD 2002 - 5)
Ecolo/VERTS- 0 to 6 (VERTS 2002- 3)
FN- 0 (=)

20 seats needed to form a parliamentary group

Attached poll:

UMP 35
PS 30
MD 9
FN 8
Verts 6
LO/LCR 5
DVD 4
PCF 3

[Harry Hayfield]

I've managed to download France Parliament 2002 but it makes no sense at all. Can you explain how the French system works?

[Angel of Death]

There is a two round run-off election for every seat. However, there is a twist that you only need to get 1/8th of the vote to make it to the second round. I believe in practice parties withdraw from the second round in order to prevent vote splitting, especially if the far-right makes it to the second round.
I don't know what clamoring there is for a change to proportional representation, although I believe I heard Bayrou make some noise about it.

[Hash]

You need 12.5% to qualify for round two (if only one candidate breaks 12.5 or none break it, the top two proceed to R2), or alternatively you win 50% of the vote by R1. For R2, it's FPTP.

What's interesting, if there is a tie in R2, the oldest candidate is elected.

[Verily]

You need 12.5% to qualify for round two (if only one candidate breaks 12.5 or none break it, the top two proceed to R2), or alternatively you win 50% of the vote by R1. For R2, it's FPTP.

What's interesting, if there is a tie in R2, the oldest candidate is elected.

All I can say is that France's electoral system is stupid.

[2952-0-0]

What's the chance that Sarkozy will be forced into cohabitation with, say, Premier Laurent Fabius, or something like that?

[Colin]

What party has the abbreviation DVD?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What party has the abbreviation DVD?

None; it means Diverse Right (ie; Right-wing "Independents")

[Hash]

What's the chance that Sarkozy will be forced into cohabitation with, say, Premier Laurent Fabius, or something like that?

Very unlikely. 55% hope Sarkozy will have a majority.

[minionofmidas]

You need 12.5% to qualify for round two

12.5% of registered voters, not of votes.

In practice, you almost always get a runoff between the two top-placed candidates.

[Hash]

Update.

Since 80% of UDF MPs supported Sarkozy, they're running as "Presidential Majority-UDF dissidents" seperate from the MD.

Take that idiotic Bayrou!

[Hash]

The Parti Radical de Gauche proposes that they join with Borloo's Parti Radical to form a "great centrist party"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Parti Radical de Gauche proposes that they join with Borloo's Parti Radical to form a "great centrist party"

Reuniting the old Radical Party then?

[Hash]

Perhaps, would be interesting and would provide yet more bad news to looney toon Bayrou.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

1st run

Ump: 40%
PS: 28%
UDP-MD: 10%
FN: 8%
Green: 4%
communist: 3,5%
extreme left: 3%
MPF: 2%
CPNT: 1%
MRC: 0,5%

2 turn

if:

UMP: 56%
PS: 44%

if:

UMP: 51%
PS: 38%
UDF-MD: 11%

[Hash]

It would'nt be surprising if the UMP got 2/3 of the seats- or more.

[Hash]

Around 7550 candidates for 577 seats, of those 45% are female candidates. 13 candidates average per riding.

8456 candidates in 2002, average of 14.65 candidates per riding. 38.5% were female candidates

[Hash]

Bayrou's Mo Dem is running 535 candidates (200 women, 335 men). 0 to 4 seats predicted for Bayrou's cronies.

25 of 29 UDF incumbents will run under the Parti social libéral européen banner.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You don't seriously think that he'll lose his own seat, do you? He seems to have a great deal of personal popularity in the area.

[Hash]

A BVA projection in terms of seat:

317-381 UMP (350+9 2002)
151-200 PS (141+8 2002)
14-21 PCF
4-11 DVD
1-2 Ecolo (3 verts 2002)
0-4 MoDem (26+3 2002)

[Hash]

You don't seriously think that he'll lose his own seat, do you? He seems to have a great deal of personal popularity in the area.

Bayrou is quite popular in his departement, but the UMP is running a leader of some local countryside-farmer's organization that's quite important.

[Hash]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Social_Liberal_Party

The PSLE is the new name for those UDF (80% of them) who won't support F. Bayrou.

Found this projection on Le Monde.fr:

UMP 365-415 (40%)
PS 137-153 (28%)
MoDem 2-10 (15%)

72% sure

Gov composition: 61% happy, 24% unhappy

[Hash]

The above mentioned poll, TNS-Soffres looks unrealistic.

It gives 3.5% to the FN, 4% to the Greens, 3.5% to the PCF, 3.5% for LO-LCR, 1.5% for MPF, 1% for CPNT.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Second round results by constituency are now on the Le Monde site: http://www.lemonde.fr/web/panorama/0,11-0@2-823448,32-901390,0.html

Results of the 2002 legislative elections by constituency can be found here: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/f/france/france2002index.shtml

Anyone know were to find a list of candidates? (mainly to see which incumbents are standing down)

[minionofmidas]

Interesting map here...http://www.lemonde.fr/web/infog/0,47-0@2-823448,54-913113,0.html
Shows which parties would reach the runoff if voters voted the exact same way as in the general (white: only Socialists and UMP, beige: Socialists, UMP and MD, blue: Socialists, UMP and FN, red: all four.)
Of course, in practice we can expect FAR fewer three ways, and few if any four ways.